NFL Week 4: Analysis and Predictions for the 2025 Season
Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season promises exciting matchups. The debut of young quarterback Jaxson Dart against the Chargers, the expected return of Micah Parsons to Dallas, and the clash between the Ravens and the Chiefs are just some of the duels that will capture attention.
In Alofoke Deportes, we provide you with everything you need to know. Our reporters offer you information from the locker rooms, with the best they heard this week. In addition, the Alofoke Deportes research team presents key statistics and relevant data for each match.
Also, analyst Seth Walder makes bold predictions for each game, and fantasy football expert Eric Moody shares crucial information. We have Football Power Index (FPI) matchup quality ratings and game projections, in addition to final score predictions from three analysts: Pamela Maldonado, Moody, and Walder.
Week 4 will culminate with two exciting “Monday Night Football” games: one between the Jets and the Dolphins and another between the Bengals and the Broncos.(Game times are on Sunday, unless otherwise noted.)
To access the matchups, click on the following links:
PIT-MIN
PHI-TB
CLE-DET
LAC-NYG
NO-BUF
WSH-ATL
CAR-NE
TEN-HOU
IND-LAR
JAX-SF
BAL-KC
CHI-LV
GB-DAL
NYJ-MIA
CIN-DEN
Thursday: SEA-ARISteelers (2-1) vs. Vikings (2-1) in Dublin, Ireland
9:30 a.m. ET | NFL Network | Matchup Rating: 48.6/100What’s being heard about the Steelers: Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed the most plays of at least 20 yards by pass or 12 yards by run this season. The Vikings, on the other hand, only have eight plays of 20 or more yards. Pittsburgh could get help in the secondary with the possible return of S DeShon Elliott (knee) and CB Joey Porter Jr. (hamstring), who haven’t played since Week 1. – Brooke PryorWhat’s being heard about the Vikings: The Vikings had the opportunity to sign QB Aaron Rodgers, who ultimately joined the Steelers after the Vikings committed to giving J.J. McCarthy the starting role during the spring and summer. McCarthy will miss his second straight game due to a sprained ankle, and Carson Wentz will be the starter. Sunday’s game will be a test to answer the question Minnesota asked itself in the offseason. – Kevin SeifertKey Statistic: The Vikings have allowed an average of 141.3 passing yards per game, the third-fewest in the league. On the other hand, the Steelers rank 24th in the NFL in passing yards per game (184.0). – Alofoke Deportes ResearchBold Prediction: Vikings LB Andrew Van Ginkel will record a pick-six. Van Ginkel is the king of intercepting horizontal passes and taking them to the end zone, and nobody loves short passes more than Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. It’s a perfect combination for a defensive touchdown. – WalderInjuries: Steelers | VikingsFantasy Tip: Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson had a tough start to the season, but exploded in Week 3 with 15.9 fantasy points. He tied for the team lead in receptions (five) and finished second in targets (six) and yards (49). Despite sharing time with Josh Oliver and Ben Yurosek, Hockenson has played more snaps and routes, making him a fantasy starter, especially with a favorable matchup against a Pittsburgh defense that concedes the second-most points to tight ends. – MoodyBetting Tip: The Steelers have a 20-8-2 ATS (against the spread) record as home underdogs (18-12 in outright wins) under coach Mike Tomlin. – Alofoke Deportes ResearchMaldonado’s Prediction: Vikings 24, Steelers 18Moody’s Prediction: Vikings 24, Steelers 20Walder’s Prediction: Vikings 27, Steelers 19FPI Prediction: MIN, 57.8% (by an average of 3.1 points)Must-read articles about the match:Eagles (3-0) vs. Buccaneers (3-0)
1 p.m. ET | Fox | Matchup Rating: 73.9/100What’s being heard about the Eagles: The Eagles have a 1-3 record in Tampa Bay under coach Nick Sirianni and haven’t performed their best in the Florida heat. They flew in on Friday, a day early, to acclimate to the weather (90 degrees with 68% humidity is expected on Sunday). But not everyone is convinced the approach will pay off. “You don’t practice in the heat for one day and say you’re acclimated or take a pill and say you’re acclimated,” said defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. “The key will be, I mean, it’s a mindset, number one. Number two, we need to keep them from having eight, ten, or twelve-play drives.” – Tim McManus
