Stars in Decline or Luxury Reinforcements? The Debate of European Figures in MLS
About three and a half years ago, MLS commissioner Don Garber made a statement that resonated in the soccer world. Before the start of the 2022 season, Garber stated: “We don’t need to bring in big-name players at the end of their careers because they decided to retire in MLS.” However, the reality of the market has shown a different trend.
This summer, we’ve seen the arrival of prominent figures who, while not at the peak of their careers, still have much to offer. Heung-Min, 33, joined LAFC from Tottenham. Rodrigo De Paul, 31, arrived at Inter Miami from Atlético de Madrid, and Thomas Müller, 35, signed for the Vancouver Whitecaps from Bayern Munich.
Lionel Messi, currently the best MLS player at 38 years old, leads Inter Miami. He is accompanied by figures like Luis Suárez (38 years old), Jordi Alba (36 years old), and Sergio Busquets (37 years old).
This signing trend raises a crucial question: are these signings a success or a mistake? We analyze the history of these veteran star incorporations to better understand their impact.
A Look Back: How Did European Stars Fare in MLS?
The arrival of David Beckham at LA Galaxy in 2008 marked a turning point. Although many saw it as a marketing strategy, his sporting impact was significant. Beckham, despite not playing 100% of the minutes, proved to be a valuable player for the Galaxy, winning two MLS Cup titles in his final seasons.
Beckham was the league’s first designated player, a designation that allowed teams to sign and pay players outside the salary cap, opening the door to the complex roster construction rules that govern the league today.Nicol: Son leaving is right for him and TottenhamStevie Nicol praises Son Heung-min’s decision to leave Tottenham as he believes it comes at the right time in his career.An analysis of the best designated players in MLS history reveals that most of the most successful are attackers. This could be due to the league’s rules, which favor attackers with higher salaries.
Considering this, we will focus on the offensive players who arrived in MLS at 30 years old or older and with a market value of €5 million or more, according to Transfermarkt. This gives us a total of 20 players:
Lionel Messi (36 years old, PSG to Inter Miami, €35 million)
Lorenzo Insigne (31 years old, Napoli to Toronto FC, €25M)
David Beckham (32 years old, Real Madrid to LA Galaxy, €19.8M)
Gonzalo Higuain (32 years old, Juventus to Inter Miami, €15M)
Thierry Henry (32 years old, Barcelona to NY Red Bulls, €12M)
Clint Dempsey (30 years old, Tottenham to Seattle Sounders, €10M)
Wayne Rooney (32 years old, Everton to DC United, €10M)
Chicharito (31 years old, Sevilla to LA Galaxy, €9M)
Xherdan Shaqiri (30 years old, Lyon to Chicago Fire, €8M)
Juan Pablo Angel (31 years old, Aston Villa to NY Red Bulls, €6.6M)
Jermain Defoe (31 years old, Tottenham to Toronto FC, €6M)
Emil Forsberg (32 years old, RB Leipzig to NY Red Bulls, €6M)
Christian Benteke (31 years old, Crystal Palace to DC United, €6M)
Robbie Keane (31 years old, Tottenham to LA Galaxy, €5.5M)
Zlatan Ibrahimovic (36 years old, Manchester United to LA Galaxy, €5M)
Marco Reus (35 years old, Borussia Dortmund to LA Galaxy, €5M)
Tim Cahill (32 years old, Everton to NY Red Bulls, €5M)
Olivier Giroud (37 years old, AC Milan to LAFC, €3M)
Gareth Bale (32 years old, Real Madrid to LAFC, €3M)
Luis Muriel (32 years old, Atalanta to Orlando City, €3.5M)
What Can We Learn from These Signings?
Analyzing these 20 cases, we find that:
Average age: 32.0 years old
Average market value: €10.3 million
Goals+assists (excluding penalties) per 90 minutes in the last season with the previous club: 0.51
Goals+assists (excluding penalties) per 90 minutes in his first MLS season: 0.66
Percentage of minutes played in the last season with the previous club: 42.8%
Percentage of minutes played in his first MLS season: 61.7%
These numbers suggest that the incorporations of veteran attackers are not as disastrous as one might think. An average of 0.66 goals+assists per 90 minutes in their first season in MLS, along with an average of 60% of minutes played, is a respectable performance.
To determine which signings were successful and which were not, the results of each player in MLS were evaluated. The successful ones include Messi, Beckham, Higuain, Henry, Dempsey, Rooney, Angel, Keane, Forsberg, Benteke, Ibrahimovic, and Reus. The unsuccessful ones were Insigne, Chicharito, Shaqiri, Cahill, Defoe, Giroud, Bale, and Muriel.
Successful transfers were for older players (32.4 years old) with a higher market value (€12.1 million) and better performance at their previous club (0.58 goals+assists per 90 minutes).
In short, the success of these incorporations seems to be related to the players’ ability to maintain a high level in Europe until their 30s. The most outstanding players, such as Zlatan or Messi, tend to be more successful in MLS.
Regarding this summer’s signings, Son Heung-min and Rodrigo De Paul arrived with a high market value and a good percentage of minutes played in their previous clubs. Thomas Müller, on the other hand, arrived with a lower market value and fewer minutes played at Bayern Munich. Time will tell how these players adapt to the MLS, but history suggests that the key to success lies in the quality and performance demonstrated in Europe.
