Quarter Season Analysis: NHL Predictions Tested
On September 24th, before the start of the 2025-26 NHL season, bold predictions were made for all 32 teams. Now, with a quarter of the season underway, it’s time to assess the validity of those claims. Some predictions have already proven to be correct, while others have been completely wrong. Here’s a progress report on those bold predictions, grading each on a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 indicates the prediction will not come true and 10 indicates it was a complete success.
Boston Bruins
Prediction: The Bruins will trade Pavel Zacha. Considering the Bruins’ moves last season, it seemed logical that Zacha would be traded during the team’s rebuild. He is a center who plays in all facets of the game and has shown great offensive performance since arriving in Boston. In addition, his contract extends until next season with a cost of $4.75 million annually, an affordable value for the salary cap. Zacha’s availability depends on several factors, such as whether Boston considers him part of their long-term plans, whether the team is competing for a playoff spot, and whether any team in the league, in need of centers, makes an attractive offer to general manager Don Sweeney.Trust rating: 7Buffalo Sabres
Prediction: Rasmus Dahlin will be a Norris Trophy finalist. Dahlin is playing with a lot on his mind. Before the season, he revealed that his fiancée, Carolina Matovac, received a heart transplant this summer after a health issue during a vacation. Earlier this month, he returned to Sweden to care for her, missing three games. The support he received from the hockey community was inspiring and a reminder of how far we’ve come in considering a player’s life outside the NHL. In the 17 games Dahlin has played, he has accumulated 14 points, with 13 assists. This places him among the top 10 defensemen in scoring. The fact that he plays for a Sabres team that is once again struggling to compete shouldn’t affect his Norris candidacy, as he finished sixth in voting for the award last season. If there’s an analytical argument in favor of his defense along with strong offensive numbers, he has a chance to be one of the three finalists. The real concern with this bold prediction is that, in the foreseeable future, there might only be one Norris Trophy finalist spot open for someone other than Cale Makar or Quinn Hughes.Trust rating: 5Detroit Red Wings
Prediction: Steve Yzerman advances.Naturally, I predicted that the Red Wings’ general manager would abandon the throne in the season that Detroit raced to first place in the Atlantic. I still don’t have much faith in the “Yzerplan” (the poor starts of top prospect Marco Kasper and the John Gibson goaltending solution haven’t helped), but Stevie Y is unlikely to go anywhere if the Red Wings improve their .524 points percentage from last season. Of course, that will depend on whether Detroit avoids its traditional second-half slump. In the last two seasons, the Red Wings have a 16-23-4 record after March 1. If they don’t make the playoffs and are worse than last season’s record… well, he’s been the general manager since 2019. How many more opportunities will the franchise legend have?
Trust rating: 4Florida Panthers
Prediction: Sergei Bobrovsky gets a “Marchand” deal. Bob from the regular season is the guy who has a 9-5-0 record in 14 games with a .883 save percentage and a 2.80 goals against average. He does what he needs to do to get points and make the postseason. Which is where he becomes Playoff Bob, the guy who has led the Panthers to three consecutive Stanley Cup Finals and two consecutive championships. The guy with a .914 save percentage and a 2.20 goals against average in 23 postseason games last season. The Panthers just re-signed a guy named Sam Bennett, who is productive in the regular season and a monster in the playoffs. I imagine they will do the same with Bobrovsky. The Panthers also just re-signed a 37-year-old to a six-year contract that pays him 5.25 against the salary cap annually. I imagine they will do the same with Bobrovsky. Like Brad Marchand, he doesn’t want to leave either.Trust rating: 8Montreal Canadiens
Prediction: Kaiden Guhle earns league-wide recognition. Well, it turns out Kaiden Guhle played five games before undergoing surgery for a partial tear of the adductor muscle and will miss at least two months of the season. Now, that leaves enough time in the season for him to make an impact and earn the recognition he deserves. Or, failing that, the Canadiens desperately miss him while he recovers and is appreciated for his absence.Trust rating: 6Ottawa Senators
Prediction: Dylan Cozens sets new career highs. The goals of this bold prediction: 31 goals and 68 points, set when Cozens was a 21-year-old center with the Sabres in 2022-23. Progress so far: Cozens has seven goals and seven assists in 19 games. That puts him around 30 goals, but well below his career points total. Praying for a good run of play at some point this season.Trust rating: 3Tampa Bay Lightning
Prediction: The Lightning will win the Atlantic Division. The Lightning stumbled at the start with a 1-4-2 record and then suffered a series of injuries to players like Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh, and Anthony Cirelli. Now they have won nine of 12 games and some of the aspects of their team that were struggling, such as their power play, could be taking shape. At some point it would be good for Brayden Point to look like Brayden Point again, but he has time. Stathletes projects that the Lightning have an 81.5% chance of finishing first in the Atlantic Division. We’ll take it.Trust rating: 8Toronto Maple Leafs
