Detailed Analysis of NFL Week 11 of 2025
Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season is underway, following the Patriots’ victory over the Jets on Thursday night. Our NFL analysts offer you the key information to prepare for the rest of the day. First, Seth Walder, statistics analyst, presents three key trends that could be decisive this weekend. Then, Eric Moody, fantasy expert, highlights five players with less than 50% presence in ESPN leagues, who could be interesting options. Afterwards, Ben Solak, NFL analyst, points out three possible surprises, while Matt Bowen, also an NFL analyst, analyzes the key matchup to follow. Finally, Pamela Maldonado, sports betting analyst, shares her favorite bet for Week 11. Also, our NFL correspondents answer questions about interesting situations with quarterbacks in the league.Key Topics:
- Statistical Trends
- “Sleeper” Fantasy Players
- Potential Surprises
- Key Matchup
- Bet of the Week
- Quarterback Analysis
Key Statistical Trends
Seth Walder’s Analysis:
How will the Rams respond to the Seahawks’ heavy offensive formations?The Seahawks arrive in Week 11 with the second-most efficient passing offense in terms of EPA per play (0.25). One of their strategies is to use formations with heavier personnel, which forces opponents to match with a base defense before Seattle passes the ball. However, the Seahawks are not a particularly good team running the ball (-0.06 EPA per play, 25th best). The Rams could simply dare them to run.When the Seahawks have used 12 or 21 personnel this season, opponents have matched with a base defense 81% of the time. But when the Rams defense has faced 12 or 21 personnel, it has used base only 55% of the time, and has even used dime 21% of the time. This is one of the reasons why the Rams have a pass rate below expectation of -5% against them, the third most run-focused division for any defense.
The Seahawks could be forced to make a difficult decision: run the ball against those run-favorable formations (not ideal, given their weakness in that area) or pass against personnel more difficult to pass against (which could also reduce efficiency).Can the Bengals stop the Steelers’ YAC attack?
Sixty-five percent of the Steelers’ passing yards this season have been after the catch, the highest percentage in the league. For Pittsburgh’s YAC approach, which gets those extra yards from players like DK Metcalf, running backs, and tight ends, the Bengals could be their easiest opponent this season. This is because the Bengals are allowing 1.7 YAC above expected per reception, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Things could get ugly for Cincinnati in Pittsburgh.
Will Anderson Jr. of the Texans to excel in the Defensive Player of the Year race against the Titans?
Anderson has had an exceptional season, with a pass-win rate of 25%, the second-best among defensive players. However, with seven sacks, he is four behind Myles Garrett of the Browns and Brian Burns of the Giants, the league leaders with 11. Although he is not expected to close the gap in a single game, adding two or three sacks on Sunday is realistic. This is because the Titans’ rookie quarterback, Cam Ward, has a sack rate of 11.1%, the highest in the league. Combining one of the league’s best pass rushers with a quarterback prone to sacks could generate big numbers.“Sleepers” for Fantasy Football
Eric Moody’s Analysis:
Tre Tucker, WR, Las Vegas Raiders (43.3% rostered)
Tucker has a favorable matchup against the Cowboys’ secondary, which has been vulnerable this season. Dallas has allowed the most fantasy points and touchdowns per game to receivers. Tucker is now the Raiders’ number 1 wide receiver after Jakobi Meyers was traded to the Jaguars. Although the Las Vegas passing offense will focus on tight end Brock Bowers, Tucker should have plenty of opportunities.
Cade Otton, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (42.3% on rosters)
Otton is an excellent option this week despite facing a Bills defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Tampa Bay’s receiving corps has been decimated by injuries, leading Otton to a more prominent role with 26 targets in his last three games. He has also recorded at least four receptions and 50 yards in four of his last five games. Otton could be the primary offensive player for Baker Mayfield against Buffalo.Aaron Rodgers, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (39.9% rostered)
Rodgers is a viable starter because the matchup does all the heavy lifting. Cincinnati has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Rodgers hasn’t been accurate lately, scoring only 18.5 total fantasy points in his last two games with an average of 5.5 yards per attempt. However, the Bengals’ defense has allowed the fourth-most yards per attempt and the most passing touchdowns this season. Rodgers is well-positioned for a bounce-back game.Joe Flacco, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (38.4% on rosters)
Flacco has had a career resurgence since arriving in Cincinnati, averaging 24.9 fantasy points per game in four starts. He has thrown at least two touchdown passes in each appearance with the Bengals and has attempted at least 45 passes in three of four games. This week, he faces a Steelers defense that is allowing the most yards per game in the NFL (269.4). And, of course, Flacco is well-positioned for success with receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins as his main targets.Tez Johnson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (35.1% on rosters)
Johnson is a good option thanks to his target volume, touchdown production, and matchup. He has received 20 targets and scored three touchdowns in his last three games. The Bills’ defense has been outperformed in the last month, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to receivers.Possible Surprises
Ben Solak’s Analysis:
49ers’ Brock Purdy could lose on his return
It’s not that quarterback Mac Jones is better than Purdy, who is preparing to return from a right big toe injury, but rather that the 49ers’ defense is much worse than it used to be. Since Week 7, when linebacker Fred Warner was injured for the season with an ankle injury, three weeks after edge rusher Nick Bosa suffered a torn ACL, the 49ers’ defense ranks 30th in success rate, 28th in points per drive, and 27th in EPA per drive. The Cardinals’ loss to the Seahawks was traumatic, but they should still be able to move the ball against San Francisco, even without wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (appendicitis).The Seahawks dominate the Rams, or vice versa
Both teams with a 7-2 record could be 9-0 (review those losses, all close and, in some cases, very silly). But the Rams haven’t played against a defense of Seattle’s quality since Week 1 (only 14 points scored against the Texans), and the Seahawks’ offense hasn’t been forced to play from behind much. Both teams are excellent and should offer a great game. But there are holes for each that could be exposed early and often by their elite opponent.
