The 2024 NFL season turned out to be the year of the impactful free agent. The Eagles won Super Bowl LIX with two key signings: running back Saquon Barkley and linebacker Zack Baun, who played stellar roles. Derrick Henry, for his part, joined the Ravens and seemed to rejuvenate five years overnight. The most impactful success story might have been that of quarterback Sam Darnold, who won almost as many games with the Vikings as in his previous six professional seasons. In each of these cases, the featured player benefited from a change to a better situation. Barkley went from a struggling Giants offense to playing behind Philadelphia’s dominant offensive line. Henry benefited from being in the same backfield as dual-threat passer Lamar Jackson. Baun was repositioned as a linebacker by Eagles coordinator Vic Fangio and coached for an All-Pro campaign. And while Darnold spent 2023 as a backup with the 49ers, the presence of coach Kevin O’Connell and wide receiver Justin Jefferson meant that the 2018 No. 3 pick was in a notably better position than during his time with the Jets or the Panthers.
Many players leave their teams during each offseason, but it’s rare to see the results that Barkley, Baun, and Darnold produced. Is there anyone like them who has changed teams this offseason? Talent is talent, but who benefited the most from moving to a different context in a new organization in recent months?
Let’s analyze 15 players who were traded or signed elsewhere in free agency and discuss how they will fit into their new teams. Who could make the most of changing teams? Are there underlying metrics, archetypes, or something about each player’s past that hints at a standout performance? I’ll start with a new quarterback in New York, work my way through the players on offense before finishing with some defenders:Justin Fields, QB, New York Jets
Signed by the Steelers as an unrestricted free agent.This might not be Fields’ last chance as a starter, but it’s likely his last chance to enter an offseason with a significant guarantee of being a starter somewhere. Traded by Chicago to Pittsburgh for a Day 3 pick last year, he did enough in six starts with the Steelers to generate interest from the Jets, who needed a quarterback. His new contract guarantees him $30 million of the $40 million owed to him over the next two seasons.
The hope for Fields is that the Jets lean into his strengths in the quarterback running game, something the Bears didn’t really do. The Steelers went a bit further, but after averaging just over five designed runs (excluding scrambles and kneels) in his six starts, he was benched for Russell Wilson.While the Steelers went 4-2 with Fields throwing just one interception in 161 pass attempts, the best version of an offense led by Fields has to commit to his ability to create explosive plays. He has been sacked on nearly 12% of his dropbacks as a pro, plays that usually kill offensive drives. His 40.9% success rate as a passer ranks 24th of 25 quarterbacks with at least 1,200 dropbacks over the last four seasons, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. All those negative or neutral plays mean he has to produce big plays to survive as an NFL passer.
Will the Jets’ new offensive coordinator, Tanner Engstrand, build an offense that consistently plays to Fields’ strengths? Engstrand had been with the Lions since 2020, watching closely as coordinator Ben Johnson elevated Detroit’s offense. The Jets used their first-round pick on tackle Armand Membou and made an affordable addition on the interior in former Packers center Josh Myers. There’s a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver here in Garrett Wilson. If it’s ever going to happen for the 26-year-old Fields, now is the time.
Daniel Jones, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Signed by the Vikings as an unrestricted free agent. Jones was cut by the Giants in November and then signed by the Vikings. There was a scenario where he would follow in Darnold’s footsteps and learn from coach Kevin O’Connell. However, unlike Darnold, Jones never saw the field in Minnesota, not playing a single snap in a Vikings uniform. After the season, with J.J. McCarthy set to take over as the long-term starter in Minnesota, Jones negotiated with the Vikings before agreeing to a one-year, $14 million contract with the Colts.Due to the benefits of playing in Minnesota, it’s undeniable that Jones has a clearer path to the field in Indianapolis. While the Vikings clearly prioritized McCarthy in last year’s draft before a meniscus injury ended his season, the Colts hardly seem enthusiastic about the 2023 number 4 pick, Anthony Richardson. He was a backup to Joe Flacco last season after briefly asking to leave a game. And although his average pass traveled more than 2.0 yards in the air more than any other regular starter, his 47.7% completion percentage was the worst in NFL history after adjusting for the era among passers with a minimum of 200 attempts. He started his season with one of the best pure throws you’ll ever see a quarterback make, then routinely missed open receivers for the rest of the season.