Prediction: The Leafs will keep Nick Robertson. Given all the circumstances surrounding the Maple Leafs in the first month of the season, this prediction reads as an act of cowardice. Where was “Craig Berube gets fired before Christmas”? Or “the Leafs don’t make the playoffs directly”? Instead, I predicted that Nick Robertson, a player who is always in trade rumors, would stay on the team instead of being sent away. He’s still there, playing in 19 of his 20 games and has 11 points. But who knows where the strange season in Toronto will take him.Trust rating: 7Metropolitan DivisionCarolina Hurricanes
Prediction: The Canes will win the Eastern Conference. The Hurricanes’ regular season success has become so expected under coach Rod Brind’amour that their 13-5-1 start is just background noise in the Eastern Conference at this point, despite not having star defenseman Jaccob Slavin in all but two games. They have reached the conference final in three of the seven years that Rod the Bod has coached them, including two of the last three seasons in which they were eliminated by the Florida Panthers. There’s no shame in that. Ask Edmonton. Their problem in the playoffs continues to be their ability to score goals. They averaged 3.12 goals per game during that three-year postseason period, down from 3.27 in 246 regular season games from 2022-25. Lacking a star scorer like Jake Guentzel or Mikko Rantanen, perhaps that flaw will prevent them from playing for the Stanley Cup again. Or perhaps the early returns from Carolina’s offense this season (3.63 goals per game in 19 games) underscore how deep their goal generation is in this edition of the Canes, indicating that they have enough to finally break through the Eastern Conference ceiling. All that ignores the elephant in the room, which is that no one in the Eastern Conference looks as formidable right now compared to the Hurricanes. Unless, of course, the Panthers get Aleksander Barkov back for the playoffs…Trust rating: 7Columbus Blue Jackets
Prediction: Jet Greaves takes over the goal.There have been few more impactful statistics than the fact that the Blue Jackets are among the leaders in team save percentage through the first 20 games of the season, given the recent effectiveness between the pipes. The goaltending rotation of Jet Greaves and Elvis Merzļikins was working well, but it was becoming increasingly obvious that Greaves was outperforming his teammate. He had a .904 save percentage in 12 games and more goals saved than expected. If the net isn’t Greaves’ now, it will be eventually. The Jackets have waited for someone to play well enough to relegate Merzļikins to a backup role, and Jet might have the fuel to do it.
Trust rating: 7New Jersey Devils
Prediction: Jack Hughes plays 82 games. Mea culpa: I didn’t know the Devils were going to have a team dinner at a Chicago steakhouse in which Jack Hughes would have what has been called a “freak accident” involving glass cutting his finger. Jack underwent surgery and will be out a minimum of six weeks, which almost ensures that New Jersey will remain a franchise without a 50-goal scorer or a 100-point player and that his bold prediction can already be thrown in the trash. On the bright side, Hughes was right when he mocked reporters before the season about his offseason conditioning and perpetual injuries. There’s no accounting for freak accidents on the ice or around glass.Trust Rating: ZERONew York Islanders
Prediction: Patrick Roy coaches his last season in Long Island. I’m going to blame Matthew Schaefer for messing up what should have been a pretty easy call here. Roy, according to reports, doesn’t have a contract beyond this season. He has a new general manager in Mathieu Darche who had nothing to do with his hiring and, as a new general manager, would probably like to get his own man at some point. The Islanders were projected to finish with around 84 points and had a 1 in 4 chance of making the playoffs. Then, the first overall pick of 18-year-olds in the NHL draft appears, plays like Cale Makar, and infuses the entire organization with youthful enthusiasm and optimism. Suddenly, the Islanders are in a playoff spot and on the rise in the East. I’m not selling this prediction yet because of the factors mentioned above and because it’s very early. But, am I shaking my fist in the direction of Matthew Schaefer while muttering something about “these kids today”?Trust rating: 5New York Rangers
Prediction: The Rangers return to the playoffs.There have been moments in the first 21 games of the season where this prediction looked pretty good, and there have been moments where the Rangers making the playoffs seem implausible. Stathletes says there is an 84.2% chance that the Blueshirts will make the Stanley Cup playoffs, which gives me hope. So do the seasons that goaltender Igor Shesterkin and defenseman Adam Fox are having, and the seasons that players like forwards Will Cuylle and Vincent Trocheck will have when they overcome the team’s early-season offensive struggles. And yet, I worry about their depth, which was a concern before the season and a deeper one after having seen them. I worry about J.T. Miller, the Rangers captain whose offensive numbers have plummeted while fan cameras capture him acting apathetically defensively. I worry that the chemistry won’t work and that the competition will be too good. But I maintain faith that Mike Sullivan and the Rangers will solve this. And if they don’t, general manager Chris Drury will undoubtedly be aggressive in trying to make sure they do.
