Texans defy the odds: Playoffs after an 0-3 start? Analysis and keys

Texans: From the initial crisis to playoff hope

The Houston Texans’ locker room was tense after the Week 3 loss against the Jacksonville Jaguars, a result that put them at a worrying 0-3. The season seemed to be fading, with another defeat suffered in the final play, similar to weeks 1 and 2. However, despite the tension, panic did not set in, as the team felt they could easily have a 3-0 record.

We have to find a way to close out games on both sides of the ball.

E.J. Speed, Texans linebacker.

The following week, Houston demonstrated its resilience with a 26-0 victory over the Tennessee Titans. Belief grew, and tight end Dalton Schultz commented that the Week 4 victory was a matter of luck being on their side.

We just needed to see the fruits of the labor.

Dalton Schultz, Texans tight end.

Before Week 4, the Texans had a 14% chance of making the playoffs according to the Football Power Index. However, history was not on their side. Only one team since 1990, the 1992 Seattle Seahawks, had managed to reach the playoffs after starting 0-4. Since the NFL adopted a 14-team playoff format in 2020, none of the 19 teams that started 0-3 made it to the postseason.

Currently, the Texans are at a 5-5 record after Matthew Wright made a game-winning field goal in the last second in Week 11, completing the season sweep against the Titans. Their chances of reaching the playoffs have increased to 26%, and could reach 37% if they win on Thursday night against the Buffalo Bills. A loss would reduce that figure to 15%. Of the 989 teams in the Super Bowl era that started with a 5-5 or worse record after 10 games, only 89 (9%) managed to reach the playoffs.

Houston has won five of its last seven games, and is in the running for the playoffs, with the opportunity to defy the odds. As of Wednesday, the Texans are one game out of the last playoff spot in the AFC, behind the Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4). However, surpassing .500 will present some challenges. The Texans face a short week with the Bills (7-3) in town and will play without quarterback C.J. Stroud for the third consecutive game due to a concussion. Stroud returned to practice on Tuesday in a limited capacity and is expected to return against the Indianapolis Colts (8-2) in Week 13.

That doesn’t matter.

DeMeco Ryans, Texans coach.

The good news for the Texans is that they have achieved a 2-0 record with Davis Mills as quarterback, keeping their hopes alive. They have scored 45 points in their two starts, including a 19-point comeback against the Jaguars in Week 10. The bad news is that the Texans have a 2-5 record against teams with a winning record, and four of their seven remaining opponents are above .500. Houston’s defense has been its salvation, allowing the fewest points per game (16.3) and yards (258.1), the second-fewest completion percentage to quarterbacks (57.6%), and is tied for the third-most interceptions (10).

It’s not about being the best in the league.

Kamari Lassiter, Texans cornerback.

Week 12 features a rematch from last season that lived up to expectations, with Ka’imi Fairbairn kicking a field goal in the last second to give Houston the 23-20 victory.