Coach Shane Steichen and the Colts hope Jones can connect with some of those wide receivers, but he shouldn’t be considered a ready-made replacement. Richardson has been asked to attack deep in Indy’s offense, but that was never Jones’s specialty in New York. He ran some of the lowest passing yards per attempt of any quarterback in 2½ seasons under coach Brian Daboll. While the Colts have typically dialed up gap schemes and runs between the tackles for Richardson, the Giants used Jones in zone-read schemes and let him run on passing plays.
Jones’ injury issues in New York prevented the Giants from unleashing him as a runner, where he has been effective at times. He has missed a significant amount of time due to knee and neck injuries during his career. The Colts haven’t made a long-term investment in him as the Giants did, which might encourage them to let him loose in the running game. However, given Jones’ habit of taking sacks when not pressured to get the ball out quickly or tuck it and run, it’s difficult to truly protect him from getting hit.
The Colts’ offensive line won’t do Jones any favors either. Unlike his former teammate Barkley, who went from one of the league’s worst offensive lines to the best, Jones will face an uncertain situation in Indianapolis. The Colts lost a couple of starters on the interior in Ryan Kelly and Will Fries, who signed with the Vikings. Kelly had fallen from his peak and Fries missed most of last season with a fractured tibia, but Indianapolis didn’t add any other options besides fourth-round rookie pick Jalen Travis. He’s shaping up as a project and a possible backup tackle behind Braden Smith, who was being treated for severe obsessive-compulsive disorder last season.There are reasons to be optimistic about Jones. He was miscast as a $40 million quarterback in New York, but he can be an accurate passer in rhythm and should be able to handle Steichen’s RPO calls. Running back Jonathan Taylor finished the season strong, racking up 627 rushing yards and six touchdowns in the final four games. And the Colts added tight end Tyler Warren to a receiving group that opens up more often than their numbers suggest. Whether due to injury or substitution, it seems likely that Richardson will give way to Jones at some point this season. Jones will need to stay healthy and consistent to maintain that opportunity.
Mac Jones, QB, San Francisco 49ersSigned by the Jaguars as an unrestricted free agent.If there’s a player explicitly trying to follow Darnold’s rejuvenation path, that’s Jones. Remember that Darnold restarted his career by joining the 49ers in 2023, where he spent the season as Brock Purdy’s backup. Darnold threw only 46 passes in a San Francisco uniform, most of which came in a Week 18 meaningless game against the Rams. However, working with coach Kyle Shanahan seemingly did enough to rebuild Darnold’s confidence before he left for a one-year contract with Minnesota. You know what happened next.
Like Darnold, Jones was once considered a promising young quarterback, only for his game to fall apart amid injuries, porous offensive lines, and questionable coaching. That story was always a bit too simplistic: the Patriots did a great job protecting him in obvious passing situations as a rookie, but any confidence he had quickly fell apart. He spent most of his second season arguing with Matt Patricia and Joe Judge. In the third year, with undrafted rookie DeMario Douglas as his top wide receiver, he was benched for Bailey Zappe. Moving to Jacksonville last season and replacing the injured Trevor Lawrence, Jones looked lost at times. He was extremely sensitive even to the threat of pressure and sometimes missed open receivers from clean pockets. There’s still some anticipation there: he has moments where he looks like an accurate passer, but he didn’t have the kind of consistency needed from a starting NFL quarterback.Now, he can work with Shanahan, who debated whether to draft him over Trey Lance at No. 3 in 2021. Jones’s only successful season as a professional puts him one ahead of the guy the 49ers went with, but I’m not sure either of those moves would be considered a success. Four years later, Shanahan got his man to back up Purdy with a two-year, $8.4 million contract.
