NFL: Surprises in Week 7, Who Were Really the Favorites?

In the unpredictable world of the NFL, certainties are ephemeral. What is observed in the first weeks of the season can differ drastically as the schedule progresses. September’s performance doesn’t always translate into postseason success. Teams that shone at the beginning may fade, while others, initially hesitant, consolidate. Here’s a look at four early season trends and how Week 7 altered the perception of some of the league’s most intriguing teams.

Kansas City Chiefs

What was said in September: “This offensive is broken.” Initially, the Chiefs looked disorganized, but after a convincing victory over the Giants, the offense seemed to rely on Mahomes’ improvised plays. The return of Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice promised to improve the situation. However, in the last four weeks, the Chiefs have resurfaced. They rank fourth in EPA per play, a figure that rises to first place excluding downtime. They are second in points per drive and have scored touchdowns on 56% of their possessions since Week 4, surpassing the league average. With Rice’s return, the Chiefs unleashed their stellar offense against the Raiders. The result was striking: 31 points and 30 first downs, with Mahomes on the field. The Chiefs averaged 0.38 EPA per play with Mahomes, their best performance since Week 3 of 2023. This performance was the ninth most productive of the Mahomes era. The Chiefs’ offense is thriving, and although Rice’s return and the rival’s weakness influenced it, the improvement began in Week 4 against the Ravens.

Legend: Jeff Saturday analyzes the Bills’ defeat against the Falcons.

The passing game and the receivers’ performance have been key. The receivers are catching Mahomes’ passes better, and the Chiefs’ open pass rate has improved noticeably. With Rice and Worthy back, Kansas City can stretch the field and create dilemmas for opposing defenses. Tight ends have also gotten involved, and the pass protection issues that affected Mahomes in 2024 have diminished. The Chiefs are emulating the Bills, becoming a factory of positive plays. The improvement in the offensive line and success on early downs have reduced the pressure on third down. With Rice and Worthy on the field and Mahomes playing at a spectacular level, the Chiefs’ offense looks set to terrorize the league once more.

Jacksonville Jaguars

What was said in September: “The defense can sustain a careless offense”. Despite initial optimism, Trevor Lawrence’s offense did not meet expectations. The Jaguars led the league in penalties and errors. The defense compensated for the problems by forcing turnovers, which gave them good field position. However, in the last two defeats, the Jaguars have had fewer short field opportunities, and the defense has not forced turnovers. Offensive penalties continue to be a problem. Pass drops also persist, affecting the team’s performance. The lack of consistency in the offense has made it difficult for the Jaguars to win, who need to clean up their mistakes.

Buffalo Bills

What was said in September: “They have a clear path to the top spot in the AFC.” After a defeat against the Falcons, the Bills’ slump is notable. After a promising start, the team has suffered two consecutive defeats. The key to their previous success was the minimization of turnovers. However, in the last three games, the Bills have committed six turnovers. Josh Allen has thrown interceptions and suffered sacks, affecting the team’s performance. The Bills’ defense, which used to be effective in creating turnovers, has diminished its capacity in this aspect. To be successful, the Bills’ offense needs more explosive plays and fewer turnovers, while the defense must improve its ability to force turnovers.