Let’s not kid ourselves! The FIFA Club World Cup is turning out to be an entertaining tournament, despite the previous criticisms that seemed accurate. The stadiums, indeed, have been too large, which has caused the stands, with decent attendance, to look empty in large environments. In addition, the controversy of dynamic pricing has failed on several occasions. European teams face fatigue and lack of rhythm, after a break following a grueling season, against teams in top form from other continents. Figures like Ousmane Dembélé from Paris Saint-Germain and Kylian Mbappé from Real Madrid have not participated. The heat and climatic conditions have been extreme, and the decision to schedule the matches of the most attractive European teams in the afternoon (prime time in Europe), in cities like Miami and Charlotte, is questionable.
However, the rust, the weather, the size of the stadiums, and global geopolitics are not the fault of the South American teams, who have proven their worth in recent weeks. Nor are they the fault of the fans who have followed them through this suffocating country. Or the most outstanding names (Erling Haaland of Manchester City, Lionel Messi of Inter Miami, Michael Olise and Kingsley Coman of Bayern Munich, Randal Kolo Muani of Juventus), old familiar stars (Ángel Di María and Nicolás Otamendi of Benfica, Marcos Acuña of River Plate) or exciting young prospects (Lucas Ribeiro Costa of Mamelodi Sundowns, Oscar Ustari of Inter Miami, Alexander Barboza of Botafogo) who have shone so far.This does not take into account Juventus’ visit to the White House, the accusations of racist abuse against Antonio Rüdiger, and other aspects that influence almost any activity or aspect of today’s society.
Alofoke Deportes
We’ve seen PSG and Chelsea fall to South American rivals (Botafogo and Flamengo). We’ve seen Inter Miami defeat a team (Porto) that was in the UEFA Champions League knockout rounds last year. We’ve witnessed electric atmospheres in matches like Bayern Munich against Boca Juniors, and we also saw the best kind of nonsense, as eight goals were scored in the second half of the last two Group A matches (three in Inter Miami against Palmeiras, five in Al Ahly’s 4-4 draw with Porto) and, after both were on the brink of elimination, both Palmeiras and Inter Miami advanced.
And this is just the beginning. On Wednesday morning, nine of the 16 spots in the knockout rounds were secured. So, as teams continue to qualify, let’s analyze each of the remaining contenders and why they might or might not lift the strange golden trophy of the Club World Cup in a few weeks.Editor’s Note: This article will be updated on Thursday and Friday as the final four groups (E, F, G, and H) conclude and the remaining round of 16 teams are confirmed.
Why they will win: Ángel Di María and Nicolás Otamendi have turned back the clock. Or should I say, they have kept doing it. The club’s 37-year-old veterans played all but 16 minutes of Benfica in the group stage. Di María scored three goals (tied at the top of the competition on Tuesday afternoon) and leads the team in chances created, expected assists from completed passes, shots on goal, and even total touches. He is relentless. And did I mention he’s 37 years old?
Otamendi, for his part, stopped Bayern’s Harry Kane for a while and has been one of the main reasons why Benfica reaches the knockout phase without having conceded a goal in 243 minutes. He is the first in the team in defensive interventions, has won 81% of his duels and, yes, he is also the first in the team in progressive carries and progressive passes. The goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin has also been fantastic, and players like the forward Vangelis Pavlidis and the defensive midfielder Leandro Barreiro have been strong. But two proud and old veterans lead this proud and old club in the qualifiers.Why they won’t win: Their record against good teams… isn’t good. In the last 12 months, Benfica has played 10 matches against teams in the top 20 of the Opta rankings. They lost six, drew two and won only two, and one of the two was on Tuesday against a Bayern team that tried to rest quite a few starters (and still generated many more chances), with two draws and six defeats. They only scored more than one goal twice. This is a team almost surprise-proof, but they will not be favorites at all from now on.Botafogo
Title odds, according to ESPN BET: +3300 (equivalent to 2.9%) | Title odds, according to Opta: 0.4%How they got here: beat Seattle Sounders (2-1), beat PSG (1-0), lost against Atletico Madrid (0-1)Round of 16 opponent: Palmeiras (June 28, noon ET, Philadelphia)Why they will win: They sacrifice their bodies. Botafogo’s path to the round of 16 was laborious. They attempted 23 shots against their opponents’ 62. They possessed the ball only 34.8% of the time; no one else below 35% has averaged even 1.0 points per game. But Fogo averaged 2.0 points per game and became the first team to beat PSG since the Parisians became European champions. And they did it with pure effort. Botafogo has blocked 36% of their opponents’ shots (the fifth most in the competition) and has forced opponents to attempt 83% of their shots with at least two defenders between the shot and the goal (11th). They also attempted 12.3 counterattacks per game (11th), scoring the only goal of the match against PSG on a counterattack. Their attack is quite one-dimensional, but Igor Jesus has been clinical: He scored the winning goal in both victories and with shots with a combined xG of 0.2. They protected that advantage against PSG for 54 minutes without failing, and knowing that they would advance as long as they didn’t lose by three or more goals against Atlético de Madrid, they made Atleti work for 87 minutes to score only one. This is something of high effort and a high degree of difficulty.Why they won’t win: The xG god will eventually turn against you. Their goal difference: +1. Their xG difference: minus 4.2. They have conceded only two goals from shots with a value of 6.2 xG. They are playing inspired and intense football, and it’s a pleasure to watch, but… you are not going to win four more games while giving your opponents many more high-quality opportunities.Chelsea
Why they will win: Depth and a strong possession game. Coach Enzo Maresca is used to dealing with an inflated squad and, in this tournament, with its oppressive climate, bloating is a good thing. He has already played with 25 different players, with only right-back Malo Gusto exceeding 195 minutes (star Cole Palmer has only played 166). And despite the massive rotation, Chelsea looked strong for basically five out of six halves. They wilted at the end against Flamengo, but responded to qualify easily.