Trust rating: 7Philadelphia Flyers
Prediction: The Flyers win the Gavin McKenna draft lottery.The impetus for this prediction was basically a joke for Penguins fans who thought their team would continue their downward trajectory only to end up with the number one phenomenon in next year’s draft who also happens to play at Penn State. Wouldn’t it be funny if he went to the other team in the state? Ha, ha. Everyone laughs. Well, it turns out the Penguins aren’t currently playing like a lottery team and the Flyers are stubbornly clinging in the Metro Division under head coach Rick Tocchet thanks to the exceptional goaltending of offseason acquisition Dan Vladar. I am encouraged that the analytical community still sees the Flyers as an eventual basement team. Stathletes projects them as a lottery team (89.2 points). Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic has them much lower with 81.6 points, ahead of only four other teams. I remember sharing this prediction with someone in Philadelphia recently who said it would be ironic if the Flyers won the lottery the year a winger (McKenna) was the first pick, given their needs at center. It’s like 10,000 spoons when all you need is a knife.
Trust rating: 7Pittsburgh Penguins
Prediction: Sidney Crosby plays somewhere in the playoffs this season.The true genius of this prediction resided in its vagueness. Like many others, I heard the speculation that Crosby might end up leaving the Penguins if this was another lost season. That he was tired of missing the most important moment on the NHL calendar and that he wasn’t going to get stuck in a rebuild. I asked Sid about that theory at the NHL Player Media Tour in September. He told me it was nothing he had in mind because he was optimistic that the Penguins, chosen by many to finish last in the division, could return to the playoffs for the first time since 2022. Which, it’s true, seemed delusional. But it was enough for me to cover my bold prediction, declaring that he would play in the playoffs “somewhere”, even in the remote possibility that it was in Pittsburgh. What I didn’t count on was Crosby leading the Penguins to the playoffs himself. In 19 games, the Penguins have a .632 points percentage and Crosby leads them with 23 points. His friend Evgeni Malkin, also subject to trade speculation, led the team with 12 goals. They were never going to leave Pittsburgh if the team was relevant. Through their own efforts, a Jack Adams-level coaching by Dan Muse and the second-best goaltending in the league so far, the Penguins are not only relevant but a team that could make the playoffs. Which would be fine with me, because Pittsburgh is, at the last check, “somewhere”.
Trust rating: 7Washington Capitals
Prediction: Ovechkin breaks another Gretzky record.After breaking Wayne Gretzky’s most famous goal-scoring record last season, Ovechkin has the opportunity to break another one this season. Gretzky scored a combined 1,016 goals between the regular season and the Stanley Cup playoffs. Ovechkin needed 43 goals between the regular season and the postseason to surpass that mark. In 19 games, Ovechkin has six goals. That pace would put him below 30 goals for the season. Even with a long Capitals playoff run, it would be difficult to see him break that mark without a larger goal margin in the regular season. The good news is that when Ovechkin gets hot, his goal-scoring pace can be scorching.
