NFL Week 11 Analysis: Predictions, Surprises, and Key Plays
Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season is underway, following the Patriots’ victory over the Jets on Thursday night. Our NFL analysts offer you the latest information to get you ready for the rest of the action. First, data analyst Seth Walder examines three key statistical trends for this weekend. Then, fantasy expert Eric Moody analyzes five players available in less than 50% of leagues who could be a good option. In addition, NFL analyst Ben Solak presents three potential surprises, while Matt Bowen, also an NFL analyst, highlights the key matchup to watch. Finally, sports betting analyst Pamela Maldonado shares her favorite bet for Week 11. Also, our NFL reporters answer questions about interesting situations with quarterbacks in the league. How can the Rams stop the Seahawks’ offense? Which two Buccaneers players have fantasy potential this week? Could Caleb Williams, the Bears’ quarterback, dominate in Minnesota? Will the Raiders’ offense be silent against the Cowboys on “Monday Night Football”? And what is the latest information on whether Aaron Rodgers, the Steelers’ quarterback, will play next season? Let’s delve into all of this, starting with an exciting NFC West showdown.- Statistical Trends
- Surprise Fantasy Players
- Possible Surprises
- Key Matchup
- Bet of the Week
- Quarterback Questions
Key Statistical Trends for Week 11
Walder: Three key statistical trends that could determine the Week 11 winnersHow will the Rams respond to the Seahawks’ heavy offensive formations?The Seahawks arrive in Week 11 with the second most efficient passing offense in terms of EPA per play (0.25), and one of the ways they succeed is by working from formations with more personnel. This forces opponents to match with a base defense before Seattle passes the ball. But the truth is that the Seahawks pass so much because they are not really a good running team (minus 0.06 EPA per play, 25th place). The Rams could simply challenge them to run. When the Seahawks have deployed 12 or 21 personnel this season, opponents have matched with a base defense 81% of the time, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. But when the Rams defense has faced 12 or 21 personnel, it has used base only 55% of the time, and has even used dime 21% of the time. That’s one of the reasons why the Rams have a pass rate above expected of less than 5% against them, the third most run-focused division for any defense. The Seahawks might be forced to make a difficult decision: run the ball against those run-friendly formations (not ideal, given their weakness in that area) or pass against a more difficult passing personnel (which could also reduce efficiency).Can the Bengals stop the Steelers’ attack that focuses on yards after the reception (YAC)?The sixty-five percent of the Steelers’ passing yards this season have been after the reception, the highest percentage in the league. For the Steelers’ focus on YAC, which gets those extra yards from players like DK Metcalf, running backs, and tight ends, the Bengals could be their easiest opponent this season. This is because the Bengals are allowing 1.7 YAC above expected per reception, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Things could get ugly for Cincinnati in Pittsburgh.Can Texans’ Will Anderson Jr. climb in the Defensive Player of the Year race with a big game against the Titans?
I think so! Anderson has been quite exceptional this season, with a pass rush win rate of 25% that puts him in second place. But his seven sacks put him four behind Myles Garrett of the Browns and Brian Burns of the Giants, the league leaders with 11.I’m not saying it can make up for the whole difference in a single game, but accumulating two or three sacks on Sunday is reasonable. This is because the Titans’ rookie quarterback, Cam Ward, has a sack rate of 11.1%, the highest in the league. Combine one of the league’s best pass rushers with a quarterback prone to sacks, and the numbers could be huge.