This will be the best offensive infrastructure Jones has played in since his time at Alabama. The question is whether he ever sees the field. There has been a need for a reliable backup in San Francisco, even after Purdy’s rise. Purdy suffered a serious elbow injury in the 2022 NFC Championship, left a loss to the Ravens in 2023 with a stinger, and missed two games in 2024 with shoulder and elbow injuries. Jones probably isn’t going to win the job over the $265 million QB, but don’t be surprised if he plays well enough to get a more significant opportunity elsewhere in his next contract in 2026.Najee Harris, RB, Los Angeles ChargersSigned by the Steelers as an unrestricted free agent.A year after two running backs produced legendary seasons by escaping dire situations, Harris hopes to follow in the footsteps of Barkley and Henry. And while the Steelers’ offensive line improved last season, Harris is moving to a better place.
Certainly, there’s a much better quarterback game waiting in Los Angeles than in Pittsburgh, although the Steelers (16th) ranked higher than the Chargers (25th) in expected yards per carry last season, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. The weakest point up front for Jim Harbaugh’s team was at right guard, where former Eagles and Jets lineman Mekhi Becton, who earned a two-year, $20 million contract in free agency, will take over this season.
A scheme change could also benefit Harris. The Steelers leaned toward zone schemes for most of Harris’s time, even though most teams recently prefer gap runs. His best stretch as a pro came at the end of the 2023 season under interim offensive coordinator Eddie Faulkner, who leaned more toward gap concepts. Harris has the size to succeed in those and has more wiggle when he’s head-up against a defender than you might think.
Fantasy football managers were upset to see the Chargers add competition for Harris in the form of first-round pick Omarion Hampton, but that could actually help the 27-year-old become more efficient on each carry. Harris ranks second in the league in carries over the last four seasons, behind only Henry. While Henry has earned a reputation for improving as the game goes on, that hasn’t been the case for Harris; his success rate routinely drops after halftime.The biggest problem with Harris? He hasn’t really been a very good professional runner. He has accumulated significant volume with below-average efficiency, ranking 25th in the NFL in cumulative rushing EPA since entering the league in 2021. He ranks last in success rate among running backs with at least 600 carries in that span.
It’s fair to wonder how much of that is the context of the Steelers’ offense, but the problem is that Jaylen Warren was far more productive in the same attack. Over the last three seasons, Harris averaged less than 0.1 RYOE (yards over expectation) per carry; Warren was 0.4. Warren had a 42.5% success rate; Harris was 36.2%. Despite Harris being the power back of the duo, he generated 12 fewer FDOE (first downs over expectation) than an average running back, according to the Next Gen Stats model; Warren generated four more than an average running back on his carries. Certainly, there is some benefit to being the change-of-pace back, but as we saw with Austin Ekeler and Melvin Gordon on the Chargers or Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott on the Cowboys, there are times when a team sticks too much with a first-round pick at running back and doesn’t let the smaller, more productive back play more. Harris could be more productive than he has been in the past given a better situation, but that could only lead to league-average results as a rotational back.Javonte Williams, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Signed by the Broncos as an unrestricted free agent. In the time since the Cowboys’ decision to give Ezekiel Elliott a big contract extension in 2019 backfired, the team clearly doesn’t want to spend much on the running back position. For all the problems they had in 2024, that strategy actually worked. Rico Dowdle was perfectly reasonable in the lead role, posting above-average efficiencies in terms of yards over expectation, EPA per carry, and success rate. A 1,079-yard season for $1.3 million was a great value for Dallas. The Cowboys let Dowdle go in free agency, even though he only signed a one-year, $2.8 million contract with the Panthers. Instead, Dallas budgeted approximately the same amount, $3 million, to sign Dowdle’s replacement in Williams, who could end up costing a compensatory pick.Why replace Dowdle with a running back who has averaged 3.7 yards per carry and posted the fifth-worst success rate in the league since returning from a multi-ligament knee injury in 2023? The Cowboys would likely argue the move makes sense because of Williams’ skill set. There’s an argument to be made that he’s a more complete back given his work as a receiver and pass blocker. Dallas didn’t necessarily trust Dowdle with pass blocking until the second half of last season, when they named him the full-time starter.
