The NFL Season Begins: Keys and Expectations for the 2025 Training Camp
It is said that Christmas is in December and lasts 12 days. Nonsense! Christmas begins in July, lasts four weeks, and brings a gift almost every day: when your favorite backup receiver makes a difficult catch in double coverage; when the undrafted defensive lineman from a small, undersized school terrorizes the backup offensive line again; and when everyone, and I mean everyone, is in the best shape of their lives. It’s NFL training camp, folks! And it’s just around the corner, with veteran players from the Chargers and Lions reporting to camp later this week, before the Hall of Fame Game on July 31st.Few things do I look forward to more than the first video that arrives on my timeline of some star players running onto the practice field. Perhaps the only thing I appreciate more are the answers to the following questions, the winners of the following positional battles, the health of the following injuries, and the updates on the following rookies. Let’s go!
Key Questions in the Training Camp
What can we expect from Dan Campbell’s second stage? Campbell is one of the best coaches in the league. There is no doubt about it. Two of his best decisions with the Lions have been: hiring Aaron Glenn as defensive coordinator and promoting Ben Johnson to offensive coordinator after his first hire (Anthony Lynn) didn’t work out. Those are the only coordinator decisions Campbell has needed to make in his four years in Detroit, something uncommon for a team as successful as the Lions. After years of interest, both Glenn and Johnson have finally accepted head coaching jobs elsewhere, which raises some questions. The first: How good an eye does Campbell have for coaching talent? The new DC, Kelvin Sheppard, was promoted from the linebackers coach position, but Campbell worked with him for the first time in 2014-15, when Sheppard was still a Dolphins player. He’s been the defensive coordinator in waiting for a while. What does Campbell see in him? And will that vision come to fruition? On the offensive side of the ball, where there were many candidates for internal promotions (Hank Fraley, Tanner Engstrand, Antwan Randel El), Campbell opted to hire John Morton externally. There is some familiarity there, as Morton spent the 2022 season as the Lions’ senior offensive assistant. Does he have a particularly strong relationship with Jared Goff, who will need to take on a greater load now that Johnson is gone? Can Morton bring the same creativity, the same situational excellence that fueled the Lions’ fourth-down approach in past seasons? The Lions are going from a rebuilding team to a real force, and that means they must combat brain drain. This is Campbell’s first attempt to replace key personnel departures, and doing it right is critical to completing the team’s total transformation. What will Justin Fields do with this (last) opportunity? When Fields finally left Chicago last season, I was excited for him. Few franchises have been worse at developing quarterbacks in recent seasons than the Bears. The Steelers are another candidate, as they have struggled to modernize their offensive approach or flood their roster with receivers for a young quarterback. Of course, Fields joined Pittsburgh as a backup behind Russell Wilson, and he only started in six games while Wilson recovered from a calf injury. Surprisingly, the Jets gave him a starting contract and a clear path to the QB1 position. The Jets are another candidate for our “even worse than the Bears at quarterback development” list, but it’s a new staff in New York, namely head coach Aaron Glenn and offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand. Both came from Detroit, and Glenn in particular saw how Fields’ defenses were devastated by his legs twice a season. Fields’ last three games as a Bear against Glenn’s defense: 12 carries for 58 yards and a touchdown; 10 carries for 132 yards; 13 carries for 147 yards and two touchdowns. Now, the Jets have few receivers behind Garrett Wilson, but they have a pretty solid offensive line. I don’t think they’ll reveal their hand (and put Fields in danger) too much during training camp, but I’ll be watching the reports. And I won’t be surprised if we see a season like Fields’ 2022 season. Back then, he recorded 160 carries for 1,143 yards, the second-most all-time for a quarterback. If he can replicate that season with his legs, while receiving more help in the passing game from Engstrand and Wilson than he ever received in Chicago, there could be something there.What is J.J. McCarthy ready for?
There isn’t a question at training camp with a wider range of outcomes than the McCarthy question in Minnesota. I can draw two parallel universes for you. In the first, a year of rehabilitation gave McCarthy the opportunity to prepare mentally, and, consequently, he’s as sharp as a tack under center, with no rookie mistakes. Fully recovered physically, he offers more in the running game than Darnold, creating a new layer in the already dangerous Vikings offense. Minnesota starts off on the right foot.