Surprise Players for Your Fantasy Team
Moody: Five surprise players you need to sign and that you can line up this week
Tre Tucker, WR, Las Vegas Raiders (43.3% rostered)
Tucker has an elite matchup against a Cowboys secondary that has been devastated all season. Dallas has allowed the second-most fantasy points and the most touchdowns per game to wide receivers. Tucker is now the Raiders’ number 1 receiver after Jakobi Meyers was traded to the Jaguars. The Las Vegas passing offense will focus on tight end Brock Bowers, but Tucker should see a lot of passes.Cade Otton, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (42.3% rostered)
Otton is an excellent option this week despite facing a Bills defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Tampa Bay’s receiving group has been decimated by injuries, pushing Otton into a more prominent role with 26 targets in his last three games. He has also recorded at least four receptions and 50 receiving yards in four of his last five outings. Otton could be the primary playmaker for Baker Mayfield against Buffalo.Aaron Rodgers, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (39.9% rostered)
Rodgers is a viable starter because the matchup does all the heavy lifting. Cincinnati has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Rodgers hasn’t been sharp lately, scoring only 18.5 total fantasy points in his last two games with a measly 5.5 yards per attempt. However, the Bengals’ defense has allowed the fourth-most yards per attempt and the most passing touchdowns this season. Rodgers is well-positioned for a bounce-back game.Joe Flacco, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (38.4% rostered)
Flacco has had a career resurgence since arriving in Cincinnati, averaging 24.9 fantasy points per game in four starts. He has thrown at least two touchdown passes in each Bengals appearance and has attempted at least 45 passes in three of four games. This week, he faces a Steelers defense that is allowing the most passing yards per game in the NFL (269.4). And, of course, Flacco is well-positioned for success with wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins as his primary targets.
Tez Johnson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (35.1% rostered)
Johnson is a good starter thanks to his target volume, touchdown production, and matchup. He has seen 20 targets and scored three touchdowns in his last three games. The Bills’ defense has been devastated over the last month, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.Possible Surprises of the Week
Solak: Don’t be surprised if…
Brock Purdy, 49ers quarterback, loses in his return
It’s not that Mac Jones is better than Purdy, who is preparing to return from a right big toe injury, but rather that the 49ers’ defense is much worse than it used to be. Since Week 7, when linebacker Fred Warner was injured for the season with an ankle injury three weeks after defensive end Nick Bosa tore his ACL, the 49ers’ defense ranks 30th in success rate, 28th in points per drive, and 27th in EPA per drive. The Cardinals’ loss to the Seahawks was traumatic, but they should still be able to move the ball against San Francisco even without wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (appendicitis).The Seahawks dominate the Rams, or vice versa
Both teams with a 7-2 record could be 9-0 (revisit those losses, all close, and in some cases very silly). But the Rams haven’t played against a defense of Seattle’s quality since Week 1 (only 14 points scored against the Texans), and the Seahawks’ offense hasn’t been forced to play from behind much. Both teams are excellent and should offer a great game. But there are holes for each that could be exposed early and often by their elite opponent.Bears quarterback Caleb Williams explodes
The Bears nearly missed several potential big plays last week against the Giants in snowy Chicago. Now, Chicago takes its offense, which leads the league in explosive plays, to the dome in Minnesota, where the Vikings are allowing the highest passing percentage in the league on throws of more than 20 yards long. Williams has been on the verge of a true breakout performance for weeks, and a divisional win against a defensive coordinator like Brian Flores would be the ideal spot.Key Confrontation to Follow
Bowen: Key confrontation to follow
Jared Goff, Lions quarterback, against Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio
The Eagles played a lot of zone against Jordan Love, the Green Bay quarterback, in their Monday night victory, playing zone coverage on 69.2% of the dropbacks. In addition, the Eagles were in two-high coverage 66.7% of the time. Will we see the same against Goff and the Lions’ passing game on Sunday night? Potentially, as Fangio can use his safety to cut or steal on routes that break inside. And that’s key when facing Goff, who has a 78.6% completion percentage on throws inside the numbers. The Eagles need answers to take away the crosses, overs, and dig routes that Goff will throw to wide receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, among others.
