Evaluating a coach’s performance goes beyond wins and losses; how their teams perform in relation to expectations must also be considered. Did they exceed the experts’ projections? That could indicate that the coach deserves recognition as Coach of the Year. Did they fail to meet those expectations? The situation could become complicated.
This also applies to new coaches. Success is not measured only by winning the championship, but by the ability to get the most out of their squads, exceeding initial expectations.
Through Elo forecasts, the seven first-year WNBA coaches were ranked, evaluating whether their teams are on track to achieve more or fewer wins than expected. In addition, key players who have exceeded performance expectations were highlighted.
Coaches Analysis
Natalie Nakase, Golden State Valkyries:
Projected wins before the season: 8.5. Current win projection: 23.9. Difference: +15.4.
Pleasant surprises: Veronica Burton (+5.1 wins); Temi Fagbenle (+2.4).
Nakase, the favorite for Coach of the Year, has done an exceptional job in shaping the WNBA’s first expansion team in 17 years. The Valkyries are not only more competitive than expected, but they also have almost secured a playoff spot, something a first-year team hasn’t achieved since 1997.
The Nakase team has stood out for its defense, ranking fifth in defensive efficiency and first in points allowed per game, with the lowest effective field goal percentage in the league.Natalie Nakase won a WNBA championship as an assistant with the Las Vegas Aces in 2022.One of Nakase’s achievements is the development of Burton, who, playing a high average of minutes, has become Golden State’s best player.
This type of widespread improvement in the team is a sign of great technical direction.
Karl Smesko, Atlanta Dream:
Projected wins before the season: 21.5. Current win projection: 29.4. Difference: +7.9.
Pleasant surprises: Allisha Gray (+2.0 wins); Maya Caldwell (+2.0).
The Dream, under the direction of Smesko, is among the teams with the highest title probabilities.
The team has achieved this success despite injuries to key players.
Sydney Johnson, Washington Mystics:
Projected wins before the season: 14.5. Current win projection: 17.0. Difference: +2.5.
Pleasant surprises: Sonia Citron (+5.3 wins); Sug Sutton (+2.3).
Although the Mystics will not make the playoffs, Johnson has managed to make the team exceed expectations, despite having a young roster.
Sydney Johnson (right) was an assistant for the Chicago Sky in 2024.
Johnson has managed to get promising performances from his young players.
Lynne Roberts, Los Angeles Sparks:
Projected wins before the season: 20.5. Current win projection: 20.7. Difference: +0.2.
Pleasant surprises: Azura Stevens (+3.4 wins); Dearica Hamby (+2.7).
Although the Sparks probably won’t make the playoffs, they are exceeding initial expectations.
Roberts has overseen continuous improvements in key players.
Rachid Meziane, Connecticut Sun:
Projected wins before the season: 10.5. Current win projection: 10.7. Difference: +0.2.
Pleasant surprises: Leila Lacan (+3.3 wins); Saniya Rivers (+2.5).
The young trio has kept the Sun above its projected win total.
Tyler Marsh, Chicago Sky:
Projected wins before the season: 18.5. Current win projection: 10.7. Difference: -7.8.
Pleasant surprises: Kamilla Cardoso (+0.9 wins); Rachel Banham (+0.3).
The Sky’s performance has been disappointing, despite the expectations generated by the preseason additions.
The frustration in the team is evident.
Chris Koclanes, Dallas Wings:
Projected wins before the season: 19.5. Current win projection: 9.7. Difference: -9.8.
Pleasant surprises: Paige Bueckers (+5.1 wins); Luisa Geiselsoder (+1.2).
The new additions haven’t performed as expected, leading to a standout debut season for Bueckers, but it doesn’t reflect positively on Koclanes’ ability to complement his young star.