In the other, Minnesota really starts off on the right foot because McCarthy isn’t ready. He’s not sure about his knee and is still adapting to the speed of the NFL, and it’s not like he was a passing expert in college either. The Vikings are heavily reliant on a revamped offensive line, as well as a running back committee with Jordan Mason joining Aaron Jones. They keep as much as possible off the shoulders of their young passer as he works to enter the NFL. These two worlds, and all the intermediate worlds, feel possible for the Vikings. We shouldn’t overreact to anything we get in training camp, especially the negative. The McCarthy we get in August won’t be the McCarthy we see in December, as a year of action in the NFL teaches some big lessons. But the Vikings are in a competitive division and harbor deep playoff aspirations. They only have so much room to give a rookie, especially when you consider how easy Kevin O’Connell has made veteran quarterbacks shine in this offense. McCarthy’s health and confidence are one of the most important stories of July in the NFL. What’s up with Trey Hendrickson and Shemar Stewart? I still believe the two most obvious things will happen in Cincinnati: the Bengals will reach an extension with Hendrickson that makes him a top-three highest-paid defensive player in football, and they will give Stewart the rookie contract language he seeks so he can start practicing.However, there is a considerable probability (excellent writing, I am a professional) that at least one of these will take a left turn. Hendrickson seems to have more internal support in the locker room for a prolonged retention than any other player I can remember. Everyone in a Bengals uniform knows that he has carried that defense for a long time, and in no season was that more obvious than last year. If Hendrickson flatly rejects every offer the Bengals make him and tries to revitalize the trade markets as other teams re-evaluate their rosters during training camp, I will be surprised. But I won’t be surprised.
Stewart’s situation feels tied to Hendrickson’s situation. If Hendrickson is holding out (or holding in, as that’s the method these days), then the Bengals will quickly revert the language of his rookie contract and have Stewart practice, they need him even more than they thought. But, what if Hendrickson’s deal gets done before camp? I can see the Bengals “losing” the Hendrickson negotiation (i.e., paying him a ton of dollars), and holding onto Stewart’s contract as a result. Once again: I still firmly believe that we are going to get the expected result in both agreements, but I’m not counting my chickens yet. Can Nick Caley make it work? And can Josh Grizzard keep it going? With each offseason, it seems that new offensive coordinators have an ever-increasing influence on a team’s surprising results. Compare the 2024 Eagles to the 2023 Eagles if you don’t believe me: a play-caller can sink a booming offense as easily as they can resurrect a falling one. In the final case this season, we have the new offensive coordinator of the Texans, Nick Caley, who inherits a Texans offense that did not meet high expectations in 2024. Houston’s focus on pass protection proved to be too rudimentary, and opposing defenses easily found pressure schematically. They also found it against personnel, so the Texans revamped their offensive line accordingly. It’s easy to find flaws in the 2025 Texans’ offensive personnel. Rookie receivers fill the depth chart behind Nico Collins. Christian Kirk returns from a collarbone injury; Tank Dell may not return this season. The offensive line is young and has been reorganized. But I remember how explosive this offense was in 2023 when the play calling was precise, and the core of that success (C.J. Stroud and Collins) remains. I am optimistic about an offensive rebound from the Texans, as long as Caley is as advertised.On the other hand, Josh Grizzard is not looking to recover, but to maintain. The new offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay, Grizzard, takes the place of Liam Coen as the play-caller for Baker Mayfield and a Bucs offense that returns every starter from last season (and adds Emeka Egbuka, a first-round receiver from Ohio State). But Grizzard has never called plays before, and it was a rapid rise through the Dolphins’ offensive ranks before his only season as the Buccaneers’ passing game coordinator last season. What is his DNA?
The Bucs were a rebound away from a wild-card win over the Commanders last season, and that was with an injury-riddled defense. If they’re healthier on that side of the ball, they look like a bona fide NFC contender… as long as you assume the offense doesn’t regress with Coen’s departure. A great responsibility falls on Grizzard’s shoulders.Battles at the Training Camp:
The competition for the Colts’ quarterback position. The key fulcrum of this battle may have been in a later section, as the fight between Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson for the starting quarterback position in Indianapolis is complicated by Richardson’s persistent shoulder injury. Richardson initially injured his throwing shoulder in 2023 on a run and aggravated that AC joint during practice in May. Coach Shane Steichen did not establish a timeline for the return, but reports indicate he will be ready for training camp.If Richardson can throw without impediments during training camp, we will have a real battle. Jones, who signed a one-year contract in March, is a known product: a low-end starting quarterback with some running ability, but little arm talent to elevate the passing game. Richardson, who has missed 17 games due to injuries in his first two seasons, still has the physical talent needed not only to win the starting position, but also to become a very dangerous NFL QB. Given that he is younger (23) and much more skilled by nature, the Colts want him to win the position.
