Commissioner’s Cup Final: Lynx vs. Fever
On Tuesday night, the Commissioner’s Cup final presents a duel between two opposing realities in the WNBA. On the one hand, the Minnesota Lynx, representatives of the Western Conference, have been the most consistent team of the season. On the other hand, the Indiana Fever, from the East, have had a season full of ups and downs.However, Clark’s participation in Tuesday’s game is uncertain. He has missed seven games this season, first with a quadriceps injury and more recently with a groin injury. Both Clark and Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier were announced on Sunday as the two players most voted for by fans for the July 19 All-Star Game. While the first-place Lynx (14-2) are the current Commissioner’s Cup champions, the Fever (8-8) are appearing in the Cup final for the first time since the competition debuted in the WNBA season in 2021.“Nobody said this season was going to be perfect for us,” said Indiana guard Caitlin Clark on Sunday. “There are always going to be ups and downs. These are the moments we’ll remember. Everybody’s gone through a little bit of adversity here. I give credit to our group for being able to stay together and know that whatever we have in our locker room is all we need to win. Really proud of our group every day.”
Caitlin Clark
Key Factors for the Match
Here are some of the most important factors that could determine the winner of the Cup.
Collier has played well in the last two games after missing the previous two due to a back injury. She leads the WNBA in scoring (24.5 PPG) and was the MVP of last year’s Commissioner’s Cup final, which the Lynx won against the New York Liberty 94-89. However, Lynx reserve guard Karlie Samuelson left Sunday’s 102-63 victory over Connecticut with a foot injury, so her status for Tuesday is uncertain. And Indiana reserve forward Damiris Dantas is not with the team, as she is playing for Brazil in the AmeriCup tournament in Chile.“I’m going to be day-to-day,” Clark said. “Doing everything I can to put myself in a position to play the next game. That’s always my goal.”
Caitlin Clark
Which team has the experience and the home advantage?
Last season, the Lynx and the Liberty played the Cup final in front of a large crowd at the UBS Arena in Elmont, New York. (The Barclays Center in Brooklyn, the Liberty’s usual court, hosted the NBA draft). Tuesday’s game will be played at the Target Center in Minnesota, which has hosted the All-Star Game and many WNBA Finals games over the years.Clark called the confrontation “a great opportunity”. “They have a great fanbase, a great atmosphere. A team that has a lot of experience with each other. They’ve been to the Finals, they’ve been in big situations, they won the Commissioner’s Cup last year,” Clark said. “The staff will be really important, but we’re excited to go out there and try to get the win.”Who wins the bow battle?Minnesota is the best WNBA team in 3-point shooting percentage (36.3%); Indiana ranks sixth (34.2%). Both teams are at the top of the league in 3-point shot defense: the Fever are first, holding their opponents to 27.5%, and the Lynx are second with 29.1%. Despite Clark’s recent slump in 3-point shooting in the three games prior to his groin injury (1 of 23), the threat of Clark shooting from long range stretches defenses. If she doesn’t play, the Fever still have 3-point threats in Kelsey Mitchell, Lexie Hull, Sophie Cunningham, Sydney Colson, and Aari McDonald. Mitchell, who leads the Fever with 35 three-pointers, is coming off a 32-point performance, the most this season, in a win in Dallas. Hull leads Indiana in 3-point shooting percentage (22 of 44). Kayla McBride, who recently surpassed the 5,000-point mark in her career, is Minnesota’s best 3-point shooter: she has scored 34 with 41% effectiveness. The other four Lynx starters (Collier, Courtney Williams, Bridget Carleton, and Alanna Smith) have at least 19 three-pointers this season. Teams could cancel each other out behind the arc, but if one gets a clear advantage, it could make a big difference in this game.“I think it’s going to feel like a playoff game,” Collier said. “It’s going to be a lot of fun. Our fans show up to every game, but especially in that environment… it’s going to be electric.”
Napheesa Collier
Who sets the pace?
The Fever, with Clark, a counterattack wizard, will go at the fastest possible pace. However, Indiana hasn’t gotten as much from its transition game as it would like. The Fever are eleventh in the league in fast break points per game (10.1). Clark’s absence for seven games obviously affects that, but McDonald, recently signed for the rest of the season after previously playing three games on a hardship contract due to an injury, should help the Fever with their speed and willingness to push the ball. The Lynx, who share the ball well, have been one of the best teams in transition, averaging 12.6 points (third in the WNBA). The Fever, who averaged 14.8 turnovers, must take special care in ball security against the Lynx. Minnesota leads the league in points off turnovers (18.3). Indiana is sixth in that category (16.2).What defense will the Fever present?
Minnesota’s consistency is in part a product of its elite and reliable defense. The Lynx lead the WNBA in points allowed (74.1) and defensive rating (93.9) and are second in opponent field goal percentage (40.1). The Fever are far behind defensively: they allow their opponents 80.1 points and 42.9% shooting, and have a defensive rating of 100.2. However, if Indiana has at least a credible defensive effort and is functioning offensively, that’s the formula for an upset. Aliyah Boston is the defensive anchor of the Fever, and Hull is the force of incessant energy. Hull, McDonald, Mitchell, and Colson can be effective ball defenders. Boston has carried a heavy load all season. She and Natasha Howard will try to contain Collier inside. Boston has also been very good offensively lately: she’s averaging 21.4 points in the Fever’s last five games.
