The NHL paused its season on February 6 to allow its players to compete in the 2026 Winter Olympics in Italy. Some return as newly crowned gold medalists, others as bitter runners-up. Many will return worn out from an epic tournament and some will return injured during those intense matches.Around 143 players participated in the Olympic men’s hockey tournament. That means that most NHL players did not participate, getting a break of several weeks before the games resumed on Wednesday.
This includes all the stars born in Russia who would have played in the Olympics if it weren’t for the ban on their country competing by the IOC and the IIHF. Players like Nikita Kucherov of the Tampa Bay Lightning (third in scoring), Kirill Kaprizov of the Minnesota Wild (seventh) and Artemi Panarin, who was traded to the Los Angeles Kings before the break, had the opportunity to rest while their teammates fought for gold.
How are the NHL playoff races going as the season restarts?
The “NHL Bubble Watch” is our monthly review of the Stanley Cup playoff races using playoff probabilities from Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic, Stathletes, and Money Puck for all 32 teams. We use NHL stats, Natural Stat Trick, and Evolving Hockey.But first, a look at the playoff picture as the NHL regular season resumes:Current Playoff Bracket
- A1 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. WC2 Boston Bruins
- A2 Montreal Canadiens vs. A3 Detroit Red Wings
- M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC1 Buffalo Sabres
- M2 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. M3 New York Islanders
- C1 Colorado Avalanche vs. WC2 Anaheim Ducks
- C2 Minnesota Wild vs. C3 Dallas Stars
- P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Utah Mammoth
- P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Seattle Kraken
Atlantic Division
The Lock
Tampa Bay LightningRecord: 37-14-4, 78 pointsPlayoff chances: 99%The Lightning entered the Olympic break on a five-game winning streak and some decent separation in the division. Overall, they are 14-1-1 in their last 16 games. The Russians were unable to participate in the Olympic tournament, which means the two main reasons for the Lightning’s rise to the top of the standings took a breather: Nikita Kucherov, whose 91 points in 51 games are 31 points better than those of the second-highest scorer, Jake Guentzel; and goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has 27 wins in 37 games with a .920 save percentage.Olympic impact: Health is the main concern. Forwards Brayden Point and Anthony Cirelli were too injured to compete in Italy after being named to Team Canada. Defenseman Victor Hedman dressed for Sweden’s quarterfinal loss to Team USA but did not play after suffering an injury in warmups. Meanwhile, coach Jon Cooper and winger Brandon Hagel have to deal with the emotional cost of a loss in the Olympic final. Note to Jake Guentzel: Maybe leave the gold medal at home.To-Do Work
Montreal CanadiensRecord: 32-17-8, 72 pointsPlayoff chances: 86.5%The Habs have had the eighth-best points percentage in the NHL since the start of 2026 (.667), fueled by the sixth-best offense in that span (3.83 goals per game). If they keep getting goaltending, Montreal is poised to make the postseason. Since January 1st, they are eighth in the NHL in 5-on-5 save percentage. Jakub Dobes has won six of his last seven starts, but with a save percentage of .886.Olympic impact: Juraj Slafkovsky once again became an absolute star for Slovakia and has scored 11 goals in 13 Olympic games. But here’s the thing: He has been playing at an Olympic level for the last 33 games with the Canadiens, scoring 14 goals and adding 32 points. If they are going to make the cut, they need that level of dominance from the rising star.Detroit Red WingsRecord: 33-19-6, 72 pointsPlayoff chances: 72.7%The Red Wings have begun to overcome some of the secondary scoring challenges that plagued them earlier this season. Since January 1st, there have been 13 players who have recorded at least one goal for Detroit, including 14 points in 17 games from veteran James van Riemsdyk. Detroit has a points percentage of .618 in that span, just outside the top 10 in the NHL.Olympic impact: Dylan Larkin returns triumphantly, after having played a key role in the United States’ Olympic gold victory. Lucas Raymond returns, having been one of Sweden’s offensive leaders, with nine points in five games, including eight assists. Moritz Seider returns… well, one imagines quite tired, as he averaged 26:16 of ice time during Germany’s five Olympic games, a bit higher than his NHL average this season (25:40).Buffalo SabresRecord: 32-19-6, 70 pointsPlayoff chances: 70.1%There may not be an NHL team that has disliked the Olympic break more than the Sabres, and not just because of the wear and tear on some of their players.(They probably exhaled after Tage Thompson left that semi-final game for Team USA, but he played in the gold medal game).Buffalo had won 21 of 28 games since December 9 to catapult themselves into the playoff race. They were the third-best team offensively in that span (3.79 goals per game) and, thanks to exceptional goaltending, the fourth-best defensive team (2.61 goals against per game). We’ve seen Buffalo teams with hot streaks fall short in the playoffs before, and there are some underlying numbers that cause concern. But this one feels different.Olympic impact: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen went 7-2-1 in 11 games during that aforementioned successful stretch. He missed the Olympics for Finland due to a lower-body injury, but is expected to return for Buffalo this week. The health of Luukkonen and Alex Lyon is paramount for the Sabres in their playoff push.Boston Bruins
Record: 32-20-5, 69 pointsPlayoff chances: 52.9%The Bruins continue to be one of the surprises of the division, a team led by two offensive players, a defenseman who does it all, and one of the best goalies in the NHL. David Pastrnak (71 points in 52 games) and Morgan Geekie (32 goals in 56 games) have been the team’s top scorers, with Pavel Zacha (37 points in 54 games) and Elias Lindholm (37 in 44 games) offering support. Charlie McAvoy is their third-highest scorer (39 points) and skates 24:10 per game, the highest on the team.Olympic impact: Is Jeremy Swayman okay? He’s been great this season with a .903 save percentage and a 22-12-3 record, while he’s fourth in goals saved above expected (16.2). But he didn’t have the best Olympics, and he’s famous for conceding a goal from center ice in his only start of the tournament, against Denmark. But hey, he has a gold medal now. That’s a good way to overcome such dislikes.Ottawa SenatorsRecord: 28-22-7, 63 pointsPlayoff chances: 49.9%The Senators’ average is a bit skewed here because Stathletes has them at 63.7% to make the playoffs, while the other two sources have them below 45%. Ottawa is 10-7-2 since January 1st with a plus-6 goal differential. The Senators are expected to be buyers at the trade deadline to reinforce this group, but in reality, the whole game is their goaltending.The return of Linus Ullmark should be a stabilizing force for a group that has been one of the most mediocre collectives in the NHL this season. If that happens, the Sens could compete.Olympic impact: Brady Tkachuk returns in a rather awkward way. The Senators captain won the Olympic gold medal with the United States and spoke about the “hate” that exists between hockey nations. Ottawa, of course, is the capital of one of those hockey nations…