But the Colts’ commitment to Richardson is clearly lacking, especially after last season’s peculiar touch/bench fiasco. And if the often-injured passer misses time in August, Steichen and general manager Chris Ballard can easily hand the starting job to Jones in an argument for continuity and stability. Jones played under a strong offensive mind in Brian Daboll while starting in New York, but never enjoyed a receiving group as talented as the one he has now: Josh Downs, Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, Adonai Mitchell and rookie tight end Tyler Warren. While Jones is unlikely to suddenly become a top-tier quarterback, he can be a capable facilitator for such a dangerous group. Chiefs’ left tackle. The left tackle’s poor play seemed poised to sink the Chiefs’ offensive ship for months of the 2024 season, but, nevertheless, that stubborn, incremental offense made it all the way to Super Bowl LIX before the bill finally came due. With the 2024 second-round pick Kingsley Suamataia at the left guard position vacated by Joe Thuney, the Chiefs doubled down on their investment in the key position. They signed Jaylon Moore in free agency and Josh Simmons from Ohio State in the April draft. Both options carry risks: Moore only started in a few games with the 49ers, and Simmons is recovering from a patellar injury and is still recovering from surgery. Simmons is expected to be fully ready for training camp, which opens the job to a real battle. Chiefs fans will be familiar with the uncertainty, as the left tackle position was also up for grabs last season. The hope is that Simmons proves to be healthy and capable, so that Moore can serve as a versatile tackle. I imagine Simmons will take the first snaps at left tackle as a result, but he needs to be (and remain) healthy to win that job. Cowboys’ running back.What exactly are the Cowboys doing at the running back position? It’s not clear. After producing a 1,000-yard season, Rico Dowdle left in free agency for a mere one-year, $2.75 million deal with the Panthers. Dallas gave more to former Bronco Javonte Williams, who hasn’t looked explosive since a major knee injury in 2022. The team also signed Miles Sanders to a one-year deal and selected Jaydon Blue from Texas in the fifth round.
This is a worryingly weak room. The ideal outcome is for Williams to suddenly return to his pre-injury form, although it’s worth noting that even his best career season (2021, rookie year) was only 4.4 yards per attempt and a 46.3% success rate. But Blue is a quick change-of-pace back, so Williams’ consistent production, an excellent pass catcher, could be complemented by some big plays from Blue. There are still two big “ifs” just to get to a functional committee. A lot of pressure to not get much juice.This training camp battle is one to watch less for the distribution of touches (the three running backs will inevitably get use this season) and more for the overall quality. The Cowboys feel like a prime candidate for a running back trade acquisition, especially if their running game falls behind an improved passing game with George Pickens as a receiver. Which leads us to our other backfield to watch.
Jaguars’ running backs. A three-way battle is underway in Jacksonville. The presumed starter is Travis Etienne Jr., a 2021 first-round pick who has started in 46 of 53 possible games since entering the league. But last season, he lost touches to Tank Bigsby, a 2023 second-round pick who shined when Etienne missed time with a shoulder injury. Starting in Week 5 in 2024, Bigsby out-touched Etienne 147 to 103 and was statistically superior in almost every measure: 0.01 EPA per run versus Etienne’s minus 0.13, 38.8% success rate versus Etienne’s 35.9%, and 2.33 yards after contact per run versus Etienne’s 1.36. Now, Jacksonville’s offensive personnel has been revamped, and new coach Liam Coen made good use of a two-headed backfield when he was coordinating the Buccaneers’ offense last season. So, why not just play Etienne and Bigsby in a committee? Because a third running back has entered the fray in fourth-round pick Bhayshul Tuten, whom the Jaguars selected in April. I am pretty sure Tuten will play a solid role in the backfield, as he is the recent acquisition in relation to the two veterans that this new staff is inheriting. But there are not enough touches to feed three running backs, which means Etienne and Bigsby will compete for the 1A role. Given what we saw last season, I think Bigsby will win that battle in a fair fight: the decision could depend on which running back returns more capital in a trade. Patriots’ Receivers. In this pass-loving NFL era, it’s quite rare to find a team with a receiving room where every role, from X to Z to the slot, is up for grabs. But that’s the case in New England, where new coach Mike Vrabel must line up a functional group of receivers around second-year quarterback Drake Maye. The leading candidate for a WR1 position is Stefon Diggs, who signed a three-year, $69 million contract this spring. On paper, he is New England’s most talented receiver. But he is 31 years old, recovering from a torn ACL, and has already enjoyed some off-field antics this offseason. Last year’s leading receiver was DeMario Douglas, who amassed 621 yards on 66 receptions as the primary slot receiver. (Technically, tight end Hunter Henry led the Patriots with 674 yards, but that’s pretty depressing, and we’re only talking about the receiving room right now). Douglas is only acceptable in the slot receiver. Among the 27 players who ran at least 60% of their routes from the slot last season, he ranked 17th in yards per route run and 19th in first downs per target. That’s not prolific enough to have a complete lock on that role, and any smart use of Diggs includes a decent diet of slot routes. There’s also the wrinkle of rookie third-round pick Kyle Williams, a 5-foot-11, 190-pound speedster who, you guessed it, deserves some snaps in the slot. Diggs and Williams can play on the outside, and probably should to some extent. How much will be decided by Kayshon Boutte, who got the most snaps at the X receiver last season but failed to impress (he’ll get another chance with a new coaching staff), and second-year player Ja’Lynn Polk, who fell out of favor with last year’s offense but was a top-40 pick in 2024. There are hundreds of objectives at stake in the Patriots’ offense, without exaggeration. Someone needs to emerge in August if this offense is going to take a step in the right direction.
