NFL: Week 1 QB Debuts, Rodgers and Fields Stand Out. Analysis and Giants

NFL Week 1 Analysis: New Beginnings and Key Trends

We kick off Week 1 of the NFL season! After a long wait, we’re back with our weekly analysis, and we couldn’t be more excited. The first weeks of the season are unique, full of expectations and surprises. Each game is a new opportunity to discover the potential of teams and players. If Week 1 were an indicator of destiny, the Jets and Steelers would be two of the most potent offenses (something we doubt), and the game between Bills and Ravens would be the best of the season (this last one, probably yes). In this space, we will analyze the highlights of the NFL week, examining the most important stories and what we can expect next. We will explore key trends and highlight important players. There will be analysis, statistics, and, of course, a lot of excitement. This week, we’ll evaluate the standout performances of quarterbacks who debuted with new teams, analyze the Giants’ quarterback situation, and examine some interesting trends in Sunday’s passing games. Let’s get started!

Highlights: Quarterbacks Debut in New Teams

Each week, this analysis will begin with a look at a key game, player, or trend from the previous week. What does this mean for the rest of the season? This week, we rank five of the most intriguing quarterback debuts with their new teams.

• Geno Smith, Raiders
• Aaron Rodgers, Steelers
• Justin Fields, Jets
• Daniel Jones, Colts
• Cam Ward, Titans

Geno Smith, Raiders: A Promising Combination

The association between Geno Smith and Chip Kelly promises to be a must-see spectacle. Against the Patriots, the Raiders led the NFL in explosive pass percentage (26.3%), were second in air yards per attempt (10.3) and second in “play-action” play percentage (34.2%), all this despite being blitzed on 47.4% of the occasions. Smith completed 24 of 34 passes for a total of 362 yards. In summary: the Raiders looked for big plays and executed them successfully. Smith has always been a courageous leader, and Kelly took advantage of this, creating isolation opportunities with deep routes. Smith is one of the best quarterbacks at throwing the ball to routes that break deep downfield. He connected with Jakobi Meyers on a deep pass and with Tre Tucker on an excellent out route. In addition, Smith has the speed and ability to throw passes on “run-pass option” plays in the intermediate levels of the field, something that works very well in Kelly’s “play-action” approach. Smith’s willingness to withstand pressure and continue to seek deep passes sometimes caused him problems in the past, and it could happen again in Las Vegas. He took four sacks and threw an interception on those deep pass attempts. Although the Patriots had to add more players to blitz, future teams won’t be as willing to create space on the field. In Week 2, the Raiders will face a completely different defense, that of the Chargers and their defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, who rarely blitzes and prefers deep zones. Smith converts his completed passes under pressure and blitz into big plays of 20+ yards, giving his offense the ability to have quick scoring drives. The Raiders’ running game was worryingly poor, but a 38-yard catch and run by Brock Bowers set up a field goal in the third quarter, and Tucker’s aforementioned out route for 28 yards set up a field goal in the final quarter. Explosive plays are key in the NFL, and Smith has the mindset to generate them. Kelly did a great job designing plays to get receivers open as the Patriots focused more on coverage. It will be interesting to see how this develops in Week 2 against a different defense, and the Las Vegas offensive line could be a limiting factor. However, on Smith’s part, the Raiders paid a third-round pick and a $37.5 million-per-year contract for a solid veteran starting quarterback; in his first start, he easily exceeded that expectation. We can’t promise the Raiders will be good, but you’ll definitely want to watch them on TV.

Aaron Rodgers, Steelers: A Solid Debut

When the Steelers signed Rodgers, the idea was that he would be good enough to lead his team to the playoffs. Play great defense, run the ball well (although Sunday wasn’t very inspiring in that aspect) and get some spectacular passes from the experienced veteran. Pittsburgh should feel good after Week 1. Rodgers had a classic throw, a beautiful pass to Calvin Austin III, but he also operated within the limits of the offense against the Jets. He had nine “dropbacks” of “play-action” under center in this game, almost matching his best mark in a single game (10 plays) in the last five seasons. These “dropbacks” are a staple of Arthur Smith’s offense, but they have largely been rejected by Rodgers, who prefers to keep his eyes on the defensive field, which is difficult to do when simulating a pass to the running back.

This was one of Rodgers’ eight pass attempts that exceeded 15 yards. It was well-designed, but, obviously, quite open; the cornerback stumbled on the route and never recovered. In fact, seven of Rodgers’ eight long passes were the result of a coverage error or a missed tackle.

