The NHL Free Agent Market: Who Are the Stars in Play?
NHL teams are preparing for a key offseason, with a clear understanding of the projected increase in the salary cap over the next three years. The salary cap is expected to rise to $95.5 million next season, to $104 million in 2026-27, and up to $113.5 million in 2027-28. This could lead to more teams comfortably retaining their own players with expiring contracts or inflated offers in free agency. Here’s an analysis of the unrestricted free agents, divided into different categories, along with some important restricted free agents.
Contract terms and average annual contract values are based on PuckPedia. In the case of players whose salaries were retained in transactions, the full average annual value of their contracts is listed.
Which players do you expect your team to sign in this offseason?
Level 1: Mitch Marner’s Group
The free agent who will garner the most attention this offseason.
Mitch Marner, C, Toronto Maple Leafs
Age: 28 | Salary impact 2024-25: $10,903,000Marner’s noncommittal answers at Toronto’s post-season press conference only fueled speculation that the winger, who has played his entire nine-year career with his childhood team, is on his way out of Toronto. It could be time for a change: blaming Marner for playoff failures has become an annual ritual, and he will easily break the bank in unrestricted free agency. The temptation to leave has never been so strong.
In the last five seasons, six players have more points than Marner (450 in 357 games): Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Artemi Panarin, and David Pastrnak. Marner has scored the fewest goals (138) of that group, but he is significantly better defensively than most of them: his 14 shorthanded points in that span tie him with Aleksander Barkov, who is currently collecting Selke Trophies as if they were Pokémon.
Marner’s points-per-game average in the last five regular seasons is 1.26. It drops to 0.93 in the playoffs during that period. Although he has 42 points in 48 games, Marner has been called “passive” and much worse in the playoffs. Former NHL player Jordan Schmaltz said Marner avoids physical plays in the postseason as if he has “a parachute” on his back.
All this to say that Marner is a complicated acquisition. The skill is unquestionable. The will, when the games matter most, has been questioned annually. Who wants that on their roster and how much is it worth?
At one point, it was reported that the Leafs were considering an eight-year, $13.5 million per season deal, which would have made him the team’s highest-paid player annually, above Auston Matthews ($13.25 million). Mikko Rantanen, who would have been the star of free agency had he not signed with the Dallas Stars, is earning $12 million annually for eight years in a state with no income tax, for context.
The Carolina Hurricanes tried to acquire Marner for Rantanen, but were rejected by the player, who had a full no-movement clause, and a son due in May, which made that decision completely understandable. They have the cap space and the need to be interested in Marner again.
Rising teams like the Anaheim Ducks, Chicago Blackhawks, and Utah Mammoth have been mentioned for Marner; if he still wants a bit of that Original Six flavor, playing in the Windy City while feeding passes to Connor Bedard wouldn’t hurt.
Speculation has swirled around teams that love to make noise in the offseason, such as the Florida Panthers and the Vegas Golden Knights, as well as the Los Angeles Kings and the New York Islanders, who might look to make a big splash. There has even been talk of a reunion with former Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas on the Pittsburgh Penguins; hell, if the criticism of Marner is that he can’t figure out playoff hockey, you could do a lot worse than having Sidney Crosby as your tutor for a couple of seasons.
All of this assuming he’s leaving Toronto. While it certainly seems like that will happen, let’s remember the golden rule of NHL free agency: his skills are there.
Level 2: Impact Players
These are established players who can play key and immediate roles for a team.
Sam Bennett, C, Florida Panthers
Age: 29 | Salary impact 2024-25: $4.425 millionBennett is essentially the anti-Marner: most of his value is derived from his postseason play at all costs, with the “costs” typically being the physical well-being of opponents. Bennett is a reliable performer in the regular season, as he had 25 goals and 26 assists this season for the Panthers, along with 90 penalty minutes.
You will be paid handsomely this summer. Perhaps by someone looking for you to be the final piece of their championship puzzle; or perhaps as a Stanley Cup-winning coach who can instruct a mediocre team on how to take the next step.It’s assumed someone will take Bennett away from the Panthers, but let’s remember two things here: he loves playing for Florida, and general manager Bill Zito knows what an essential ingredient Bennett has been in their postseason success, and that Bennett comprises a dynamic duo with star Matthew Tkachuk. The two sides have engaged in contract talks during the season.
