The 2025 WNBA season has been marked by a wave of injuries that have affected several of the league’s most prominent stars.
A comprehensive analysis of the situation, based on the injury tracking of The IX Basketball, reveals that 117 players have been absent for a combined total of 868 games. Among those affected are figures of the stature of Breanna Stewart, Caitlin Clark, Napheesa Collier, Jonquel Jones, Jordin Canada, and Rhyne Howard, who have faced prolonged periods off the courts.
In addition, A’ja Wilson and Alyssa Thomas have also suffered physical setbacks that have kept them away from competition.
On the other hand, some players like Courtney Vandersloot, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, Kayla Thornton, Katie Lou Samuelson, and Georgia Amoore, along with some members of the Fever such as Sophie Cunningham, Aari McDonald, and Sydney Colson, will not be able to return this season.
However, the good news is that several of the most important stars have already returned to action, and more players are expected to rejoin their teams as the postseason approaches.
But, what playoff teams or title contenders will benefit most from these returns?
To answer this question, at Alofoke Deportes we analyzed the six teams with the greatest chances of winning the championship, according to the Elo-based forecast model: Lynx, Dream, Aces, Liberty, Mercury, and Fever. We compared their title chances and the Simple Ranking System (SRS) rankings to assess the impact of absences and the expected improvements with the return of key players. To do this, we used the estimated RAPTOR rankings, which allowed us to calculate the point value that the presence of each player contributes to the point differential in a match.
Minnesota Lynx
Napheesa Collier
Status: Returned on August 24 (ankle)
Record in matches without her: 7-3
SRS with/without the absence of Collier: +9.43 vs. +10.64
Title possibilities after adjusting the rankings for Collier’s absence: 58.8% vs. 68%
The Lynx, who have been league leaders, haven’t suffered many injuries. The absence of Collier, who was leading the MVP race before getting injured, makes a significant difference. The loss of two consecutive games without Collier for the first time this season is notable. Her return could improve the team’s performance in the playoffs.
The Lynx are expected to be as powerful as ever with Collier back.
Atlanta Dream
Jordin Canada
Status: Absent since August 13 (hamstrings)
Record in matches without her: 10-5
Rhyne Howard
Status: Returned on August 10 (knee)
Record in matches without her: 7-4
SRS with/without absences: +5.94 vs. +7.10
Title possibilities after adjusting the classifications for their absences: 19.3% vs. 28%
Although neither Canada nor Howard are at the level of Collier or Stewart, both are very valuable players. The return of Canada, along with Howard, is expected to boost the team in the playoffs.
Las Vegas Aces
A’ja Wilson
Status: Returned on July 12 (doll)
Record in matches without her: 1-3
SRS with/without the absence of Wilson: +0.96 vs. +1.47
Title possibilities after adjusting the rankings for Wilson’s absence: 14.1% vs. 21%
The absence of Wilson has affected the team’s statistics. His return demonstrates the impact of a superstar on the team’s performance. The Aces must play at a higher level in the playoffs, but with Wilson, they cannot be ruled out.
New York Liberty
Breanna Stewart
Status: Returned on August 25 (knee)
Record in matches without her: 5-8
Jonquel Jones
Status: Returned on July 22 (ankle)
Record in matches without her: 7-5
SRS with/without absences: +4.01 vs. +5.86
Title possibilities after adjusting the rankings for their absences: 2% vs. 8%
Stewart’s absence has been the most costly of the season. Although the Liberty have struggled, with Stewart and Jones back, they could improve significantly in the postseason.
Phoenix Mercury
Alyssa Thomas
Status: Returned on June 11 (calf)
Record in matches without her: 2-3
Natasha Mack
Status: Returned on June 11 (back)
Record in matches without her: 6-4
SRS with/without its absences: +3.39 vs. +4.10
Title possibilities after adjusting the classifications for their absences: 3.6% vs. 7%
Thomas is an MVP candidate, and her absence cost the team points. Mack is having a great defensive season. With both players healthy, the Mercury will improve in the playoffs.
Indiana Fever
Caitlin Clark
Status: Absent since July 15th (ingle)
Record in matches without her: 12-13
SRS with/without absences: +1.90 vs. +2.46
Title possibilities after adjusting the rankings for Clark’s absence: 1.6% vs. 2%
Clark has been out with injuries. Although advanced metrics underestimate the impact of her injuries, the Fever are better with her on the court. However, it is uncertain how much she will be able to contribute after missing most of the year.