The biggest problem for Dallas on offense last season was in the red zone, where they ranked 31st in conversion rate. I’m not sure Williams will really help there, as he generated minus-7 FDOE over the last two years. Since 2021, the only running back with at least 600 carries who has posted a worse success rate than Williams is Harris. Williams is saying all the right things this offseason about recovering from his injury and being at his best, but he was league average before the ACL tear and hasn’t reached that level since.Only $1 million of Williams’ $3 million is guaranteed, so there’s a small but plausible chance he doesn’t even make the active roster in Week 1. I’d say Williams is likely to get there, but to see him strictly in a rotational role. He’s not likely to reach the heights of Dowdle in workload or production.
George Pickens, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Acquired via a trade from the Steelers The new Williams teammate, on the other hand, has more reason to be optimistic. Pickens is moving from one of the league’s least pass-prone offenses to one of the most. The Cowboys threw at the third-highest rate on neutral game scripts on early downs before Dak Prescott went down with his season-ending hamstring injury in Week 9. The Steelers ranked 25th by the same metric during that span. Dallas also plays at a faster pace than Pittsburgh, something that will likely continue with Brian Schottenheimer taking over as coach. Pickens will also get a big upgrade at quarterback. For any criticism Prescott receives for his weaknesses, he throws one of the most consistently accurate balls of any quarterback. His ball placement on short passes, slants, and back-shoulder throws, in particular, has been excellent in recent years. Pickens will see a lot of those passes. With CeeDee Lamb operating from the slot, the Cowboys have needed an “X” receiver since they moved on from Amari Cooper before the 2022 season. Between Cooper and Dez Bryant, Prescott had that big, physical receiver on the outside for most of his career. Pickens should be that guy. What the Cowboys really need, as I mentioned in Williams’ note, is help in the red zone. Pickens has the frame and catch radius to be an impactful player in tight spaces, but that has never really shown inside the 20-yard line. He had only five touchdowns on 48 targets inside the red zone in his first three NFL seasons. I’d like to see Schottenheimer create individual opportunities for his new wide receiver to take advantage of that 6-foot-3-inch frame.For all the positives of Pickens moving to Dallas, the downside has to be a reduction in target share. He received targets on over 25% of the routes he ran a year ago, which ranked him 25th among all wide receivers. Brandin Cooks, whose role in the lineup nominally goes to Pickens, received targets on just under 19% of his routes in 2024. That might not sound like a huge difference, but over a full season, that gap could amount to 40 additional targets.
It’s clear that Pickens had fallen out of favor with a normally patient Steelers coaching staff, and the track record of highly touted wide receivers outside of Pittsburgh isn’t excellent. Antonio Brown, Santonio Holmes, Mike Wallace, and Chase Claypool failed to live up to their success elsewhere. With Pickens in a contract year, he has every reason to be motivated in Dallas. Few players have a wider range of potential outcomes in 2025: he could be a top-15 wide receiver or end the season on another roster.
Dyami Brown, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Signed by the Commanders as an unrestricted free agent. A 2021 third-round selection who had fallen down Washington’s depth chart, the arrival of Kliff Kingsbury as offensive coordinator last year and the trade of Jahan Dotson helped revitalize Brown’s career. He saw regular snaps throughout the season and was a capable blocker on the outside, but he didn’t begin to accumulate significant production until the postseason. After a career-high 308 receiving yards during the regular season, he had 229 more during the postseason, including games with 89 and 98 receiving yards during the Commanders’ two playoff victories.Did Brown become a different player during that playoff run? I’m not sure I see it on film. Several of his big plays during that stretch came on busted coverages and misdirections. Those yards count, but they’re a product of the scheme rather than Brown making his own way. He had a 24-yard catch-and-run on a screen and a 42-yard reception against the Lions’ backups who failed to pass off a route concept correctly. Brown had a 38-yard gain on a seam route running past rookie cornerback Terrion Arnold from the slot, but that was the exception for his production during the playoff run. He also lost two fumbles, losing a key fumble early against the Eagles in the NFC Championship.
During the regular season, Brown averaged 1.4 yards per route run, ranking him 68th out of 114 wide receivers who ran at least 200 routes. While he saw consistent work, there were few wide receivers who ran routes less frequently when on the field than him. He ran routes on 50.6% of his offensive plays, the sixth-lowest rate for any wide receiver.
On the one hand, limited usage suggests that Brown’s modest regular season numbers were reduced by a