This Week’s Favorite Bet
Maldonado: My Favorite Bet for Week 11
Under 23.5 points for the Las Vegas Raiders team total against the Dallas CowboysLas Vegas hasn’t won with such a high total. The Raiders’ offense is on its last legs with a broken line, an injured Geno Smith, a scoring total among the bottom three, a passing attack that collapses under pressure, and a running game that creates only 0.66 yards before contact. The Cowboys add volatility with their defensive play, but their front can still generate pressure against the Raiders’ crippled offensive line. Nothing about the Raiders’ structure suggests efficiency, explosiveness, or sustained drives. To reach 24 points, they would need an outlier, and this offense has rarely produced those.Questions about Quarterbacks in the NFL
How is Matthew Stafford having his best season at 37 years old? What else could be unlocked with this Rams offense?The Rams’ offense, especially Stafford, has been healthy. Despite missing most of training camp with a back injury, Stafford hasn’t missed a practice this season. And while the offensive line and wide receiver Puka Nacua have dealt with some injuries, it’s nothing compared to the time Nacua or the offensive linemen missed last season. Stafford, who is in his 17th season, has been sacked only 14 times this year. Regarding the Rams’ offense as a whole, coach Sean McVay said this offseason that the Rams couldn’t use injuries as an excuse for inconsistency and that he wanted to build a more versatile offense. After years of primarily relying on 11 personnel (three receivers) under McVay, Los Angeles currently leads the league in 13 personnel (three tight ends). — Sarah Barshop, Rams reporterHow is the situation of Aaron Rodgers playing another season in Pittsburgh (or anywhere)?Responding to a question about how to break more records after beating the Vikings earlier this season, Rodgers said he is in the “twilight of my career”. “I used to say five, six, seven years ago that I was in the back,” Rodgers said. “I’m on the tee at 18 right now.” Before Sunday’s loss to the Chargers, Rodgers had played consistent and solid football. While the Steelers’ passing attack lacked consistent deep passes, Rodgers was effective with short, quick passes and extended plays with more mobility than he has had in recent years. Against the Chargers, however, Rodgers looked his age, nearing 42, making it seem even less realistic that he could extend his stay in Pittsburgh. Rodgers signed a one-year contract with the Steelers in the offseason, and the team is operating as if a one-year contract means he will be in Pittsburgh for only one season. The Steelers declined to make any move to relinquish significant draft capital for a wide receiver at the trade deadline, in part because the future of the quarterback position is uncertain. And by keeping most of their draft capital, the Steelers are better equipped to maneuver in the next draft (which will be held in Pittsburgh) for a quarterback. — Brooke Pryor, Steelers reporterHow has Joe Burrow looked since he returned to practice this week… and is it realistic to believe he will return for Thanksgiving?
It’s difficult to measure as Burrow was limited in his first week back. Cincinnati wants to make sure they facilitate Burrow’s return to team activity at the start of his 21-day window. Their main focus at this stage of the process is to make sure he can run and cut without any problems. Until then, Joe Flacco will remain the starter. But don’t minimize Burrow’s tenacity to return. “The way he approaches the game drives him crazy,” said Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase. “How much he loves the game drives him crazy. That’s the amount of passion he has behind it, and there’s nothing wrong with that. He just wants to win and you need people around you like that.” — Ben Baby, Bengals reporterHow concerned are the Packers about Jordan Love’s performance in the last two weeks?That operates under the premise that they are concerned at all, and coach Matt LaFleur sounds the opposite of concerned. Until the last two games, Love had some of the best numbers in the league. In seven games, he had completed 70.9% of his passes with 13 touchdown passes and only two interceptions. In the last two games, low-scoring defeats against the Panthers (16-13) and the Eagles (10-7), Love’s completion rate was 63% with no touchdowns and one interception. “I know we’ve had a tough stretch with regards to the scoring over the last couple of weeks, but I think he’s done an outstanding job,” LaFleur said. “We’ve got to make sure he stays confident. I think that’s paramount for every player, and I think he is confident and we’re just waiting for the opportunity again, to have a great week of practice, put that preparation in and then, ultimately, we’ve got to do it on game day.” — Rob Demovsky, Packers reporter
