The NHL Thanksgiving Panic Index: Who’s Holding On?
The NHL season always brings strong emotions, but the Thanksgiving season in the United States adds an extra layer of intensity. With the tradition of teams in playoff positions feeling a little more secure, it’s a good time to analyze who is at the top and who is facing pressure. Since the NHL adopted the wild card format in the 2013-14 season, 77% of the teams in playoff position on Thanksgiving have managed to reach the postseason (excluding the two COVID-affected seasons), according to data from Alofoke Deportes. In half of those ten seasons, 13 of the 16 teams maintained their playoff spots until the end. There have never been fewer than 11 or more than 13 teams classified on Thanksgiving that ultimately made it in. Last season, the Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, St. Louis Blues, and Edmonton Oilers, who were not in playoff positions on Thanksgiving, managed to qualify. In the last ten non-COVID impacted seasons, the teams that managed to enter the postseason from outside the playoff spots were, on average, 2.8 points away. For some teams, it’s time to worry. But panic is not uniform. There are different types and intensities of panic. Here is the NHL Thanksgiving Panic Index, starting with the teams that feel the least indigestion at the table.Complete Nirvana
Colorado Avalanche
They have reached a state of spiritual enlightenment. With an average of 4.00 goals per game (best in the NHL) and allowing the fewest (2.18 goals against per game), the path to many victories is clear. With a points percentage of .841 and only one regulation loss as of November 24, suffering has been extinguished. Stathletes believes the Avalanche have the highest probability of making the playoffs, winning their conference, and ultimately, the Stanley Cup.Zero Panic
Carolina Hurricanes
Dallas Stars
Tampa Bay Lightning
These three teams are where many expected them to be. The Lightning led the Atlantic Division, which is notable considering the injury and production concerns they’ve had with some of their key players. The Hurricanes have a goal differential worthy of a Rod Brind’Amour team (plus 12), but this time their deep offense is outperforming their defense, which has missed Jaccob Slavin in all but two games. The Stars have remained firm despite injuries to players like Thomas Harley and Matt Duchene, thanks in large part to Jason Robertson (13 goals), Mikko Rantanen (10 goals), and Wyatt Johnston (11 goals), a trio that scored approximately 49% of the team’s goals in 22 games.Concerned, but Relatively Satisfied
Minnesota Wild
New York Islanders
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
Utah Mammoth
Washington Capitals
The key here is “relatively”. All teams have something to hold onto. The Flyers have found a competent goalie (Dan Vladar) to play in Rick Tocchet’s system, which ranks seventh in expected goals against at 5-on-5. The Islanders combine the adrenaline of rookie defenseman Matthew Schaefer with the outstanding goaltending of Ilya Sorokin to rank in the top three of the Metro. The Capitals are in the Metro fight thanks to their goalie Logan Thompson (12.6 goals saved above expectation) and a dominant offensive start by Tom Wilson. The Mammoth are where they want to be: in a playoff position with young stars like Logan Cooley in top form. The Penguins are where no one expected them to be, as the performances of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin have boosted the offense, while a surprisingly solid goaltending has done its defensive job. Meanwhile, the Wild enter Thanksgiving Week at a good time, in a season that has featured a healthy Kirill Kaprizov and the arrival of Jesper Wallstedt, who had a 6-0-2 record in his first eight starts with a .935 save percentage and a 1.94 goals-against average, impacting the race for the rookie of the year award.Worried Until They Recover
Boston Bruins
Florida Panthers
Los Angeles Kings
New Jersey Devils
Ottawa Senators
Vegas Golden Knights
Winnipeg Jets
All these teams have played with significant injuries to key players so far this season.
The Stanley Cup champion Panthers were already going to miss Matthew Tkachuk during the first few months of the season, when captain Aleksander Barkov was injured in his first practice, costing him the regular season and potentially the postseason. They have stayed the course thanks to the outstanding offensive play of Brad Marchand and Sam Reinhart (13 goals each), who are doing their part until Tkachuk returns in the coming weeks. The Devils are doing what they can without Jack Hughes, who needed hand surgery after a strange accident with broken glass at a team dinner in Chicago. Losing a player with 10 goals in his first 17 games for up to two months wasn’t ideal. The same goes for the Jets and two-time Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck, who will be out for a month after corrective surgery for a knee problem. The Bruins (Charlie McAvoy) and the Kings (Drew Doughty) are also losing important defensemen. The Senators are the happiest of this group: captain and podcaster Brady Tkachuk, who missed due to a thumb injury after only three games, is expected to return to the lineup soon.
Panic at the Goal
Columbus Blue Jackets
Detroit Red Wings
Edmonton Oilers
Montreal Canadiens
St. Louis Blues
It’s no news that the Oilers’ goaltending isn’t working, especially after the Stanley Cup Final against Florida in June. This season, it has gone from an Achilles heel to a gangrenous leg. Edmonton has the second-worst save percentage and the fourth-worst in goals saved above expected. The Blues are another team whose goalies haven’t played well from the start. Stathletes has Jordan Binnington with minus 8.75 goals saved above expected in all situations, and Joel Hofer with minus 6.62. St. Louis ranks 29th in save percentage (.869) in 23 games. The problem for the Blue Jackets and the Red Wings is the imbalance. Detroit’s Cam Talbot has played a bit above expectations in 13 starts, with respectable numbers. But John Gibson, acquired from Anaheim to solidify the tandem, has been far from solid in 12 appearances, with minus 3.16 goals saved above expected. Meanwhile, Columbus saw Jet Greaves take off to take the starting goaltender position. He has a 7-4-3 record in 14 starts with a solid .904 save percentage, but his numbers have regressed a bit. The biggest problem is that Elvis Merzlikins has seen his early results (4-1-0, .915 save percentage in October) wasted in his next four appearances. Columbus went from a top-five team save percentage to 16th overall (.896).The problem for the Canadiens? The early-season bubbles bursting. Jakub Dobes had a promising start for the Habs, with a 6-0-0 record in October with a .930 save percentage to help balance out the terrible season Sam Montembeault is having (.852 save percentage, minus 12.92 goals saved above expected). But Dobes has had a difficult November: 1-2-3 with an .843 save percentage behind an increasingly injured Canadiens team. Now he is playing far below expectations (minus 5.72 goals saved above expected).
