NHL Panic Index: Which teams are suffering on Thanksgiving?

The NHL Thanksgiving Panic Index: Who’s Holding On?

The Thanksgiving tradition in the United States comes with turkey, pumpkin pie, and the parade with giant balloons. In the NHL, this date marks a crucial moment for teams in the fight for the playoffs.

Since the NHL adopted the wild card format in the 2013-14 season, 77% of the teams that were in playoff position on Thanksgiving managed to qualify for the Stanley Cup (excluding the two seasons affected by COVID-19), according to studies. In half of those ten seasons, 13 of the 16 teams remained in playoff positions at the end of the season. There have never been fewer than 11 or more than 13 teams in playoff positions on Thanksgiving that ultimately qualified.

In other words, there are always teams that, being out, manage to get in. Last season, the Montreal Canadiens, the Ottawa Senators, the St. Louis Blues, and the Edmonton Oilers, were not in playoff positions at Thanksgiving, but managed to reach the postseason. In the last 10 non-COVID seasons, the teams that managed to enter the postseason after being out at Thanksgiving were 2.8 points away from qualifying.

It’s time to analyze the NHL’s “Thanksgiving Panic Index”, starting with the teams that have the least to worry about.

Complete Nirvana

Colorado Avalanche

They have reached a state of spiritual enlightenment. With an average of 4.00 goals per game (best in the NHL) and allowing the fewest (2.18 goals against per game), the path to victory seems clear. With a points percentage of .841 and only one regulation loss as of November 24th, suffering seems extinguished. Stathletes gives the Avalanche the highest probability of making the playoffs, winning their conference, and ultimately the Stanley Cup. Namaste, Nathan MacKinnon.

Zero Panic

Carolina Hurricanes
Dallas Stars
Tampa Bay Lightning

These three teams are where many expected them to be. The Lightning lead the Atlantic Division, despite injuries and concerns about their production, especially with Brayden Point. Perhaps this only reflects the overall quality of the Atlantic Division. The Hurricanes have a goal difference similar to that of a Rod Brind’Amour team (plus 12), but this time their offense outperforms their defense, which has missed Jaccob Slavin in almost every game. The Stars are holding strong despite injuries to players like Thomas Harley and Matt Duchene, thanks in large part to Jason Robertson (13 goals), Mikko Rantanen (10 goals), and Wyatt Johnston (11 goals), a trio that scored approximately 49% of the team’s goals in 22 games.

Worried, but Relatively Satisfied

Minnesota Wild
New York Islanders
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
Utah Mammoth
Washington Capitals

The key here is “relatively”. Each team has reasons to be optimistic. The Flyers have found a competent goalie (Dan Vladar) to play in Rick Tocchet’s system, which ranks seventh in expected goals against at 5-on-5. The Islanders combine the adrenaline of rookie defenseman Matthew Schaefer with the outstanding goaltending of Ilya Sorokin to rank in the top three of the Metro. The Capitals are in the Metro fight thanks to their stellar goalie Logan Thompson (12.6 goals saved above expected) and a dominant offensive start from Tom Wilson, both seeking a place on the Canadian Olympic team. The Mammoth are where they want to be: in a playoff position with young stars like Logan Cooley in top form. The Penguins are where no one expected them to be, thanks to the performance of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, who have boosted the offense, while the surprisingly solid goaltending has delivered defensively. Meanwhile, the Wild enter Thanksgiving week at a good time, in a season that has featured a healthy Kirill Kaprizov and the arrival of Jesper Wallstedt, who had a 6-0-2 record in his first eight starts with a .935 save percentage.