Brock Boeser, RW, Vancouver Canucks
Age: 28 | Salary impact 2024-25: $6.65 millionThere’s likely more interest outside of Vancouver in signing Boeser than within the Canucks organization, which has sent mixed signals about retaining him. He’s one season removed from a 40-goal campaign and has alleviated concerns about his ability to stay in the lineup for a full season.
There has been much speculation that the Burnsville, Minnesota native could find his way to the Wild, but don’t rule out potential suitors like the Hurricanes and the New Jersey Devils.
Nikolaj Ehlers, LW/RW, Winnipeg Jets
Age: 29 | Salary impact 2024-25: $6 million The Jets’ general manager, Kevin Cheveldayoff, has done an impressive job of dispelling the accusation of “nobody wants to sign in Winnipeg,” as he has managed to re-sign Mark Scheifele, Connor Hellebuyck, and Neal Pionk in recent years. Ehlers is his latest test. “We will do everything we can with him to try and present our case to be a lifetime player,” Cheveldayoff said.A consistent point producer, Ehlers did everything he could to earn a payday as a free agent with his best points-per-60-minutes average (3.5) in five years. He is an offensive force, when in the lineup, as Ehlers has played more than 70 games only once in the last four seasons, and has also missed time in the playoffs.
Aaron Ekblad, D, Florida Panthers
Age: 29 | Salary impact 2024-25: $7.5 millionThe common idea when the Panthers acquired Seth Jones from the Blackhawks was that the team would let defenseman number 1, Aaron Ekblad, walk as a free agent. But Zito has been adamant that the team could still retain the career Panther, even with Jones adding $7 million to their defense and with Florida having other contractual matters to address (such as a possible new deal for Bennett).
With options like Jakob Chychrun who have re-signed before free agency (eight years, $72 million with Washington), Ekblad is easily the best defenseman of renown available, and one with a Stanley Cup ring, no less. He had 33 points with an average ice time of 23:31 in 56 games this season, which was cut short by a 20-game suspension for violating the terms of the NHL/NHLPA’s performance-enhancing substances program.
Brad Marchand, LW, Florida Panthers
Age: 37 | Salary impact 2024-25: $6.125 millionThere hasn’t been a better announcement of the star winger’s value than what he’s done with the Panthers after they acquired him from the Bruins. He has brought veteran tenacity to their last six, while occasionally appearing to play with Aleksander Barkov. He has also produced, with 13 points in 16 playoff games.
As coach Paul Maurice pointed out, the Panthers needed a player as vocal and media-friendly as Marchand to take the pressure off some of the team’s more reserved talents.If he doesn’t stay in Sunrise, there will be no shortage of teams interested in adding his winning pedigree, although salary and term will be the trick to signing him. Let’s be realistic: there wouldn’t be a more interesting next chapter than Marchand signing with the Maple Leafs, the team he has tormented for years, but recently admitted he cheered for the Leafs when he was a kid growing up in Halifax.
Brock Nelson, C, Colorado Avalanche
Age: 33 | Salary impact 2024-25: $6 millionNelson was one of several players the Avalanche added in their trade deadline shopping spree who couldn’t overcome Dallas in the first round. Nelson had six goals and seven assists in 19 games for the Avs in the regular season, but he didn’t score in four of their seven playoff games against Dallas.
Was the fit good enough for both to seek to extend in Colorado, or are there other destinations for Nelson to bring his variety of skills and get some additional contractual term in the process?
John Tavares, C, Toronto Maple Leafs
Age: 34 | Salary impact 2024-25: $11 millionWhile Mitch Marner didn’t commit to his future in Toronto, Tavares did everything but sing a rendition of “And I Am Telling You I’m Not Going” from “Dreamgirls” after their playoff elimination.
“I’ve expressed my desire to stay and to want it to work,” said the veteran center.Will the Leafs bring him back at the right price, or is Tavares another sacrifice on the list made in the name of changing the mix after their playoff disappointment? An intriguing potential destination: Utah, which could use both a big free agent signing and a veteran presence down the middle.
Level 3: The Best Bets
These players have proven they are worth the investment.
