The second round of the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs has passed its midpoint, with almost all series having played four games.
Midway Analysis
What have been the most important lessons learned in the first part of the second round? Which teams and players have surprised, for better or for worse? How will all this influence the rest of the postseason?
We analyze the key points:
A Favorable Trend for the Stars?
The series between the Winnipeg Jets and the Dallas Stars can still change, but if the Stars manage to win and advance to the Western Conference Finals, it would be their third consecutive appearance at this stage and the fourth since 2020. Although they haven’t won the Stanley Cup in that period, does this consistency make them the most outstanding team in the West?
The Vegas Golden Knights, champions in 2023, and the Edmonton Oilers, who were close last season, are strong contenders. If Dallas reaches the next round, they will face one of these two teams.
The Stars’ situation is notable when compared to other teams since the NHL adopted the East/West format in 1994. If they defeat the Jets and reach their third consecutive conference final, they would be only the fourth team to achieve this under this format. The Detroit Red Wings did it first (from 1995 to 1998), winning two Stanley Cups, and then again (from 2007 to 2009), with another title in 2008. The Chicago Blackhawks were the most recent team to achieve it (from 2013 to 2015), winning two Cups.
Toronto needs a change of strategy
The Maple Leafs suffered a resounding 2-0 defeat against the Florida Panthers in Game 4, where the defending champion showed their best form. Florida dominated Toronto with strong pressure in the offensive zone, leading the Leafs to commit several penalties and lose momentum.
Despite the outstanding performance of goaltender Joseph Woll, the score could have been worse for Toronto, who found no answers to Florida’s offense.
Unlike the first games of the series, where the Leafs capitalized on counterattack opportunities, the Panthers closed their defenses and kept Toronto at bay, outplaying them in the zone in front of Bobrovsky. If they manage to maintain this strategy and the Leafs don’t adapt, the Panthers could reach their third consecutive Eastern Conference final.
If Toronto wants to advance, it’s time to make changes and for its best players to raise their performance. Mitch Marner hasn’t registered a shot on goal since scoring the winning goal in Game 2, and Auston Matthews has yet to score in the second round or score against Florida in nine playoff games.
Toronto coach Craig Berube noted that he expects more from certain players. Both teams have dominated at home so far, and Toronto still has that edge in a series that will be decided in a best-of-three. The question is what counterattack the Leafs will launch now that Florida has shown its claws.
Can Hellebuyck be trusted for the Olympics?
The first question the United States team will have to answer before the men’s ice hockey tournament at the 2026 Winter Olympics is whether the games in Milan will be considered home or away. The answer could determine who will be the starting goaltender.
The struggles of Connor Hellebuyck, goaltender for the Winnipeg Jets, in the Stanley Cup playoffs have reached an absurd point. He has won the Vezina Trophy twice in his career and will win it again this season. He is a Hart (MVP) finalist. Statistically and anecdotally, he is the best goaltender in the world… in the regular season.
In his last 20 playoff games, Hellebuyck has a 7-13 record with a .866 save percentage and a 3.90 goals-against average. Most of these unfavorable numbers have been on the road, where Hellebuyck has lost eight of his last nine starts, with a .835 save percentage and a 5.20 goals-against average.
After the first round of playoffs against the St. Louis Blues, the standard for Hellebuyck was “can survive a road game without being replaced.” The good news is that in Game 3 against Dallas, he passed that test. The bad news is that he lost again and didn’t perform well, allowing a shot by Roope Hintz for Dallas’s first goal, and then what the NHL ruled as an own goal in the third period.
The contrast is Jake Oettinger, who has a 12-11 record with a .909 save percentage and a 2.63 goals-against average in his last 23 road playoff games. It’s not an excellent performance, but it certainly doesn’t imply being replaced three times in the first round.