What’s being heard about the Buccaneers: Bucs coach Todd Bowles was asked about being a “hero” to the people of Philadelphia because he has supported the “tush push.” The Elizabeth, New Jersey native and Temple graduate, who spent a season as an assistant in Philadelphia, joked: “I think the only place I could be a hero is at Ishkabibble’s on South Street, eating a cheesesteak. Other than that… It’s a good play, it’s a creative play for them, and we have to get better as defensive coaches trying to be creative to stop it.” – Jenna Laine
Key statistic: Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has a career record of 1-4 against the Buccaneers (including playoffs), his most losses against any team. – Alofoke Deportes ResearchBold prediction: Philadelphia will record a positive pass rate over expected (according to NFL Next Gen Stats) for the first time this season. Tampa Bay ranks first in EPA allowed per opponent designed run, so the Eagles will have to rely on Hurts’ passing, perhaps even more than last week. The good news for the Eagles: they can win that way too. – WalderInjuries: Eagles | BuccaneersEmeka Egbuka takes over the Buccaneers’ number 1 WR position with Mike Evans out for several weeks (hamstring). He has accumulated 21 targets and 51 fantasy points in three games and will be busy against the Eagles’ secondary.Fantasy Tip: Emeka Egbuka steps into the WR number 1 role for the Buccaneers with Mike Evans sidelined for several weeks (hamstring). He has accumulated 21 targets and 51 fantasy points in three games and will be busy against the Eagles’ secondary. – MoodyBetting Tip: The Buccaneers have a 15-6 ATS record as underdogs (10-11 in outright wins) since acquiring QB Baker Mayfield in 2023, the best record in the NFL in that period. – Alofoke Deportes ResearchMaldonado’s Prediction: Eagles 34, Buccaneers 27Moody’s Prediction: Eagles 24, Buccaneers 23Walder’s Prediction: Eagles 24, Buccaneers 17FPI Prediction: PHI, 54.6% (by an average of 1.8 points)Must-read readings of the confrontation:Browns (1-2) vs. Lions (2-1)
1 p.m. ET | Fox | Matchup Rating: 57.5/100What’s being heard about the Browns: Cleveland’s defense has reason to be considered the best in the league, allowing the fewest yards per game in the NFL (204.3). However, the Lions’ offense, which ranks second in scoring and first in EPA per play, will be Cleveland’s biggest test to date. The Browns will be alert to everything, from Detroit’s use of motion and trick plays to their aggressiveness on fourth down. “Runs, play action, screens, they’re probably the NFL leaders when it comes to combining the three things on first and second down,” said defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. “We’ll have to take away what they do best. Every play will be a battle.” – Daniel OyefusiWhat’s being heard about the Lions: After their first win in Baltimore as an organization, the Lions are looking to avoid a “trap game” against the Browns. Detroit has 11 touchdowns in the red zone this season, the most in the league, while their defense sacked Ravens QB Lamar Jackson seven times. The Lions hope to continue that performance on Sunday. “I can understand that emotions are high… but, ultimately, every game in the NFL requires a certain amount of focus and a certain amount of drive and willingness,” said defensive end Aidan Hutchinson. “And it’s like if you don’t show up, you’re going to get your butt kicked, and we all know that.” – Eric WoodyardKey statistic: Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has 450 receptions in 69 games since entering the league in 2021 (the most in the NFL in that span). Since the AFL/NFL merger in 1970, only two players have more receptions in their first 70 career games: Michael Thomas with 510 (2016-20) and Justin Jefferson with 451 (2020-24). – Alofoke Deportes researchBold Prediction: The Browns will hold Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery under 4.0 yards per carry. Cleveland’s defense ranks first in yards allowed per rush (2.3) and in run stop win rate (38%). – WalderInjuries: Browns | LionsFantasy Tip: The Browns’ defensive line is not to be taken lightly and currently leads the league in run stop win rate. The Lions had a lot of success running the ball in Week 3 with Gibbs and Montgomery. However, Detroit would do well to lean on QB Jared Goff, St. Brown and the passing game against the Browns. – MoodyBetting Tip: The Lions have a 12-4 ATS record in September under coach Dan Campbell. – Research by Alofoke DeportesMaldonado’s Prediction: Lions 38, Browns 7Moody’s Prediction: Lions 30, Browns 16Walder’s Prediction: Lions 24, Browns 13FPI Prediction: DET, 78.1% (by an average of 12.0 points)Must-read articles about the confrontation:Chargers (3-0) vs. Giants (0-3)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Matchup Rating: 51.6/100What’s being heard about the Chargers: Chargers