Matt Duchene, C, Dallas Stars
Age: 34 | Salary impact 2024-2025: $3 million Duchene has found a fit in Dallas, and Dallas found a fit in Duchene. It was one of the best value signings last offseason, signing a one-year extension for $3 million before adding 82 points in 82 games, his best offensive season since 2021-22 with Nashville. His playoff production in 16 games was less exceptional, with only one goal and five assists.Given the lack of unrestricted veteran annotators with their credentials, there might be a temptation to check how green the grass is elsewhere. But Duchene might be following that end-of-career path of other veterans: accepting a series of one-year deals to stay with a team he likes.
Vladislav Gavrikov, D, Los Angeles Kings
Age: 29 | Salary impact 2024-2025: $5.875 million Gavrikov has just completed a two-year contract that he signed with General Manager Rob Blake in 2023. The catch here: Blake is no longer the general manager, with Ken Holland now in charge in Los Angeles. Gavrikov had a solid defensive season with the Kings and contributed 30 points (five goals, 25 assists), which was the second-highest total of his six-season career. He was solid when paired with Mikey Anderson or Jordan Spence.This all says the Kings should try to retain Gavrikov. But if his new deal is too costly for what Holland wants to do with the rest of this roster, other teams will gladly add him to their defense.
Claude Giroux, C, Ottawa Senators
Age: 37 | Salary impact 2024-2025: $6.5 million Unless something unforeseen happens, Giroux should extend his relationship with the Senators before free agency arrives. He had 50 points in 81 games last season, his third with Ottawa, who made the playoffs for the first time in eight seasons.There’s no reason to believe he won’t still be a senator next season, but if he’s released, he has enough offensive power to help someone.
Yanni Gourde, C, Tampa Bay Lightning
Age: 33 | Salary impact 2024-2025: $5,166,666He was coveted at the trade deadline as a checking center with championship experience in the Stanley Cup. Gourde ended up returning to the Lightning from the Seattle Kraken, for whom he tallied 14 points in 21 games, but was not a factor in five playoff games.
General manager Julien BriseBois has said the team acquired Gourde with the idea of keeping him beyond this season. But as Steven Stamkos will attest, that usually means it will happen based on the Lightning’s finances, which might not sync up with Gourde’s.
Mikael Granlund, C, Dallas Stars
Age: 33 | Salary impact 2024-2025: $5 millionOne of several big moves made by Stars general manager Jim Nill this season, Granlund was rescued from last-place San Jose, for whom he recorded 45 points in 52 games. Granlund had 21 points in 31 games for Dallas, then nine in 16 playoff games, while skating on the “Finnish Mafia” line with Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz.
Someone will likely overpay for Granlund, whose increase in goal scoring has coincided with pending free agency. But he has produced points wherever he has played (excluding Pittsburgh).
Kyle Palmieri, RW, New York Islanders
Age: 34 | Salary impact 2024-2025: $5 millionPalmieri offers Islanders’ new general manager, Mathieu Darche, one of his first challenges. It’s clear that former general manager Lou Lamoriello wanted to extend the winger, holding onto him at the trade deadline. There’s virtue in that: Palmieri recorded 30 goals and 24 goals over the last two seasons, and offense isn’t exactly abundant on the Islanders’ roster.
That being said, it’s time for New York to change the template that Lamoriello built to diminish returns, and Palmieri has been there since 2021.Ivan Provorov, D, Columbus Blue JacketsAge: 28 | Salary impact 2024-2025: $6.75 million Provorov is a good skater who can play on the power play and penalty kill while consuming considerable minutes (23:21 per game). He is a very solid puck carrier who has elite puck retrieval skills. If the Blue Jackets retain him, he can be the veteran anchor of their second pairing behind Zach Werenski.They held onto him at the trade deadline, and general manager Don Waddell said he wants to sign him this summer. If Provorov hits the open market, he won’t be the only general manager with that goal.
Level 4: The Best Values
Discreet gems, analytics favorites, and difference makers with low-cost contracts.Anthony Beauvillier, F, Washington Capitals
Age: 27 | Salary impact 2024-25: $1.25 millionThis isn’t the first time Beauvillier has been at this level, but his season with the Penguins and Capitals underscored how valuable he can be on a budget contract, especially his six points in 10 playoff games with the Caps in his brief playoff run.