In general, the Jets’ secondary had a forgettable day. Rodgers took advantage of the 6-foot-1-inch cornerback, Brandon Stephens, who was one of the worst defensive players in contested balls in the league last season. The Steelers will not face a secondary with so many mistakes very often, and the margins will become narrower. Rodgers is doing the right things and seems more willing to adapt to the system than he was at the end of his time with the Packers and/or with the Jets. Steelers fans should be happy. I’m just not sure that doing the right things yields as many results each week as it did on Sunday.

Justin Fields, Jets: A New Beginning

Fields’ excellence in his first game with the Jets didn’t reside in what was present, but in what wasn’t: negative plays. In Fields’ three seasons with the Bears, risk management was his biggest problem. He was sacked on 10.9% of dropbacks, the highest rate of any quarterback in that period, and held the ball for 3.34 seconds per dropback, leading the league. The ball never came out quickly, or it did; his scramble rate of 12.4% also led the league, although that wasn’t necessarily a bad thing. But Fields always had trouble calibrating risk with reward. For every long pass or heroic escape, he had two bad sacks and three missed passes. Fields was trying to be Superman too often when the Chicago offense needed Clark Kent. This improved a bit in Pittsburgh, his interception rate went from 3.1% to 0.6%, for example, but the Steelers’ offense wasn’t built for him. It was built for Russell Wilson, and Fields never fit. This offense in New York? This was built for Fields. On Sunday against his former team, the Steelers, he had nine designed runs, more than in almost all the games of his time in Pittsburgh. He was given intermediate and deep routes from the pocket instead of seeing them exclusively in “play-action” and “rollouts”. That allowed him to throw from balanced bases and use his speed to reach closed windows. The Jets’ offense was not only built for its strengths; it also protected it from its weaknesses. Tanner Engstrand, who directed perhaps the best game of any new coordinator (offensive or defensive), committed to protecting Fields from third downs and long distances that exposed him to his worst tendencies. The Jets ran the ball on 58.1% of their plays, producing a rushing rate 21.3% above expectations, given the attempts and distances they faced, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. That would have been the ninth-heaviest game in terms of designed runs in the NFL last season. The commitment to the running game protected Fields from third downs and short distances where the fearsome Steelers attack could strike. Fields had six “dropbacks” on third down and needed to gain an average of 4.6 yards, the shortest third-down distance for a starter in his career. He converted three of the six, and also converted a fourth down and one yard for a touchdown. Once again, this was about protection. The Jets passed the ball on a third down and 11 yards and a third down and 17 yards, a very cautious approach that will continue to hurt them in close games. But, just as they are aware of Fields’ particular problems, he is too, and he seemed more skilled at handling the pocket than he ever did in Chicago. Fields is not a fixed player, at least not yet. He still arrives a little late to his reads, although he has the ball speed to make up for it. Still, for the first time since Fields entered the league, it really seems that an offensive coach is willing to adapt the system and play calling to take advantage of Fields’ strengths and shape his weaknesses. This shouldn’t have been difficult elsewhere, although it was both in Chicago and Pittsburgh. But things make sense now under Engstrand in New York. A preseason and a starting role won’t completely fix a quarterback. But that’s how the recovery process began for Sam Darnold with Minnesota and Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay, by placing them in offenses that worked for them, allowing their confidence to build and expanding their responsibilities over time. A good foundation was laid in New York in Week 1. Keep building in Week 2.

Daniel Jones, Colts: A “Point Guard” Game

It’s hard to overstate how badly the Dolphins’ secondary played on Sunday. Cornerback Jack Jones had multiple coverage errors on the first series. Miami had serious difficulties in zone coverage, allowing receivers to get open beyond their most open defender. Colts running back Jonathan Taylor moved to the side and had an 18-yard reception and run because no one followed him. Mo Alie-Cox had a 20-yard reception and run because, again, the defender on the weak side gave him unobstructed access to the sideline. These are worse than preseason mistakes. They are mistakes from the second half of a preseason game. In the second quarter, when it became evident that their defense had no chance, coordinator Anthony Weaver began to intensify the blitz in the hope of disrupting Jones and causing a turnover. This worked in part. Jones’s success rate was 65% (incredibly good) without extra players, compared to only 56% (really good) when Weaver sent extras. The problem for Miami was how well Colts coach Shane Steichen called the offense, giving Jones quick options (2.33 seconds to throw against 16 blitzes) to a variety of strong receivers who gain yards after the catch. That’s the story of the Colts-Dolphins game: a sadly dismantled secondary facing a deep receiving corps with a great strategist as head coach. I can’t generate any meaningful conclusion about the starting quarterback, neither good nor bad. Jones had a classic “point guard” game. He threw well to his first read when open, including a beautiful deep pass to Adonai Mitchell with anticipation, but didn’t do much damage through his progressions. He was fine as a runner, as always. Jones avoided negative plays (no interceptions, one sack), which was and will continue to be his main emphasis while maintaining the starting position over Anthony Richardson Sr. Jones also found his outlets quickly, so any concern that he was still assimilating Steichen’s playbook should be dispelled. But the Colts’ offense was barely harassed in this game. Even with all that blitzing, Jones was only pressured on six of his 33 “dropbacks”. If there’s a victory lap to be taken at the Jones-Colts wedding, it will come later. It was certainly a good day’s work, but I’m sure Richardson could have also scored 33 points against the Dolphins’ defense on Sunday. (And QB3 Riley Leonard would have gotten a solid 27 points on his own). Next week for the Colts? The Broncos defense. That’s a bit tougher test.