The United States has a plethora of good goalies, but Oettinger seems to be next in line, having been Hellebuyck’s backup at the 4 Nations Face-Off in February. His performance in this series and in other big moments, such as the Stars’ Game 7 win against Colorado in Round 1, should start a conversation about the U.S. Olympic goalie, given Hellebuyck’s struggles when games matter most.
However, Hellebuyck performed outstandingly in the 4 Nations, with a goals-against average of 1.59 and a save percentage of .932 in three games. Which raises the question: Perhaps he can be trusted more playing behind an All-Star team than with the Winnipeg Jets, regardless of where the games are played?
Connor Hellebuyck has struggled as a visitor in the playoffs, despite an impressive career.
The Oilers’ depth could be the Golden Knights’ undoing
Seeing Adam Henrique score the first two goals in Game 4, before Evander Kane scored another, not only gave the Oilers a 3-0 victory that puts them one win away from their second consecutive Western Conference Finals appearance, but also reinforced how the Oilers can rely on a level of depth that, by comparison, the Golden Knights lack.
The statistic that has made it clearest is that the generational duo of the Oilers, Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, have combined to score only three of their team’s 15 goals. Draisaitl scored in Game 1, but the rest of those contributions, including the winning goal, came from other places in the lineup. Draisaitl scored the winning goal in Game 2, but the previous four goals were scored by his teammates. In Game 3, Corey Perry scored the first two goals.
Now, compare that to the Golden Knights. The trio of Ivan Barbashev, Tomas Hertl, and Brett Howden combined to score 78 goals in the regular season. They haven’t scored in the first four games of their series against the Oilers. Vegas’s top six defensemen combined to score 35 goals in the regular season, 17 of them belonging to Noah Hanifin and Shea Theodore. The group has only one goal in the series.
It’s a lack of depth in scoring that has been compounded by the fact that Jack Eichel, who led the Golden Knights with 94 points in the regular season, hasn’t scored in the series. Meanwhile, top scorer Pavel Dorofeyev, who missed the first two games with an injury, also hasn’t scored since his return.
Own goals for everyone?
Fans love to see goals, as much as players like to score them, except when it’s in their own net. And we’ve seen some notable examples in this round.
In Game 3 between Dallas and Winnipeg on Sunday, an own goal, after a long official review, was determined to have been scored by Hellebuyck. The night before, it was Draisaitl’s stick that deflected the puck against Stuart Skinner, giving Vegas a last-second goal (with 0.4 seconds remaining on the clock) and their first win of the series.
Morgan Rielly’s stick deflected the puck against Woll in Game 3 of the Toronto-Florida series, reducing the Leafs’ lead to 2-1, although Toronto ultimately lost 5-4 in overtime.
There’s no good time to score an own goal, but could the timing of some of them have been worse? If you’ve ever wondered why “just throw the puck at the net” is a hockey cliché, here’s your answer: because anything can happen.
Mikko Rantanen, MVP Candidate
Dallas Stars coach Pete DeBoer, in his tenth postseason, has witnessed some surprising individual performances from his players. Like Ilya Kovalchuk’s 19 points in 23 games for the Devils in 2012, or Joe Pavelski’s 14 goals in 24 games for the Sharks in 2016.
But nothing like the postseason that Rantanen is having for the Stars.
It’s the best performance I’ve witnessed, being where I am. But for me, it’s just beginning. He’s just warming up here. I think he’s on a mission.
Pete DeBoer
In 10 games, Rantanen leads the playoffs in goals (nine) and points (18). At one point, he had scored or assisted on 15 of the Stars’ 16 goals, dating back to the first round. He is the first player in Stanley Cup playoff history with five three-point games in a team’s first 10 playoff games.
He has accomplished all of this after a turbulent season in which he was traded twice, from Colorado to Carolina and then to Dallas, before signing a large extension with the Stars. He has answered questions about his offensive prowess without having Nathan MacKinnon on his team. He entered the playoffs as one of the best postseason scorers in the NHL of recent seasons. He has exceeded those expectations and is the current leader for the Conn Smythe Trophy (postseason MVP).