Solid underlying numbers, good production and still only 27 until next month.Connor Brown, RW, Edmonton Oilers
Age: 31 | Salary impact 2024-25: $1 millionIf it weren’t for the other Connor stealing all the attention in Edmonton, perhaps more people would have appreciated the regular season that Connor Brown had for the Oilers: 13 goals and 17 assists in 82 games, skating to a plus-9 in 14:01 of average time on ice per game, with a steal of a contract.
It took his playoff explosion, five goals and three assists in 14 games, to really get noticed: A hardworking player who sets the pace.Evgenii Dadonov, F, Dallas Stars
Age: 36 | Salary impact 2024-25: $2.25 million “Dad” had an impressive walking year with 20 goals and 20 assists in 80 games. He saw similar averages in the first year of his two-year contract with Dallas. He will never return to the offensive numbers he posted in his prime, but with the right average annual value, Dadonov can be an offensive force in the regular season.Brian Dumoulin, D, New Jersey Devils
Age: 33 | Salary impact 2024-25: $3.15 million The former Anaheim Duck was an acquisition at the trade deadline for New Jersey who was pressed into more service than expected due to injuries on the Devils’ defense corps in the playoffs. In his five-game series against Carolina, Dumoulin averaged 29:21 per game in ice time, skating over 36 minutes in two overtime games and playing well in the process. The two-time Cup winner with Pittsburgh can still contribute in the postseason.Dante Fabbro, D, Columbus Blue Jackets
Age: 26 | Salary impact 2024-25: $2.5 million Yes, that’s Dante Fabbro of why the Nashville Predators put Dante Fabbro on waivers last season? fame. The Preds’ loss and the Jackets’ gain, as Fabbro had 26 points in 62 games, skating to a plus-23 with Columbus as Zach Werenski’s partner.The underlying numbers reaffirm that he was great at both ends of the rink. Obviously, a lot of that is playing with a Norris Trophy finalist, but Fabbro earned his time with Werenski.
Matt Grzelcyk, D, Pittsburgh Penguins
Age: 31 | Salary impact 2024-25: $2.75 million The former Boston Bruins defenseman had a quietly strong season for the Penguins with one goal, but 39 assists, 24 of them at even strength. Defense was never his calling card, but offensively, he was solid in both traditional and analytical stats.Victor Olofsson, F, Vegas Golden Knights
Age: 29 | Salary impact 2024-25: $1.075 million Wait, a former Buffalo Sabres forward who is acquired by the Golden Knights and finds his game again? Never seen before…Anyway, Olofsson had 15 goals and 14 assists on a bargain “show-me” contract. He has shown in the past that, when healthy, he has a great deal of offensive potential.
Reilly Smith, F, Vegas Golden Knights
Age: 34/Salary impact 2024-25: $5 millionThere’s a reason the Golden Knights brought him back with Smith at the trade deadline. He’s a perfectly useful depth forward who’s going to produce decently on offense and can contribute on both special teams.
It’s fine if he’s assigned the right role, i.e. not a first-line winger, as the Rangers discovered.
Pius Suter, F, Vancouver Canucks
Age: 29 | Salary impact 2024-25: $1.6 million Suter is on the verge of a possible overpayment, after setting personal records in goals (25) and points (46) in a contract year with the Canucks. But his goal production has been consistent in limited roles throughout his career, and he does enough away from the puck, according to analytics, that even a drop in last season’s numbers won’t make a multiplier on his salary impact regrettable.Level 5: The Risks
Players who have the ability to justify the investment or whose contracts could become a monstrosity on PuckPedia.Jamie Benn, LW, Dallas Stars
Age: 35 | Salary impact 2024-2025: $9.5 millionBenn signed his eight-year contract in July 2016, but somehow it feels much further back than that. Perhaps because of his 16 years with Dallas; when Benn was a rookie, Mike Modano was still with the Stars. But also because this contract was a topic of debate from the moment it was signed.
While Benn’s most productive offensive days are behind him, he has still managed 49 points in 80 games this season in a limited role; he has been under 16 minutes of average ice time for the last three seasons.
General Manager Nill said Benn will be a Dallas star for life, but the two decided that this season would play out before talking about the extension. Benn’s value is in his leadership, physicality, and intangibles. But Dallas, or any team that signs him, must be careful with the AAV and the term here.
Brent Burns, D, Carolina Hurricanes
