If you don’t want to ruin your 2025 NFL season, stay away.Usually, we analyze the NFL based on probabilities: the possibility of the Eagles repeating as champions, the probability of the Bengals returning to the playoffs, or the chances of the Browns being the best team (well, maybe not that one). But, from time to time, we need to add certainty to our predictions. After all, the next NFL season will unfold in only one way. So, why not simulate it and see what happens?This is what we’ll do here. We’re going to detail the story of a unique simulation from ESPN’s Football Power Index, which typically uses 10,000 simulations to generate its projections. To be clear, this is not my prediction or ESPN Analytics’ on how this season will unfold. This is simply simulation number 4,091, which could definitely, absolutely, happen in 2025. Let’s see!
Check out the full FPI projections for the 2025 season
Surprises in the Season: Super Bowl LIX Champions Out of the Playoffs
Once months after the Chiefs and Eagles faced off in Super Bowl LIX, both teams packed their bags after Week 18. Neither managed to return to the playoffs, which was, without a doubt, the big surprise of the 2025 season in this simulation.The Eagles, in fact, finished before the last week. Considered invincible at the start of the season, the Eagles ended up with a 5-4 record after Week 10, one game behind the Cowboys, but still in control of their destiny in the postseason. This turned into a 6-8 record, leaving Philadelphia in a panic. In the end, the Eagles could not recover ground, being out of the fight for the NFC East and the wild card.The Chiefs’ collapse was much more impactful. Kansas City controlled its destiny in the AFC West after beating the Broncos on Christmas Day, improving to 9-7. It only needed to beat the Raiders to secure its 11th consecutive playoff appearance. But Patrick Mahomes’ winning gene didn’t show up, and the Chiefs fell 28-19, allowing the Broncos, who won their Week 18 game, to win the division on a tiebreaker. There was also no wild card for the Chiefs.The two defending conference champions weren’t the only surprising teams to miss the playoffs in 2025. The Commanders, 49ers, and Packers also missed out.Aaron Rodgers’ Experiment Fails, Mike Tomlin Suffers His First Losing Season
The Steelers’ bet on the veteran quarterback was always a high-risk play. Finally, the poor performance that began in Green Bay in 2022 and continued in New York in 2024 could not be reversed.Things started well. Rodgers got revenge on the Jets in Week 1, and a 3-2 start generated optimism. But a five-game losing streak hit them, with losses to the Bengals, Packers, Colts, Chargers and again the Bengals. At that point, it was clear that the Steelers’ season, and Rodgers’ career, had ended.The Broncos Seize the AFC West Crown
The AFC West wasn’t so difficult after all. Despite the optimism of the four teams at the start of the season, no one separated themselves from the group or achieved an impressive record. But someone had to prevail.Denver became the first team in a decade to dethrone the Chiefs from their AFC West crown. Tied with the Chargers at 8-8 entering Week 18, the Broncos secured the division title with an 18-15 victory over Justin Herbert, Jim Harbaugh, and the Chargers.The victory was indicative of the Broncos’ strengths, as the offense provided just enough help for a suffocating defense. Denver finished the season ranked first in defensive EPA per play.Cowboys Surprisingly Win NFC East Title
Just like in the AFC West, it wasn’t so much that another team took the division crown from the Eagles, but rather that Philadelphia was dragged into the overall mediocrity of the division. And when the Eagles stumbled, Dallas took advantage.Perhaps we shouldn’t be so surprised that the Cowboys made the playoffs (even if winning the division seemed unlikely). Although preseason conversations revolved around Micah Parsons and his eventual transfer, the remaining core of this team still included Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens. Considering that Prescott finished second in QBR in 2023, Dallas was always capable of having a quality offense, and in this case it was good enough to compensate for the absence of Parsons. Young pass rushers Donovan Ezeiruaku and Sam Williams also contributed.
