USMNT: Pochettino not convincing? Analysis and the challenge against Mexico in the final

The USMNT at the Crossroads: Analysis of Pochettino’s Performance and the Final Against Mexico

Let’s go back in time a little over a month. Before the controversies and provocations, before coach Mauricio Pochettino said “I am not a mannequin”, and before Christian Pulisic played golf at an inopportune moment. Let’s remember the defeat against Switzerland. Now, imagine I tell you that the United States men’s national team (USMNT) would arrive undefeated at the first five Gold Cup matches, with outstanding performances by Diego Luna and Malik Tillman, and that they would play the final against Mexico. You would probably be happy, right? And in general, many USMNT fans are happy. The team hasn’t lost, has overcome adversity, Luna has become a cult idol, and Tillman is about to join Bayer Leverkusen for a figure close to 40 million dollars. Considering that most of the starting players are not in the squad, it has been a successful summer. However, there’s something missing, both this summer and in the Pochettino era: the team still hasn’t played a good game. It has been 15 games since Pochettino took over and we still haven’t seen the USMNT overcome decent and competitive opposition in a systematic and repeatable manner. The United States has capitalized on mistakes against weak teams, struggled to score against defensive rivals, crumbled against talented opponents, and held its own against national teams that might not qualify for the next World Cup. Sunday’s final against Mexico, before a possible Mexican fanbase at Houston’s NRG Stadium, will be the most difficult match of Pochettino’s nascent tenure. It will be the last time the United States plays a competitive match before the World Cup. It will also be Pochettino’s last chance to show that his team could be heading in the right direction.

Comparison of Pochettino with his predecessors

Since 2013, the USMNT has played 60 tournament matches in Concacaf, between the Nations League and the Gold Cup. This is not a perfect baseline, given the drastic difference in the quality of opponents in each match, but it’s a good way to present the average expectation for a Gold Cup or Nations League match. In these matches, according to Stats Perform data, the USMNT averages:

• 2.4 non-penalty goals scored
• 0.6 goals conceded
• 14.7 shots
• 9.6 shots conceded
• 61.6% possession in the final third
• 28.9 touches in the penalty area
• 14.6 touches allowed in the penalty area

That shouldn’t be surprising. The United States has doubled its opponent in most high-level offensive statistics: goals, possession in the final third, and touches in the penalty area. This is what’s expected of a country that has been one of the two dominant powers in the region for the last 30 years. Here, however, are the same numbers for the USMNT in Pochettino’s nine games in charge across both competitions:

• 2.0 non-penalty goals scored
• 0.9 goals conceded
• 12.6 shots
• 8.0 shots conceded
• 63.7% possession in the final third
• 24.7 touches in the penalty area
• 15.1 touches allowed in the penalty area

This, approximately, paints the tactical picture of the USMNT under Pochettino so far. The team is controlling more territory than the USMNT in the past, but that is not leading to better results or productions. The United States is generating fewer goals, shots, and touches in the penalty area since the increase in dominance in the final third, but is also allowing more touches in the penalty area and goals despite the dominance in the final third.

Of course, some of that could be random. Perhaps this new level of territorial control is creating a more solid process, but the bounces just aren’t going the USMNT’s way. That’s possible in a sample of nine games. But that hasn’t been the case.

In the same 60 matches, the USMNT has created 2.0 non-penalty expected goals per match and has allowed 0.7. Under Pochettino, the defense has been right at that 0.7 average, but the offensive production has fallen to 1.5 xG created per match. This happened in each of the USMNT’s last two matches. Against Costa Rica, the only opportunity the United States created with a value greater than 0.15 xG was the penalty missed by Malik Tillman. The totals below include penalties for each team, but even with a shot count skewed in favor of the USMNT, the overall quality of the opportunities was more or less even. This match went to a penalty shootout, and deservedly so. Then, after getting an early 2-0 lead in the semifinals, the United States held on. Giving up 20 shots to Argentina or Spain is one thing, but this was against Guatemala. Transfermarkt estimates that the transfer value of the Guatemala team for the Gold Cup is a fifth of what Bayer Leverkusen will pay to acquire Tillman. In other words, the average player in the USMNT squad this summer has an estimated transfer value of about 7 million euros. Added together, the entire Guatemala squad comes to 8.3 million euros.

The final against Mexico: Significance or insignificance?

I’m not sure you need advanced statistics to understand this. In two matches against Costa Rica and Guatemala, the USMNT scored four goals and conceded three. Costa Rica is ranked 46th in the world football Elo rankings, while Guatemala is ranked 75th. Even with a US B team, you would expect more comfortable results. Mexico, for its part, occupies the 22nd position. Therefore, Sunday’s match presents a first and last for Pochettino: the last chance to win something before the World Cup, but the first time he coaches the team in a match that is not expected to win. Due to the USMNT’s reduced squad and what is expected to be a pro-Mexican fanbase in Texas, El Tri is slightly favored. According to ESPN BET’s implied odds, Mexico has a 52% chance of lifting the trophy. Strangely, it seems that everything and nothing depends on Sunday’s match. Nothing matters because this is not the team that Pochettino will take to the World Cup. Furthermore, much can and will change between now and next summer, and most of it will have nothing to do with the decisions made by anyone wearing a US Soccer jersey. But there are so few matches in international football that we have no choice but to give each match an inordinate amount of weight. Each successive match is another piece of imperfect information about the quality of the team.

This is how a ranking system will also see it. According to Elo rankings, the USMNT had a rating of 1738 and a 37th position when Pochettino took over. Currently, it has a rating of 1727 and a 40th position. Teams gain and lose points every time they play a match, depending on the result, the quality of the opponent, and the level of the competition.

Therefore, if the USMNT wins on Sunday, it will progress under its new coach. If the team loses, it will take a step back. And if the match ends in a draw (and goes to penalties), the United States will stay where it is now: neither significantly better nor worse than where it was before.