Worried Until They Recover

Boston Bruins
Florida Panthers
Los Angeles Kings
New Jersey Devils
Ottawa Senators
Vegas Golden Knights
Winnipeg JetsAll of these teams have dealt with significant injuries to key players so far this season. The Stanley Cup champion Panthers were already going to miss Matthew Tkachuk during the first months of the season, when captain Aleksander Barkov was injured. They have kept up the pace thanks to the offensive play of Brad Marchand and Sam Reinhart (13 goals each), who are doing their part until Tkachuk returns in the coming weeks. The Devils are doing their best without Jack Hughes, who needed surgery on his hand after a strange accident. The Jets are also suffering the loss of Connor Hellebuyck, who will be out for a month after corrective surgery on a knee. The Bruins (Charlie McAvoy) and the Kings (Drew Doughty) also miss their star defenses. The Senators are the luckiest of this group: Brady Tkachuk is expected to return soon after a thumb injury.

The Tkachuk brothers announce a new podcast

Panic at the Goal

Columbus Blue Jackets
Detroit Red Wings
Edmonton Oilers
Montreal Canadiens
St. Louis Blues

It’s no news that the Oilers’ goaltending isn’t working, especially after last June’s Stanley Cup Final. This season, the problem has worsened. Edmonton has the second-worst save percentage and the fourth-worst in goals saved above expected. Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard have their moments, but once again, a Connor McDavid team is being affected by goaltending. The Blues also have problems with their goalies. Stathletes places Jordan Binnington at minus 8.75 goals saved above expected and Joel Hofer at minus 6.62. St. Louis ranks 29th in save percentage (.869) in 23 games. The problem for the Blue Jackets and Red Wings is imbalance. Detroit’s Cam Talbot has played above expectations in 13 starts. But John Gibson, acquired from Anaheim, has been far from solid in 12 appearances, with minus 3.16 goals saved above expected.

Meanwhile, Columbus saw Jet Greaves get off to a great start, but his numbers have come down a bit. The problem is that Elvis Merzlikins has seen his initial results squandered in his next four appearances. Columbus went from a top-five team save percentage to 16th overall (.896).

The Canadiens’ problem? Jakub Dobes’ performance, who had a good start, but has had a bad November: 1-2-3 with a save percentage of .843. Now he is playing below expectations (minus 5.72 goals saved above expected).

Panic Regression

Anaheim Ducks
Chicago Blackhawks
San Jose Sharks
Seattle Kraken

The PDO is a hockey metric that combines a team’s shooting percentage and save percentage into a single number. It is considered a measure of “puck luck”. The Blackhawks are third in PDO (1.029) at 5-on-5. Much of the credit goes to goaltender Spencer Knight. Offensively, they are shooting 12.6%, second in the NHL. If Knight is as good as he seems, the Blackhawks could hang around for a while. The Kraken are fifth in PDO (1.023) thanks to the best save percentage in 5-on-5 in the league (.938). The goaltending keeps them in a playoff spot on Thanksgiving. Will it last? The Sharks are right behind the Kraken (1.022), fueled by the fifth-best shooting percentage in the league and Yaroslav Askarov’s goaltending. Youth and depth could eventually catch up to them. Then come the Ducks in seventh place in PDO (1.020). Their playoff fate depends on the other side of the ice.

Existential Panic

Buffalo Sabres

When things aren’t going well for the Sabres, the reaction is “here we go again.” When things are going well, the reaction is cautious optimism with an impending sense of doom. Money Puck gives the Sabres a 7.5% chance of making the playoffs. Stathletes gives them 33.4%. If Tage Thompson continues to dominate, if Mattias Samuelsson and Rasmus Dahlin continue to be a solid pairing, maybe the drought will end. Or maybe it will be the 15th “wait until next year”.

Extremely Concerned

Calgary Flames
New York Rangers
Toronto Maple Leafs

The Maple Leafs are the only team in the Eastern Conference with a points percentage below .500. Auston Matthews’ return will help, but there are many problems with the Leafs: mediocre 5-on-5 play, terrible special teams, below-average goaltending, and a goals-against average near the bottom of the league. Calgary has dug itself a considerable hole. The Rangers have a good chance of making the postseason, but they have been an offensive disaster since the start of the season. Their lack of offense is what has the Blueshirts a little nervous.

Beyond Panic

Nashville Predators
Vancouver Canucks

The Canucks were the first team to react. President of hockey operations, Jim Rutherford, confirmed they were considering trades for veteran players. Will the Predators be next?