Bears’ Caleb Williams Explodes
The Bears nearly missed several key plays last week against the Giants in a snowy Chicago. Now, Chicago takes its offense, which leads the league in explosive plays, to the dome in Minnesota, where the Vikings are allowing the highest passing percentage in the league on throws of more than 20 yards. Williams has been on the verge of a true breakout performance for weeks, and a divisional win against a defensive coordinator like Brian Flores would be the ideal place.Key Confrontation
Matt Bowen’s Analysis:
Lions’ Jared Goff vs. Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio
The Eagles played a lot of zone against Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love in their Monday night victory, playing zone coverage on 69.2% of pass plays. In addition, the Eagles were in two-high coverage on 66.7% of the time. Will we see the same against Goff and the Lions’ passing game on Sunday night? Potentially, as Fangio can use his boundary safety to cut or steal on routes that break inside. And that’s key when facing Goff, who has a completion rate of 78.6% on throws inside the numbers. The Eagles need answers to take away the crosses, overs, and dig routes that Goff will throw to receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, among others.Bet of the Week
Pamela Maldonado’s Analysis:
UNDER 23.5 points for the Las Vegas Raiders team total against the Dallas CowboysLas Vegas hasn’t earned such a high total. The Raiders’ offense is on its last legs with a broken line, an injured Geno Smith, a scoring total among the bottom three, a passing attack that collapses under pressure, and a running game that creates only 0.66 yards before contact. The Cowboys add volatility with their defensive play, but their front can still generate pressure against the Raiders’ weakened offensive line. Nothing in the Raiders’ structure suggests efficiency, explosiveness, or sustained drives. To reach 24 points, they would need an outlier, and this offense has rarely produced them.Questions about Quarterbacks
NFL Correspondents’ Analysis:
How is Matthew Stafford having his best season at 37 years old? What else could be unlocked with this Rams offense?
The Rams’ offense, especially Stafford, has been healthy. Despite missing most of training camp with a back injury, Stafford hasn’t missed a practice this season. And while the offensive line and receiver Puka Nacua have dealt with some injuries, it’s nothing compared to the time Nacua or the offensive linemen missed last season. Stafford, who is in his 17th season, has only been sacked 14 times this year. Regarding the Rams’ offense in general, coach Sean McVay said this offseason that the Rams couldn’t use injuries as an excuse for inconsistency and that he wanted to build a more versatile offense. After years of primarily relying on 11 personnel (three receivers) under McVay, Los Angeles currently leads the league in 13 personnel (three tight ends).What is the current situation of Aaron Rodgers playing another season in Pittsburgh (or anywhere)?When answering a question about how to break more records after defeating the Vikings earlier this season, Rodgers said he is in the “twilight of his career”. “I used to say five, six, seven years ago that I was in the back,” Rodgers said. “I’m on the tee off on the 18th right now.” Before Sunday’s loss to the Chargers, Rodgers had played consistent and solid football. While the Steelers’ passing attack lacked consistent deep passes, Rodgers was effective with short, quick passes and extended plays with more mobility than he has had in recent years. Against the Chargers, however, Rodgers looked his nearly 42 years old, making it seem even less realistic that he could extend his stay in Pittsburgh. Rodgers signed a one-year contract with the Steelers in the offseason, and the team is operating as if a one-year contract means he will be in Pittsburgh for only one season. The Steelers refused to make any move to relinquish significant draft capital for a wide receiver at the trade deadline, in part because the future of the quarterback position is uncertain. And by keeping most of their draft capital, the Steelers are better equipped to maneuver in the next draft (which will be held in Pittsburgh) for a quarterback.How has Joe Burrow looked since he returned to practice this week… and is it realistic to believe he will return for Thanksgiving?
It’s difficult to assess as Burrow was limited in his first week back. Cincinnati wants to ensure they facilitate Burrow’s return to team activity at the start of his 21-day window. Their biggest focus at this stage of the process is making sure he can run and cut without any issues. Until then, Joe Flacco will remain the starter. But don’t minimize Burrow’s tenacity to return. “The way he approaches the game drives him crazy,” said Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase. “How much he loves the game drives him crazy. That’s the passion he has behind it, and there’s nothing wrong with that. He just wants to win and you need people like that around you.”How concerned are the Packers about Jordan Love’s performance in the last two weeks?
That operates under the premise that they’re concerned at all, and coach Matt LaFleur sounds the opposite of concerned. Until the last two games, Love had some of the best numbers in the league. In seven games, he had completed 70.9% of his passes with 13 touchdown passes and only two interceptions. In the last two games, low-scoring losses to the Panthers (16-13) and the Eagles (10-7), Love’s completion rate was 63% with no touchdowns and one interception. “I know we’ve had a tough stretch as far as scoring the last couple of weeks, but I think he’s done an outstanding job,” LaFleur said. “We’ve got to make sure he stays confident. I think that’s paramount for every player, and I think he is confident and we’re looking forward to the opportunity to, again, have a great week of practice, putting that preparation in and then, ultimately, we’ve got to get it done on game day.”
