Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers’ Crossroads
While Aaron Rodgers assured that he was “not holding anyone back”, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ motto in the preseason was clear: they would carry out their moves regardless of the quarterback’s decision.
However, the actions of both did not match their words.
While Rodgers dealt with what he called “difficult things” for his inner circle, he attended a Kentucky Derby party and shared with rapper Mike at some concerts, the Steelers overlooked almost all quarterback options before selecting Will Howard in the sixth round of the draft. They also chose to sign Mason Rudolph as their only real veteran quarterback to join an inexperienced Skylar Thompson in the position.
Although one of coach Mike Tomlin’s principles is that his players be “volunteers, not hostages,” the Steelers practically offered to be hostages to Rodgers by putting all their eggs in his basket. With the draft over, a desolate free agent quarterback market, and few trade options, Rodgers is the Steelers’ last and best hope. And yet, on paper and on the field, Rodgers doesn’t seem to fit the Steelers’ offense or their long-standing organizational philosophies, leading the franchise into an identity crisis.
Tomlin reaffirmed the importance of being a team that prioritizes the running game when he hired offensive coordinator Arthur Smith a year ago, but the Steelers are expected to reach an agreement with Rodgers on Friday, who attempted the second-most passes in the NFL last season.Tomlin also repeatedly emphasized mobility as a coveted trait in a quarterback, but his new passer took 40 sacks and ran 34 times for 94 yards last season.
General Manager Omar Khan orchestrated a trade to acquire wide receiver DK Metcalf, and has now agreed to terms with a quarterback who averaged 6.6 air yards per attempt last season, ranking 32nd out of 36 qualified quarterbacks.
“The way we finished [the season] was unacceptable,” Khan said at the NFL combine. “We know we have to improve, and people expect better. We expect better, and that can’t happen again. And I’m as disappointed as everyone else, and I can tell you we’re working hard to fix that and make sure it doesn’t happen again.”
Omar Khan
The Steelers entered the preseason promising changes after a five-game losing streak to end a regular season that began with a 10-3 record in 14 weeks. And although Rodgers, who is about to be the team’s fifth different starting quarterback in Week 1 in as many years, is a change, it’s not necessarily one in line with their intended offensive identity.
The acquisition of Rodgers marks the second time in as many years that the Steelers are betting on a reclamation project. Like Russell Wilson, 36, before him, Rodgers, 41, was released before the end of his contract by the New York Jets.
This is the hand the Steelers played by not re-signing Justin Fields, their former quarterback who went to the Jets with a modest contract and a fresh start.
The Steelers obtained Rodgers’ much-anticipated “final rose” after the Giants signed Wilson and Minnesota committed to the 2024 first-round pick, J.J. McCarthy, as their starting quarterback. Pittsburgh then got Rodgers after a tedious internal back-and-forth between Rodgers’ desire to keep playing or retire. However, at this point in his career, Rodgers comes with more thorns than petals.
As a four-time NFL MVP, 10-time Pro Bowler, and Super Bowl champion (in a victory over Tomlin’s Steelers), Rodgers is an undeniable future Hall of Famer. But after two decades in the NFL and a torn Achilles tendon that cost him the 2023 season, Rodgers arrives in Pittsburgh as a shadow of the quarterback who won consecutive MVP awards in 2020 and 2021.
Since he last won the NFL’s highest individual honor, Rodgers’ performance has declined drastically. In 2022 and 2024, his last two seasons as a starter, he ranked 26th and 25th in QBR and 21st and 26th in yards per attempt. Beyond being the ringmaster of the off-field New York circus for the better part of two seasons, Rodgers’ on-field performance in his only full season as a starter declined from the gold standard set during his career in Green Bay. Although Rodgers finished the season completing 63% of his attempts for 3,897 yards, 28 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, he recorded a QBR of 48.0. His lowest QBR of his career as a full-season starter was 41.3 in 2022. That year, his last season in Green Bay, he completed 64.6% of attempts for 3,695 yards, 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions as the Packers finished with an 8-9 record.Perhaps the lowest point in a series of highlights of the Rodgers era with the Jets came in the Week 17 loss by 40-14 to the Buffalo Bills, when he recorded the lowest QBR of his career, 1.2, threw two interceptions and was sacked four times to surpass Tom Brady as the most sacked quarterback in NFL history. By the time Rodgers sat on the bench with the Jets losing 40-0 at the start of the fourth quarter, the offense had gone 14 consecutive possessions without a touchdown. The unit finally scored a touchdown, the 500th pass of his career by Rodgers, in the second quarter of an eventual regular season finale victory against the Dolphins in Rodgers’ last game as a Jet.
The Steelers had similar offensive droughts during 2024. They failed to score a touchdown on the opening drive all season. From the start of the Week 11 victory against the Baltimore Ravens (thanks to Chris Boswell’s field goals) until Wilson found receiver Calvin Austin for a 23-yard touchdown late in the fourth quarter against the Cleveland Browns a week later, the Steelers went 20 offensive possessions, seven quarters, without a touchdown.
“We certainly need to score more points,” Tomlin said of the offense in his end-of-season press conference. “Any way that happens, it’s however it happens. It doesn’t necessarily mean construction, but we certainly have to score more points. You’re not going to score 14 points a week in January and have much success.”In a side-by-side comparison, Wilson’s strengths would seem to fit better with the Steelers’ offensive personnel.
Wilson averaged 7.6 yards per attempt in 2024, while Rodgers recorded 6.7. Wilson also outperformed Rodgers when not under pressure, according to ESPN Research. Wilson completed 75% of attempts with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions for a QBR of 71. Rodgers completed 68% of attempts when not under pressure and threw 21 touchdowns to 10 interceptions for a QBR of 55. Rodgers’ 10 interceptions were the most he had without facing pressure since he threw 13 during his first year as a starter in 2008.
And although Rodgers wasn’t ashamed to throw early in his career, he has been notably more conservative since the Achilles tendon rupture. He averaged 2.69 seconds to throw, fifth among qualified quarterbacks, last season, and his average throwing distance of 6.6 yards was the fifth shortest in the league. 2024 marked the only full season as a starter that he averaged a throwing distance of less than 7.4 yards.
Rodgers hasn’t been at the helm of prolific ground offenses either. The Jets ranked 28th in rushing plays last year, and from 2008 to 2022, the Packers ran the ball on 37% of plays, the fourth-lowest rate in the league during that span, according to ESPN Research. Rodgers’ new offensive coordinator, Smith, however, has overseen top-five ground offenses in five of his last six seasons as a play caller.But those are debatable points, because while the Steelers waited for Rodgers’ decision, Wilson took matters into his own hands and scheduled visits with the Browns and Giants. A day after the news of Wilson’s visits broke, the Steelers signed Rudolph, their 2018 third-round pick, who spent the 2024 season in Tennessee, to a two-year, $8 million contract.
Some, like the Steelers, believe Rodgers has more potential than Wilson, or any other option available in a weak quarterback free agent and draft class. The Jets had a better red zone touchdown percentage than the Steelers in 2024: 54.55% versus Pittsburgh’s 48.21%, the fourth-lowest in the NFL.
“He played well, especially towards the end of the season,” said Steelers cornerback Brandin Echols, who played with Rodgers in New York last season. “I wish the outcome was a little better, but towards the end of the season he really started to wake up.”
Brandin Echols
The Steelers’ approach to free agency put the ball in Rodgers’ hands. His best opportunity to avoid a possible offensive identity crisis is to hope he returns it by playing within the structure of his offense.
