World Cup Ranking: Analysis of the 64 Aspiring National Teams
The road to the 2026 World Cup is underway, and with it, the exhaustive analysis of the national teams that aspire to glory. With 39 teams already qualified for the tournament to be held in the United States, Mexico, and Canada, the excitement grows as the last tickets are defined. In total, 64 national teams, with the intact dream of lifting the most coveted trophy in football. To determine the ranking of the national teams, two key factors have been considered: the estimated market value of each player, taken from the Transfermarkt website, as an indicator of talent, and the Elo football rankings, which evaluate the performance of the teams based on their results, the quality of the opponent and the importance of the match. Here’s the analysis and ranking of the national teams, after the closing of the November international window.- The 10 worst transfers in Europe this summer
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64. New Caledonia
Currently, there are no players in the New Caledonia squad with an estimated market value.
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Transfermarkt has not estimated the market value of New Caledonian players.63. Suriname
62. Curaçao (ranked)
61. Qatar (classified)
Qatar, with the lowest market value and Elo ranking among the 42 qualified teams, and with an unfavorable goal difference in the last qualifying matches, might not be in the lowest-ranked pot in the December draw.60. South Africa (classified)
59. Haiti (classified)
58. Cabo Verde (qualified)
57. New Zealand (qualified)
56. Iraq
55. Jamaica
54. Jordan (ranked)
53. Saudi Arabia (Ranked)
52. North Macedonia
51. Bosnia and Herzegovina
50. Bolivia
49. Northern Ireland
48. Ghana (qualified)
Ghana, despite having a combined market value 15 times higher than Qatar’s, ranks above it in the Elo rankings. Although it managed to qualify for the 2025 World Cup, it did not achieve qualification for the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations. With players like Antoine Semenyo from Bournemouth and Mohammed Kudus from Tottenham, Ghana could field almost an entire starting eleven of players playing in the top five European leagues. This could explain their recent difficulties. Most of their players have to travel long distances to play, something that does not happen with their African rivals. Currently, among the ranked nations, there isn’t as big a gap between talent and performance as the one shown by the “Black Stars” in recent years.47. Tunisia (qualified)
46. Romania
45. Panama (qualified)
44. Iran (ranked)
43. Albania
42. Congo DR
41. Australia (qualified)
40. Uzbekistan (ranked)
Uzbekistan has surprised by moving up in the ranking. They have drawn five out of six matches against Iran in the last two years, losing only one. Their combination of a defender and a star attacker, a team almost entirely made up of national players and an Italian coach, makes them a difficult opponent. They drew with South Korea in the AFC qualifiers, with seven goals conceded.39. Egypt (ranked)
38. Czech Republic
37. Slovakia
36. Kosovo
35. United States (ranked)
34. Wales
33. South Korea (ranked)
32. Republic of Ireland
The Irish selection is characterized by a defensive and direct game, with five defenders and long balls. Despite not being particularly effective in this style, they have defensive talent, such as Caoimhín Kelleher in goal and Nathan Collins in central defense. Unless Evan Ferguson becomes a star, they lack offensive power to stand out.
31. Paraguay (qualified)
30. Poland
29. Canada (ranked)
28. Algeria (ranked)
27. Ivory Coast (qualified)
26. Uruguay (qualified)
25. Scotland (qualified)
24. Mexico (ranked)
23. Austria (qualified)
22. Japan (ranked)
21. Ukraine
20. Switzerland (qualified)
19. Croatia (qualified)
Croatia, with figures like Ivan Perisic and Luka Modric, despite their age, continues to stand out. Modric, at 40 years old, could be one of the best midfielders in the tournament. Although they no longer play in the best clubs, international football is less demanding.18. Morocco (qualified)
17. Turkey
16. Senegal (qualified)
15. Ecuador (qualified)
14. Colombia (qualified)
The alignment between overall talent and team performance is an interesting aspect. Sometimes, market value does not reflect the actual talent on the field, as in the case of Slovenia. South American teams like Ecuador, Colombia, and Argentina often perform above expectations, due to players like James Rodríguez and Lionel Messi, whose market value is not high due to their age. South American players are often undervalued compared to Europeans.13. Sweden
12. Denmark
11. Belgium (qualified)
10. Norway (qualified)
Norway, considered a “dark horse”, could disappoint, as the success of these teams often exceeds their real possibilities. However, Norway, ranked 11th in Elo, won all qualifying matches, with an adjusted goal difference of +3.0. The formula is simple: Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard are the stars.9. Argentina (qualified)
8. Germany (qualified)
7. Italy
Italy, the Ghana of Europe? After winning the 2020 European Championship, Italy did not qualify for the 2022 World Cup and disappointed in last summer’s European Championship. Now, they need to win two matches in March to avoid missing their second consecutive World Cup. Their main problem is the lack of goals, despite having high-level defenders and complete midfielders. The absence of an offensive star is evident, and although they have talent, their current performance is below expectations, ranking 18th in the Elo rankings.6. Netherlands (qualified)
5. Portugal (qualified)
Football is amazing. Cristiano Ronaldo, at 41 years old, could be a starter in the World Cup, despite having been a substitute in the past.4. Brazil (qualified)
3. Spain
2. France (qualified)
1. England (qualified)
England, with players like Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, and Bukayo Saka, among others, and who did not concede any goals in the qualifying phase. They dominated possession and the quality of their shots was low. If Thomas Tuchel gets this dominant defense to also overcome closed defenses, they will be the favorites.