Trust rating: 6Central DivisionChicago Blackhawks
Prediction: Frank Nazar doubles his point total. With Connor Bedard having a star season (13 goals in 19 games) that could earn him a trip to the Olympics, whatever Frank Nazar does for the Blackhawks might go a bit unnoticed. He’s been great, with 13 points in 17 games and playing in all phases of the game. He was out for a while after receiving a cross-check from Joel Farabee earlier this month, but Nazar is back and scoring points again. He scored 26 points in 53 games last season. At his current scoring pace, and assuming he stays in the lineup, Nazar could surpass 60 points. He may not be on Bedard’s line, but he can hang out with him on the power play. That’s good enough for me.Trust rating: 8Colorado Avalanche
Prediction: The Avs win the Western Conference. It’s always a good feeling when you hitch your wagon to a bulldozer. The Avalanche started the season with a 13-1-5 record in their first 19 games. They led the NHL in offense and defense and had their top scorer in points and goals (Nathan MacKinnon), their top scorer among defensemen (Cale Makar), and the fourth-best team save percentage (.909) thanks to a 33-year-old veteran who is possibly having the best season of his professional career (Scott Wedgewood). What’s scary about the Avs is that there’s still a lot of room for improvement in players like Brock Nelson, Gabe Landeskog, and Valeri Nichushkin. The caveat here is that the Avalanche haven’t made it past the second round since winning the Stanley Cup in 2022. But so far, MacKinnon & Co. seem absolutely determined to drink from the cup again next June.Trust rating: 8Dallas Stars
Prediction: Matt Duchene regresses. It feels a bit awkward to qualify this with Duchene on the long-term injured reserve at the moment with an undisclosed ailment. He hasn’t played since October 18th. Duchene had a goal and an assist in four games. My point remains that the departure of Mikael Granlund and Mason Marchment, combined with a dip in his shooting percentage from 19.7%, means Duchene won’t reach that points-per-game pace from last season when he returns to the ice.Trust rating: 8Minnesota Wild
Prediction: Zeev Buium surpasses Brock Faber. In 20 games, Zeev Buium had 10 points compared to Brock Faber’s nine points, so let’s stop the count and call this a win! Okay, to delve a little deeper into this, my prediction here was largely based on Buium getting power play time on the top unit, assuming he wouldn’t produce much at 5-on-5 as a rookie. True to form, seven of his 10 points have come with the man advantage. He’s averaging more ice time per game (3:22) than Faber (1:04) on the power play so far this season, but his role as quarterback of Kirill Kaprizov’s unit isn’t cemented. He hasn’t produced much in his last 10 games entering Wednesday night, and his overall ice time has been fluctuating. I’m concerned but confident.Trust rating: 6Nashville Predators
Prediction: Andrew Brunette keeps his job.General Manager Barry Trotz recently said the Predators are in a “transition phase” as an organization, but wouldn’t go so far as to call it a “rebuild.” Either way, it’s clear things aren’t working under Brunette for a second straight season, which could require his dismissal… … only, what would that accomplish? Brunette signed a four-year contract in 2024. Unless Trotz wants to add “coach” to his job title without a significant raise, wouldn’t it make sense for the organization to let Brunette coach through a lost season rather than pay him not to work? The only scenarios I see in which Brunette doesn’t finish the season are if Trotz felt compelled to save the season himself or if he felt that AHL Milwaukee Admirals coach Karl Taylor is next in line for the bench and wanted to give him a few months of experience this season. Because even if things get worse for Nashville, that’s ultimately good in a “transition phase,” isn’t it?
Trust rating: 7St. Louis Blues
Prediction: Jimmy Snuggerud, Calder Trophy finalist. Snuggerud has been unremarkable through the first 20 games of the season after making a big impression with four points in seven playoff games last season. He has five goals and six assists, skating with a minus-2. He has played with Pavel Buchnevich and Robert Thomas, and has also had power play time. Snuggerud faces two major problems right now as a Calder candidate. The first is that the Blues stink, and therefore his accomplishments won’t get the same attention as that of rookies on contending teams. The second is that Islanders defenseman Matthew Schaefer and Canadiens forward Ivan Demidov have completely dominated the rookie spotlight through the first quarter of the season. Add a quarter of interesting rookies in goal (Yaroslav Askarov (SJS), Jakub Dobes (MTL), Jesper Wallstedt (MIN) and Arturs Silovs (PIT)) and it’s already a crowded field. But Snuggerud still has a path to the Calder if he can pick up the scoring pace. And by that we mean lead all rookie forwards in points.Trust Rating: 6Utah Mammoth
Prediction: The Mammoths make the playoffs.When the Mammoth lost their third consecutive overtime game this week, head coach André Tourigny joked: “We are undefeated in regulation in the last four (games). Let’s put it that way.” To that end, the Mammoth are adding points again after losing five of six games in regulation. That followed seven straight wins. This is what young and very talented teams do, and Utah is not immune to it. They have shown me enough to trust that this season’s total will be a playoff appearance. Their main players are great and their young stars like Logan Cooley are constantly improving. If I have a concern, it’s in goal, where Karel Vejmelka and Vitek Vanecek are playing below replacement levels. But I’m not giving up on them Yeti, eh, yet.
Trust rating: 7
