NHL: The Thanksgiving Panic Index: Who Suffers the Most?

The NHL Thanksgiving Panic Index: Who’s Feeling the Pressure?

The tradition of Thanksgiving in the United States comes with turkey, pumpkin pie, parades with giant balloons and, for NHL teams, the hope of a successful season. Since the league adopted the wild card format in the 2013-14 season, an impressive 77% of the teams that held playoff positions on Thanksgiving managed to advance to the postseason (excluding the two seasons affected by COVID-19), according to data from Alofoke Deportes. In half of those ten seasons, 13 of the 16 teams maintained their playoff positions at the end of the season.

In other words, there are always teams that manage to get in despite not being in playoff positions on Thanksgiving. Last season, the Montreal Canadiens, the Ottawa Senators, the St. Louis Blues, and the Edmonton Oilers, who were not in playoff positions on Thanksgiving, managed to qualify for the postseason. In the last ten seasons (not counting those affected by COVID-19), the teams that were outside of playoff positions on Thanksgiving and managed to qualify, were on average 2.8 points away from a playoff spot.

For some teams, it’s time to worry. But the panic is not uniform. Here is the NHL Thanksgiving Panic Index, starting with the teams that feel the least pressure.

Complete Nirvana

Colorado Avalanche

They have reached a state of spiritual enlightenment. With an average of 4.00 goals per game (best in the NHL) and allowing the fewest goals (2.18 per game, also best in the NHL), the path to victory seems clear. With a points percentage of .841 and only one regulation loss as of November 24, suffering seems extinguished. Stathletes estimates that the Avalanche have the highest probability of making the playoffs, winning their conference, and ultimately, the Stanley Cup.

Zero Panic

Carolina Hurricanes
Dallas Stars
Tampa Bay Lightning

These three teams are where many expected them to be. The Lightning lead the Atlantic Division, despite concerns about injuries and the production of some key players. The Hurricanes have a positive goal differential, with their offense outperforming their defense, which has missed Jaccob Slavin in several games. The Stars have withstood injuries to important players, thanks in large part to the offense of Jason Robertson, Mikko Rantanen, and Wyatt Johnston.

Worried, but Relatively Satisfied

Minnesota Wild
New York Islanders
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
Utah Mammoth
Washington CapitalsThe key is “relatively”. Every team has reasons for hope. The Flyers have a competent goalie. The Islanders combine the adrenaline of a young defenseman with the outstanding goaltending of Ilya Sorokin. The Capitals are in the fight thanks to their goalie Logan Thompson and the good offensive start of Tom Wilson. The Mammoth are in a playoff position with young rising stars. The Penguins are exceeding expectations thanks to the performances of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, as well as surprisingly solid goaltending. The Wild are on a roll, with a healthy Kirill Kaprizov and the arrival of Jesper Wallstedt, who had an immediate impact.

Worried Until They Recover

Boston Bruins
Florida Panthers
Los Angeles Kings
New Jersey Devils
Ottawa Senators
Vegas Golden Knights
Winnipeg JetsAll these teams have dealt with significant injuries to key players. The Stanley Cup champion Panthers have had to face the absence of Matthew Tkachuk and the injury of Aleksander Barkov. The Devils are playing without Jack Hughes, who underwent surgery. The Jets are without Connor Hellebuyck, who is out with an injury. The Bruins and Kings are without important defensemen. The Senators are awaiting the return of Brady Tkachuk, who could bolster the team.

The Tkachuk brothers announce a new podcast.

Worried about the Goal

Columbus Blue Jackets
Detroit Red Wings
Edmonton Oilers
Montreal Canadiens
St. Louis BluesIt’s no surprise that the Oilers’ goaltending is in trouble. Edmonton has the second-worst save percentage and is among the worst in goals saved above expected. The Blues are also having problems in goal. The problem for the Blue Jackets and Red Wings is imbalance. For the Canadiens, the early-season bubbles are bursting.

Worrying Regression

Anaheim Ducks
Chicago Blackhawks
San Jose Sharks
Seattle KrakenThe PDO is a metric that combines shooting percentage and save percentage. The Blackhawks have a high PDO thanks to their goalie’s performance. The Kraken have a high PDO thanks to their goaltending. The Sharks also have a high PDO. The Ducks have a high PDO thanks to their offense.

Existential Anguish

Buffalo Sabres

When things go wrong for the Sabres, the reaction is “here we go again.” When things go well, the reaction is cautious optimism with an impending sense of pessimism. If Tage Thompson continues to dominate, if Mattias Samuelsson and Rasmus Dahlin continue to be a solid pair, if they achieve acceptable goaltending… could the drought end? Or will it be the fifteenth “wait until next year”?

Extremely Concerned

Calgary Flames
New York Rangers
Toronto Maple Leafs

The Maple Leafs are struggling in several aspects. Calgary has dug a considerable hole. The Rangers have a good chance of making the postseason, but their lack of offense has them nervous.

Beyond Worry

Nashville Predators
Vancouver CanucksThe Canucks are considering trades. The Predators could be next. General Manager Barry Trotz said the next seven games will determine their approach for the rest of the season.