NHL: Who’s in the Playoffs? Analysis and projections at the quarter-season mark.

NHL Playoff Bubble Analysis: Who Are the Favorites?

The NHL season is in full swing, and the fight for the playoffs is intensifying. Parity in the league has created fierce competition, with teams separated by just a few points. This month, we analyze the playoff odds and Stathletes’ point projections for all 32 teams. We also highlight the teams that could be in trouble and those that are already thinking about the lottery draft.

This is how the current pairings look

M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Atlantic Division

Insurance

Tampa Bay LightningRecord: 10-7-2, 22 pointsPlayoff chances: 95.1% Despite a rocky start, Stathletes’ model still trusts the Lightning. Injuries to key players like Anthony Cirelli, Nick Paul, Victor Hedman, and Ryan McDonagh have played a role. Brayden Point’s lack of consistency has also taken its toll. These factors have contributed to the Lightning’s power play being 29th in the NHL. However, the team has the potential to be elite when healthy and performing at its peak.

Coach Jon Cooper lamented that his team became overconfident with their initial lead, comparing the matchup to “the tortoise and the hare”.

Jon Cooper

The team needs to maintain intensity and demonstrate the killer instinct that characterizes teams like Colorado.

To-Do

Ottawa Senators

Record: 9-6-4, 22 pointsPlayoff chances: 60.4% The Senators have managed to stay competitive despite the absence of their captain, Brady Tkachuk, due to an injury. The team has found a balance, with Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson, and Shane Pinto standing out on offense. However, their goaltending has been a weak point, with Linus Ullmark and Leevi Merilainen struggling to maintain good performance.

Florida Panthers

Record: 10-8-1, 21 pointsPlayoff chances: 47.7% The Panthers have focused on staying afloat until the return of key players like Matthew Tkachuk. Brad Marchand has been the team’s most valuable player. However, the team faces the challenge of keeping up the pace in a demanding season, especially considering injuries and physical wear and tear.Montreal CanadiensRecord: 10-6-3, 23 points

Playoff chances: 47.3%

The Canadiens have continued their good offensive performance, led by their top line, and have received a boost from young players. However, injuries to key players like Kirby Dach, Kaiden Guhle, and Alex Newhook represent a significant challenge.Detroit Red WingsRecord: 12-7-1, 25 pointsPlayoff chances: 34.9% Dylan Larkin has been the Red Wings’ most valuable player at the start of the season. The team needs to improve its offensive production and find more support for its key players.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Record: 9-9-2, 20 points

Playoff chances: 24.9%

The absence of Mitch Marner has affected the team. Although they can still score, their defense has been a problem. Auston Matthews’ injury is a concern, and the team needs their star to regain his best form.Buffalo SabresRecord: 7-8-4, 18 pointsPlayoff chances: 11.2% The Sabres are looking for their first playoff berth since 2011. Tage Thompson has had a good offensive performance, but their goaltending and defense need to improve.Boston BruinsRecord: 12-9-0, 24 pointsPlayoff chances: 3.2% The new coach Marco Sturm is implementing a defensive system that is still in development. The offense has been a surprise, but the team relies heavily on two key players. The team needs to improve its defense.

Metropolitan Division

Insurance

Carolina HurricanesRecord: 13-5-1, 27 pointsPlayoff chances: 99.6% The Hurricanes have great offensive depth and good defensive performance. The question is whether this offensive depth will be enough to reach the Stanley Cup final.

Washington Capitals

Record: 9-8-2, 20 pointsPlayoff chances: 90.4% The Capitals, led by Alex Ovechkin, are looking to secure another playoff season. The team relies on its veterans, promising youngsters, and a solid defense. However, the power play has been a problem.

To-Do

New York RangersRecord: 10-9-2, 22 pointsPlayoff chances: 87.8% The Rangers have good playoff chances despite an unbalanced start to the season. Home consistency has been an issue. The team’s depth is a concern, especially when key players are not at their best.New York IslandersRecord: 11-7-2, 24 pointsPlayoff chances: 56.6% Matthew Schaefer has had a big impact, but the team’s defense needs to improve to compete in the East.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Record: 10-8-2, 22 pointsPlayoff chances: 50.1% The Blue Jackets have several promising young players, but their defense and special teams need to improve.