Cam Ward, Titans: Potential to Refine

The stat sheet was not kind to Ward on Sunday. He had a success rate on dropbacks of 17.7%. That ranks him 1,101st out of 1,105 quarterback games since the start of the 2023 season. The analysis is much kinder. Ward missed on a couple of plays, including a fumble to the tight end and rookie teammate Gunnar Helm on the right wing and a couple of third-down passes that ended up a yard short of the markers. Not to mention two drops by lead receiver Calvin Ridley (who, arguably, should have been awarded a third); both would have been first downs. That said, Ward has a lot to improve on, which is not surprising after a rookie quarterback’s first start against a defense like the Broncos. Unforgivable back-to-back sacks in the final quarter took Tennessee out of field goal range in a one-point game, and both were avoidable if Ward had thrown the ball or played with more urgency. Ward also left seven points on the table in the red zone when wide receiver Van Jefferson got open as expected on a fake route, but Ward had already lowered his eyes and gone into run mode. The play is designed for Jefferson, and the ball should have been thrown. In general, I remain optimistic about Ward’s future in the NFL. In Miami, Ward was an instinctive passer. He remains so in the NFL, where he throws with anticipation and an understanding of how coverages will develop. He made multiple plays against pressure in this game that demonstrated an absurd serenity for a veteran, let alone a rookie. It’s almost too quiet sometimes. He was sacked, almost by a safety, because he took the ball out on a dwindling game clock without alerting his offensive line of the urgency. Right tackle JC Latham was late to his position, and although that’s more Latham’s fault, Ward is the leader of the offense and will learn to take those things into account. High-difficulty throws were abundant on Sunday, and easy-throw talent was evident. The Titans are a young team with many issues to rectify, including pre-snap alignment confusion and errors in the running game. As that improves throughout the season, the team will catch up to Ward’s talent and look more cohesive in the passing game.

Second Opinion: Start Russell Wilson as much as you can

ESPN’s “First Take” is known for, well, giving the first take on things, the instant reactions. “Second Take” is not a place for instant reactions, but rather the place where I’ll let the dust settle before perhaps taking a slightly contrarian view. I understand how frustrating Sunday was for Giants fans. A final score of 21-6 belies how close the game was overall. The Giants’ defense was disruptive and opportunistic, and the offense had… well, opportunities to score points, at least. But yes, it was bad. Wilson had a completion percentage of only 45.9%, 12.7% below expectations, according to Next Gen Stats, which is really worrying considering that more than 30% of his pass attempts were behind the line of scrimmage. Wilson had one pass attempt of more than 20 yards, which is bad practice: the only thing he still does really well is the “moonball” (long pass). Wilson’s lack of long passes is defensible, to a certain extent. He was under constant pressure. He was pressured on 16 of his 45 “dropbacks” (35.6%), and eight of them were classified by Next Gen Stats as “quick” pressures, pressures in less than 2.5 seconds. The Giants kept the same starting offensive line from last season and reaped the rewards of that work, as the interior of John Michael Schmitz Jr., Jon Runyan, and Greg Van Roten struggled a lot with Washington’s defensive tackle duo, Daron Payne and Javon Kinlaw. But Wilson’s start was only defensible to a point. He was erratic in the pocket, late on many reads, and generally inaccurate. After just one start, there are already rumblings from the fanbase to see first-round rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart. And I am here to say unequivocally, emphatically: No. Not yet.

It will hurt Dart’s development to put him behind this line. The Giants have no impact on the running game, which will keep Dart in difficult situations, and there are no high-level pass blockers available at the moment. Critically, the Giants’ offensive line is also not going to improve overnight or during the season: they are mostly veteran players. We might see fifth-round rookie Marcus Mbow, for whom there has been good camp buzz, at some point. But this is a below-average line overall.