Regardless of who has been playing, Chelsea has ticked all the right possession boxes: They are sixth in possession rate (63.0%), sixth in passes per possession (9.2), fourth in progressive carries (90.3 per game), and fourth in forced offsides (3.0 per game), and all with the third-most possessions per game (69.0). They will have to beat Benfica without the suspended Nicolas Jackson, which is not optimal, but this is a relatively rested team that plays the type of football they want to play.Why they won’t win: Cole Palmer has the wrong kind of cold (and the misses are still alarming). You probably need your best player to play well to win four knockout rounds, and Palmer has been an absolute factor in his two appearances so far. In fact, since January 20, he has played in 26 games for club and country and has only managed one goal with five assists. Two of those assists came in the Conference League final against Real Betis, but he has attempted 75 shots with a value of 7.6 xG in this long period and has only put one in the net. That’s five steps away from the “bad finishing streak”.
Add Palmer’s problems to a defense that faltered a bit against Flamengo (and had the bad habit of allowing high-quality shot attempts while maintaining the lead in the Premier League), and you won’t have the most stable contender.Flamengo
Title odds, according to ESPN BET: +2200 (equivalent to 4.3%) | Title odds, according to Opta: 0.3%How they got here: beat Esperance (2-0), beat Chelsea (3-1), drew with LAFC (1-1)Round of 16 opponent: Bayern Munich (June 29, 4 p.m. ET, Miami)Why they will win: They take all the good shots. Before coach Filipe Luís changed his lineup a bit for their last match, after having secured first place in Group D, Flamengo allowed one goal in two matches, and it was caused by a series of strange deflections. Meanwhile, they attempted seven shots with a value of at least 0.2 xG and allowed one. It’s hard to lose when you’re taking all the good shots. Brazilian teams have been excellent in this competition, and Flamengo is the best team in Brazil. They play the firm, box-stuffing defense we’ve seen from most South American teams in the Club World Cup, but they don’t launch into counterattacks; instead, they play solid, patient possession football. They maintain the ultra-slow pace and wear down until they create something of high quality. Leo Pereira leads a great defense, Giorgian de Arrascaeta (nine goals and four assists in nine Serie A matches) and Gonzalo Plata (two assists against Chelsea) unleash a diverse attack, and now former Chelsea and Arsenal star midfielder Jorginho is linking the two.Why they won’t win: A slow game doesn’t work so well if you’re losing. It’s true that they came back from a 1-0 deficit to defeat Chelsea, but if they want to make a deep run in this tournament, they will only face increasingly better opponents, and they will probably have to come back again. Theoretically, that’s much harder to do when you play at such a languid pace and your entire game is based on patience. They have also lost only 48 possessions in league games this season; we really don’t know how good their Plan B is because they’ve never had to prove it.Inter Miami
Title odds, according to ESPN BET: +5000 (equivalent to 2.0%) | Title odds, according to Opta: 0.4%How they got here: drew with Al Ahly (0-0), defeated Porto (2-1), drew with Palmeiras (2-2)Round of 16 opponent: Paris Saint-Germain (June 29, noon ET, Atlanta)Why they will win: Messi magic. Until Tuesday, there have been four direct free-kick goals in the Club World Cup. They had a pre-shot average xG of approximately 0.07. But Leo Messi’s, from 23 meters in the second half against Porto, felt like 1.00. The crowd buzzed as Messi prepared it. Everyone expected it to go in, and then it went in. According to Opta’s classification, Inter Miami was the number 4 team in Group A entering the tournament, and it seemed that a Messi team was about to exit a tournament in the group stage for the first time in history. But his free kick set up a surprise against Porto, and his work further from the goal against Palmeiras (he made 12 progressive carries, won five of seven one-on-ones, and altered the center of gravity of the defense for 90 minutes). Inter overcame a frenzied run of cramps to tie with Palmeiras and advance. Beating PSG is probably asking too much, but all that might be needed are a couple of magical moments from a player who is still capable of generating them.Why they won’t win: Okay, alright, beating PSG is almost definitely asking too much. It will take the aforementioned magic, plus a heightened tension from a defense that has strained to the maximum in terms of both skill and effort. Opta’s rankings give Inter only a 16.4% chance of advancing, and even in a game based so heavily on randomness, that seems incredibly optimistic.