Panic Regression
Anaheim Ducks
Chicago Blackhawks
San Jose Sharks
Seattle Kraken
PDO is a hockey metric that combines a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage into a single number. It is considered a measure of “puck luck”, while also acting as a predictor: teams with an unusually high PDO are destined to regress to the mean, while those below average should rise at some point. Before Tuesday, the Blackhawks were third in PDO (1.029) at 5-on-5 after finishing 25th last season. Much of that credit is due to goaltender Spencer Knight’s career-redefining season, leading the league in goals saved above expected (plus 15.5, according to Money Puck) and sporting a .924 save percentage. Offensively, they are shooting 12.6%, second in the NHL. Chicago shot 11.2% last season. If Knight is as good as he has looked in the last 15 games, the Blackhawks could stick around for a while. The Kraken are fifth in PDO (1.023) thanks to the league’s best 5-on-5 save percentage (.938). Did anyone expect Matt Murray (.952), Philipp Grubauer (.935), and Joey Daccord (.927) to do what they’ve been doing at even strength this season? The Lane Lambert effect as head coach means the Kraken have some offensive issues, ranking 18th in team shooting percentage (10.7%). The goaltending has them in a playoff spot at Thanksgiving. Will it hold? The Sharks are right behind the Kraken (1.022) after 23 games, fueled by the fifth-best shooting percentage in the league, thanks to Macklin “20.9%” Celebrini, and the goaltending of Yaroslav Askarov, who Money Puck has near the top of the league in goals saved above expected (plus 8.51). Youth and depth could eventually catch up to them, but boy are they fun. Then come the Ducks in seventh place in PDO (1.020). They ranked eighth in 5-on-5 save percentage in 22 games, thanks to Lukas Dostal’s Vezina Trophy-worthy goaltending (.917 save percentage at even strength), masking the second-worst expected goals against at 5-on-5 in the league. Offensively, they are a giant, averaging 3.59 goals per game in 22 games, only surpassed by Colorado. There are reasons to believe that offense will keep rolling. The Ducks’ playoff fate depends on the other end of the rink.Existential Fear
Buffalo Sabres
When things went wrong for the Sabres in their first 22 games, such as when they lost eight of nine games, the reaction was “here we go again”.When things go well for the Sabres, like when they won four of five games before Thanksgiving, the reaction was the most cautious optimism imaginable with an impending sense of doom, which is understandable when every season since the last playoff appearance in 2011 has been a mockery or a failure.
After 22 games, Money Puck gave the Sabres a 7.5% chance of making the playoffs. But Stathletes put their odds at a robust 33.4%. There’s no better example of the diverging paths ahead for this Buffalo team. If Tage Thompson continues to dominate, if Mattias Samuelsson and Rasmus Dahlin remain a fundamental duo, if they can get enough success in goal… maybe the drought will end? Or maybe this will end up being the fifteenth consecutive “wait until next year.”Extremely Panicked
Calgary Flames
New York Rangers
Toronto Maple Leafs
Before Wednesday night, there was only one team in the Eastern Conference with a points percentage below .500: the Maple Leafs (.477 in 22 games), who occupied the last place in the East. Star center Auston Matthews only played in 17 of those games. His return will help, and they are certainly missing other injured players like Chris Tanev. But there are so many other flaws in the Leafs, such as a mediocre 5-on-5 game, terrible special teams, below-average goaltending, and a goals-against average near the bottom of the league, that it’s difficult to diagnose what needs to change to turn things around. Although the firing of coach Craig Berube has been a popular method discussed by fans and the media. Calgary has dug itself a considerable hole in a suddenly more competitive division. But the Flames (.396 save percentage) recently found a pulse after hockey operations president Don Maloney told Sportsnet that the team isn’t “throwing in the towel” or looking for a total demolition of its roster. Whether that’s the right long-term tactic is open to debate. But it wasn’t good news for fans hoping their contending teams would add someone like Nazem Kadri to the mix via a trade. Unlike the Leafs (4.3%) and the Flames (5.3%), the Rangers had a good chance (42.7%) of making the postseason, according to Stathletes. When they defensively shelter in front of Igor Shesterkin, the Rangers can be a very effective defensive team. But they have been an offensive disaster since the start of the season, with players like captain J.T. Miller failing to reach their typical point paces. They are inconsistent and haven’t calmed concerns about their depth. But it’s that lack of offense that has the Blueshirts a little nervous about their luck this season.Beyond Panic
Nashville Predators
Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks were the first team to blink this season. After accumulating a points percentage of .435 in 23 games, hockey operations president Jim Rutherford told Postmedia on Tuesday that the Canucks need to get younger and confirmed they were considering trades for pending free agent veterans like Evander Kane. “Use the word that people like, whether it’s some kind of reconstruction, not a total rebuild, but a reconstruction-remodel, whatever,” Rutherford said. “It’s the position we’ve been in since the J.T. Miller trade [last season].” Are the Predators next? General Manager Barry Trotz told Alofoke Deportes this week that the team’s next seven games will determine their approach for the rest of the season. He is receiving calls from other teams about his veteran players. He has had conversations with their agents about what could happen in the future. They are not yet open to doing business, but with a points percentage of .364 after 22 games, how long will it be before that happens?