Why not play Dart now, then, just get it out of the way? Either way, it’s going to be bad, it’s better to gain some experience, learn to work around the line, fix the other rookie wrinkles, and prepare for a productive and exciting 2026.

Because Andrew Thomas should still return. The Giants’ franchise left tackle underwent an offseason procedure to remove a screw from his foot. That screw was in place because Thomas has been battling foot injuries for years, and foot injuries are nasty things: they always bother and require constant maintenance. Thomas practiced on Friday before the game against Washington, but was unable to play. His status for this Sunday is still to be determined. Backup left tackle James Hudson III, in his place, had perhaps the most difficult day of all in Week 1. While the Giants will have pass protection issues no matter what, the difference between an elite blindside protector and an unreliable one is huge. There are the obvious reasons (it’s called the blindside for a reason!) and there are the not-so-obvious ones. Brian Daboll can only design so much; if he has to deal with a rookie quarterback and unstable pass protection from both the right and left, his playbook becomes extremely limited. If he can set it and forget it at left tackle with Thomas, it’s easier to deploy more offensive resources to help Dart. Also think about the type of offense Daboll wants to run with Dart: all those ingenious RPOs we saw in the preseason. Because Dart is right-handed, most of those run and pass options are also right-handed. The running back is aligned to the right of the quarterback, and the read and the route are to the right of the quarterback. There’s a lot a coach can do to expose edge rushers without blocking on that side of the formation; less on the opposite side. Take Dart out now and he’ll take many sacks. Take him out later and it will probably happen too. But the Giants’ best chance of having a functional offense lies in Thomas, the only first-class offensive lineman they currently have, and they’re not even sure he’s healthy yet. Put him on the field, see if he can recover. Then, deploy Dart. Yes, Wilson’s games are going to be bad in the meantime. But guess what? They knew it. We all knew it. We’ve all watched Wilson the last few seasons. This is something to endure, hopefully, the last thing to endure before a young and glorious quarterback takes over and revolutionizes the franchise. But the team isn’t ready for him yet. Wait, take your last dose of medicine and pray for Thomas to recover.

From you

The best part of writing this column is hearing from all of you. Contact me on X (@BenjaminSolak) or by email (benjamin.solak@espn.com) anytime, but especially on Mondays of each week, to ask a question and possibly get an answer here. From Chris: I need you to tell me that Drake Maye will be okay. Drake Maye will be fine. This was one of Maye’s worst games as a professional. He started forcing in the second half against Las Vegas, which led to bad decisions and inaccuracies. I’ll say there were some disagreements between Maye and his receivers about the depth and breaks of the routes, which was an annoying characteristic of last season’s offense that I thought would be fixed with the new coaching staff. The Patriots get a Week 1 pass, many teams were sloppy in Week 1, as is always the case, but this is precisely the kind of thing Mike Vrabel was hired to fix. The only two receivers Maye has chemistry with right now are Kayshon Boutte and Hunter Henry. I’m fascinated to see what rookie Kyle Williams looks like when he gets on the field more often.

However, Patriots fans should be the first to remember not to overreact to Week 1. Remember last season? When Jacoby Brissett led New England to victory over the Bengals? This was a bad game from Maye, but in four weeks, it will feel like a meaningless Maye game. So yes, Maye will be fine.

From Dan: Is there any reason why I shouldn’t be completely out on Bryce Young? I’m hearing a lot of excuses from some fans/media, and, of course, it’s not all his fault. But, what reasons should I have to believe he could be a QB who leads a team to the playoffs? Because I’m having a hard time finding them. I want to answer this with caution. Last year, in this same Week 1 column, I wrote about how rough Young looked in the season opener and how I didn’t see a future in the NFL for him. What kind of offense could work around a quarterback so afraid of pressure, so reluctant to throw over the middle, so lacking in top-level physical attributes? Of course, Young was a substitute, then returned and had a decent end to 2024. It wasn’t anything revolutionary, but it was better than I thought an offense could be built around Young. I was completely wrong. So you shouldn’t be completely out for that reason. We’ve seen it work for Young at times, Week 18 game against Atlanta, along with Week 12 against the Chiefs. Dave Canales can do enough with Young so that, in theory, a team with a great running game and a great defense can overcome the obstacle. But the Panthers don’t have a great running game and certainly don’t have a great defense. As we saw against the Jaguars, Young still harbors a lot of that erratic,