NHL: Teams Strengthening and Weakening in Free Agency

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In the NHL, although teams change, some things remain the same. The Florida Panthers defeated the Edmonton Oilers in the Stanley Cup final, repeating the result of the previous year. However, the league is constantly evolving. Player movements, including transfers and free agent signings, have transformed the rosters. The Vegas Golden Knights made the most notable addition of the offseason, while the San Jose Sharks and the Anaheim Ducks continue their rebuilding process. The Dallas Stars, Edmonton Oilers, and Toronto Maple Leafs face restructuring tasks. The Detroit Red Wings and Montreal Canadiens have become more interesting. Even the champion Panthers have had to make adjustments. To evaluate these changes, a methodology has been used that calculates the net impact of each team based on the “established performance level” of each player, using a weighted average of three years of their Goals Above Replacement (GAR). This approach smooths out performance fluctuations and offers a better forecast of future impact. Although there were fewer high-impact moves this summer, we will analyze which teams strengthened and which ones might regret their decisions. Below are the teams that added and lost the most value.

Teams that added value

  • San Jose Sharks: With a 22.0 increase in weighted GAR over three years, the Sharks are looking to improve after a difficult season. Key additions include Dmitry Orlov and Adam Gaudette.
  • Anaheim Ducks: With a 17.7 increase in GAR, the Ducks have added Chris Kreider and Mikael Granlund. The loss of John Gibson in goal is offset by the projection of Lukáš Dostál.
  • Seattle Kraken: With a 13.1 increase in GAR, the Kraken are reinforced with Mason Marchment and Ryan Lindgren.
  • Montreal Canadiens: With an 11.1 increase in GAR, the Canadiens add Noah Dobson and Zack Bolduc.
  • Vegas Golden Knights: With an 8.7 increase in GAR, the Knights acquired Mitch Marner.
  • Nashville Predators: With an 8.7 increase in GAR, the Predators incorporate Nick Perbix and Nicolas Hague.

Teams That Lost Value

  • Dallas Stars: With a decrease of 25.3 in GAR, the Stars suffered significant losses.
  • Edmonton Oilers: With a decrease of 13.1 in GAR, the Oilers lost key players.
  • Toronto Maple Leafs: With a decrease of 12.3 in GAR, the Maple Leafs lost Mitch Marner.
  • New York Rangers: With a decrease of 9.3 in GAR, the Rangers lost Chris Kreider and K’Andre Miller.
  • Winnipeg Jets: With a decrease of 7.4 in GAR, the Jets lost value.
The NHL’s offseason has been a period of significant changes, with teams reconfiguring their rosters to seek success in the upcoming season. Each team’s strategy, from rebuilding to seeking immediate victory, will define the league’s landscape.
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