However, despite all this tremendous recent scoring, the Jets were shut out in their Game 2 victory in Winnipeg.
But The Moose returned in the Stars’ Game 3 victory, with a goal and two assists.
It’s undoubtedly Mikko Rantanen’s time.
Ovechkin and Perry defy time
Corey Perry will turn 40 on Friday, while Alex Ovechkin will reach that milestone in September. Perry and Ovechkin are part of a group of five players aged 39 or older who have played more than one game this postseason. But to suggest that Ovechkin and Perry are having strong postseason campaigns for players of their age only partially explains what they have done so far.
In fact, they are having two of the best postseason campaigns for two players in their 39-year-old season in NHL history.
Perry, a Stanley Cup winner and No. 38 in career playoff goals, has scored five times this postseason. Ovechkin, also a Stanley Cup winner and tied with Mario Lemieux for 12th in playoff goals, has four. Both are within striking distance of the most playoff goals in a 39-year season, according to Quant Hockey. That mark is currently held by Jean Béliveau, with six goals in 1971.
Have the Hurricanes figured out Ovi?
Some might accuse Ovechkin’s game of being increasingly “one-note.” But when played well, it’s a good note. And right now, the Washington Capitals are desperate for more of his contributions to their orchestra, at least at even strength.
Ovechkin’s line has been stifled by Carolina’s defense, namely Jaccob Slavin and Brent Burns, so far in the series, and they’ve had far fewer shot attempts and opportunities than the opposition at 5-on-5. Ovechkin and linemate Dylan Strome especially thrive on creating opportunities off zone entries, and the Hurricanes aren’t giving them much in that regard.
Ovechkin continues to fight for open ice and leads the Capitals in shots at even strength, but that hasn’t materialized into anything on the scoresheet; Ovechkin’s only goal in the series has been on the power play in Game 4.
Considering the Caps were defeated 4-0 in Game 3 and 5-2 in Game 4, they are looking for consistent offensive contributions to overcome the situation. It is then that Ovechkin has to start turning his proverbial straw into gold at full power again.
Washington got lucky in Game 2 after being outshot 33-14 by the Hurricanes, but still managed a 3-1 victory. If Carolina is finding its offensive rhythm now and starting to figure out Logan Thompson, then Washington must find ways to generate more offensive opportunities. That’s easier said than done against the Hurricanes’ suffocating collective defensive play.
Carolina is no joke
If you’ve followed the second round, you’ve undoubtedly encountered a joke or two (or 10) about the relative quality of the Carolina Hurricanes vs. Washington Capitals series compared to the other three playoff series. Perhaps you’ve made a few yourself.
Monday night’s Game 4 was the outlier in what has otherwise been a hard-fought, tightly-contested series that saw four or fewer total goals scored in each of the first three games, including a 4-0 shutout by goaltender Frederik Andersen in Game 3.
The Hurricanes are the Hurricanes. Coach Rod Brind’Amour doesn’t care about the entertainment value of this series or any other series. His team’s mission is to vampirically suck the life out of their opponents with a combination of puck possession, defensive zone coverage, reliable goaltending, and elite penalty killing. After four games, the mission has been accomplished.
Brind’Amour was asked about fans and media in other markets reducing the Hurricanes’ virtues to simply a monotonous “shot volume” team.
He’s lazy. He’s lazy. Because then you’re not really watching the game. You’re picking a part of it. But there’s a method to all this. It doesn’t bother me.
Rod Brind’Amour
When the Hurricanes don’t have the puck, they’re avoiding shots: Carolina is allowing an average of 24.6 shots per game this postseason, the third-best among active teams.
Again, this is what the Hurricanes do. This is what the Hurricanes have done. And this is what they will continue to do in the Eastern Conference Finals unless the Capitals have a surge in them. Which would be exciting. But the Hurricanes don’t care about that excitement.
Canes winger Seth Jarvis said about Thursday’s Game 5 back in D.C.