LB Daiyan Henley said the defense is taking Sunday’s matchup against rookie QB Jaxson Dart as a “challenge.” “This is going to be a guy who’s trying to prove something. And so, for us, we also have to prove how difficult it is to go against a defense,” Henley said. “So, for us, he’s going to get the best of us, and I’m sure we’re going to get the best of him.” The Chargers currently allow the ninth-fewest passing yards per game defensively (182.0). – Kris RhimWhat’s being heard about the Giants: The Giants made the QB change from Russell Wilson to Dart this week, despite facing a tough Chargers defense. But the hope is that the rookie will add some new elements to the offense and finally get the team into the win column. “I think the most important thing for me is that I want to do the best I can to be a spark,” Dart said. “I want to create excitement on the field. I want to be explosive when there are opportunities. Try to bring a little bit of style.” – Jordan RaananKey statistic: Quarterbacks making their first start against the Chargers are 3-17 in the Super Bowl era (since 1967), but 2-2 in those games since 2019. – Research by Alofoke DeportesBold Prediction: Donte Jackson, Chargers CB, will record an interception. Jackson has the fewest yards allowed per coverage snap (0.2) among all outside cornerbacks with at least 75 coverage snaps this season, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, and he’s doing it without a low target rate (13%). Facing Dart in his debut, the chances of an interception are higher. – WalderInjuries: Chargers | GiantsOmarion Hampton is poised to receive a lot of touches in the backfield, as Najee Harris is out for the season after suffering an Achilles tendon injury in Week 3.
Fantasy Tip: Omarion Hampton is poised to receive a lot of touches in the backfield, as Najee Harris is out for the season after suffering an Achilles tendon injury in Week 3. Hampton finished with 25 touches and 24.9 fantasy points last week and could replicate that production against a Giants defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. – Moody
Betting Tip: The Giants have a 3-11 ATS record in their last 14 games as underdogs. – Alofoke Deportes researchMaldonado’s Prediction: Chargers 30, Giants 17Moody’s Prediction: Chargers 33, Giants 23Walder’s Prediction: Chargers 27, Giants 20FPI Prediction: LAC, 76.0% (by an average of 10.6 points)Must-read readings of the confrontation:Saints (0-3) vs. Bills (3-0)
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Matchup Rating: 50.7/100What’s being heard about the Saints: Saints coach Kellen Moore expressed his confidence in starting QB Spencer Rattler after the loss to the Seahawks. Moore indicated that the Saints would not follow the Giants’ example and change quarterbacks soon, and said that Rattler realizes the confidence the team has in him. He believes Rattler, who has a 0-9 record as a starter since last season, is heading in the right direction. “It’s frustrating because Spencer hasn’t been able to get a win in this league, and he’s earned it and deserves it. He’s done a lot of good things,” Moore said. – Katherine TerrellWhat’s being heard about the Bills: Despite having the largest point differential of the season, according to ESPN BET, the Bills’ emphasis is that they are treating Sunday’s game like any other. QB Josh Allen said he expects the Saints to “have their ears pinned back. They want to win as much as anyone in the league right now. And again, there are no easy games in this league.” The Bills are on a 13-game home winning streak in the regular season, but could be without three starters (DT Ed Oliver, LB Matt Milano and RT Spencer Brown) due to injuries. – Alaina GetzenbergKey statistic: The Bills have played eight consecutive games without turnovers (including playoffs), tying the 2024 Chiefs for the longest streak without turnovers since 1933. – Alofoke Deportes ResearchBold Prediction: Saints LB Demario Davis will lead the NFL in combined tackles in Week 4. The Bills will build such a big lead that they will run the ball a lot. And Davis ranks second among linebackers in tackling rate against run plays, earning a tackle or assist on 29% of the opponent’s runs. – Walder
Injuries: Saints | Bills
Fantasy Tip: The Bills are big home favorites against the Saints, which is a good sign for RB James Cook. He has had over 18 touches and over 20 fantasy points in three straight games. Buffalo’s offensive line, league leader in run block win rate (76.6%), should dominate a Saints front line that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs. In deeper formats, don’t overlook his RB teammate Ty Johnson as a potential sleeper. – Moody