Juventus
Title odds, according to ESPN BET: +1800 (equivalent to 5.3%) | Title odds, according to Opta: 4.6%How they got here: beat Al-Ain (5-0), beat Wydad Casablanca (4-1)Round of 16 opponent: Someone from Group H (Real Madrid, RB Salzburg or Al Hilal, location and time to be determined)Why they will win: They are working hard. Igor Tudor took over as coach on March 23 and safely led Juve to fourth place with only one defeat in nine league games. They created a force field around their defensive area and gave their all, allowing few passes per defensive action, blocking tons of shots and making the most of ball recoveries. Juve is also working hard in the US. Even while maintaining mostly comfortable leads that would theoretically allow them to ease off the accelerator, they are third in passes allowed per defensive action (8.5) and sixth in ball recoveries per game (44.0). They conceded a goal due to a careless breakdown against Wydad Casablanca, but it’s almost the only breakdown they’ve suffered. Meanwhile, the attacking trio formed by Randal Kolo Muani, Kenan Yildiz and Francisco Conceição (combined: seven goals, one assist, 10 chances created) has been incredibly accurate. The Juve seems to be taking this competition very seriously.Why they won’t win: Working hard isn’t enough against good teams. In Tudor’s nine league games, Juve played against three solid teams (Bologna, Lazio, and Roma) and drew 1-1 with all three. Combined xG differential in those three games: minus 0.8. In attack, they couldn’t rely on dangerous counterattacks or consistent build-up play, and they were caught a bit more in defense. They weren’t dominated in any way, but they didn’t create many advantages. Starting from Thursday’s match against Manchester City, the competition intensifies significantly for Juve. The high levels of effort have made them almost surprise-proof, but they won’t be favorites in many matches from now on.
Manchester City
Title odds, according to ESPN BET: +450 (equivalent to 18.2%) | Title odds, according to Opta: 18.6%How they got here: defeated Wydad Casablanca (2-0), defeated Al-Ain (6-0)Round of 16 opponent: Someone from Group H (Real Madrid, RB Salzburg or Al Hilal)Why they will win: They are Manchester City. While the qualifying criteria for this competition were quite confusing, the general idea is that the teams in this tournament achieved something particularly notable between 2021 and 2024. City was the best team in the world for a large percentage of that period. They finished third in the Premier League and reached the FA Cup final this year, which for City’s standards was apocalyptic, but both the ceiling and the floor remain ridiculously high. In two Club World Cup matches, Pep Guardiola has played with 25 different players and has scored goals from seven different players, and City is dominating possession, tilting the field, and doing everything we expect City to do.Why they won’t win: We still don’t know what we need to know about the defense. Of the 36 Champions League teams last season, City ranked 32nd in shots allowed per possession (0.15), 32nd in ball recoveries per game (37.9), and 36th in duel attempts; the attack was fine and hogged the ball as expected, but without a healthy Rodri, the second half of City’s lineup was terribly passive. Three defensive signings from January (defensive midfielder Nico Gonzalez, right-back Abdukodir Khusanov, and center-back Vitor Reis) and a June signing (left-back Rayan Aït-Nouri) are among the many players who have seen the field, as has Rodri himself, but Guardiola is still experimenting, and the level of competition is about to increase rapidly. They haven’t conceded a goal yet, but Wydad Casablanca managed 12 shot attempts, and although Al-Ain only managed five, three were worth at least 0.1 xG. The results are inconclusive so far.Palmeiras
Title odds, according to ESPN BET: +2000 (equivalent to 4.8%) | Title odds, according to Opta: 0.9%How they got here: drew with Porto (0-0), defeated Al Ahly (2-0), drew with Inter Miami (2-2)Round of 16 opponent: Botafogo (June 28, noon ET, Philadelphia)Why they will win: They wear down opponents. Winners of 11 trophies in the 2020s, Palmeiras nearly defeated Chelsea in the 2021 Club World Cup final. Despite sending a lot of high-level talent to Europe in that time, no Brazilian team feels more at home on a big stage full of pressure, and they proved it by winning Group A with a streak of brilliance in the second half. This is a rather retrograde attack: Palmeiras are third in the competition for crossing attempts (29.0 per game), second in headed shot percentage (28.0%), and fourth in direct attacks (sequences that start in the defensive half and produce a shot within 20 seconds). But they are still attempting more shots per possession than anyone not named Bayern (0.22), and they are allowing only 0.09 per possession (eighth). In sticky, hot conditions, they keep the game open and wait for you to wilt. It’s working.Why they won’t win: Shot quality. Attempting nearly 2.5 times more shots than your opponent will generally work out pretty well for you, but only eight of their 50 shot attempts have been worth 0.2 xG or more, and they are 20th in the competition in xG per shot (0.14). After wasting a couple of golden opportunities in the opening match against Porto, the shot quality of Chelsea-bound Estevao has quickly regressed, and Palmeiras have converted shots worth 5.3 xG into just three goals. (They scored a fourth on an own goal).
If you’re not making big shots and not maximizing the ones you do, you’re not winning four playoff games.