In the end, the Cowboys won the division with a 9-8 record, although they failed again in the postseason with a wild card loss.Colts Win AFC South; Titans Get Wild Card
Even in a season where the Chiefs and Eagles missed the playoffs, what happened in the AFC South caught attention. Somehow, Colts coach Shane Steichen unlocked the 2022 version of Daniel Jones, leaning on the legs of the former Giants quarterback, while Lou Anarumo and the new secondary transformed the defense. The result was a 10-7 record and a playoff spot.But the real story of the AFC South was the scorching start of Cam Ward and the Titans. Tennessee started the season 9-3 as Ward took the league by storm. He was the talk of the NFL for 13 weeks and had the Offensive Rookie of the Year award locked up. But the Titans proceeded to rack up a five-game losing streak as the league caught up with the rookie quarterback, and Tennessee limped into the playoffs with a 9-8 record.While the Colts stole the division from the Titans, Tennessee was able to turn the tables in the wild card round. The result? A 34-13 thrashing in favor of Tennessee at Lucas Oil Stadium.Ravens Overcome Bengals for AFC North Title
With the Browns and Steelers out of the equation, it became clear midway through the season that the AFC North would be decided between Baltimore and Cincinnati. The competition reached its peak in Week 15, when the two teams, then tied at 7-6, faced each other for the second time.It was a classic in Baltimore. Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson traded big passes against seemingly helpless defenses: the quarterbacks combined for an astonishing eight touchdown passes. But the Ravens finally got the stop they needed, and rookie Tyler Loop finished off the Bengals with a 43-yard field goal as time expired, giving the Ravens a 41-38 victory. The win put Baltimore a game ahead in the standings and also gave them a direct tiebreaker against the Bengals. It was necessary, as the Ravens and Bengals finished 10-7.The lack of home-field advantage proved costly for the Bengals, who lost a wild card game in Denver 35-32. The Ravens took advantage by playing at home, defeating the Dolphins 34-17 in the wild card round and the Broncos 24-22 in the divisional round to reach the AFC Championship.The Cardinals Win a Playoff Game
With all the surprises in the NFC playoff absences, there were available spots. And the Cardinals were one of the teams that took advantage. Arizona had a good, but not excellent, 9-8 season in which quarterback Kyler Murray played quite well, wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. took a small step forward, and the defense was mediocre. That was enough for a wild card spot, and the Cardinals made noise in the postseason.Arizona defeated the Falcons, champions of the NFC South, 35-14. Josh Sweat, in the playoffs, took down Michael Penix Jr. several times, while Murray threw two touchdown passes to Zay Jones. But the Cardinals didn’t maintain that momentum in their divisional round matchup with the Vikings, losing 28-22 when their winning scoring attempt stalled in the final minute.The Saints Get the First Overall Pick, Sparking Speculation About Arch Manning
Sometimes, preseason expectations are met. FPI predicted the Saints would be the worst football team, and they were. The favorable schedule also played in their favor. New Orleans tied with the Jets and Browns for the worst record at 5-12, but obtained the number 1 pick by the tiebreaker of the strength of schedule.
Before the season, Archie Manning predicted that his grandson Arch Manning would stay at Texas for the 2026 season. But when the Saints, Archie’s former team, obtained the first overall pick, speculation about the youngest Manning accelerating his timeline in the NFL began to grow.
The Buccaneers, Seeded Number 7, Make an Improbable Run to the Super Bowl
For much of the season, the Buccaneers looked like a mild disappointment, as quarterback Baker Mayfield failed to match his 2024 success with new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard. Entering Week 18, Tampa Bay was at 8-8, outside of the playoff spots, one game out of the wild card and the NFC South. The Bucs needed that final week to go well for them, and it did.The division was out of reach once the Falcons beat the Saints, but the Buccaneers kept their playoff hopes alive with a 20-15 victory over the Panthers. They got the help they needed, with the 49ers losing to the Seahawks 24-17 and the Bears falling to the Lions 38-9. That allowed Tampa Bay to get the last wild card spot with a 9-8 record.The Bucs entered the playoffs with low expectations, but surprised the Lions, seeded number 2, 27-24 in the wild card round, thanks to a tackle by Yaya Diaby and a deflection of a pass from Jared Goff that was intercepted. Then, Tampa Bay surprised the Rams, seeded number 1, 27-22 in the divisional round thanks to a clinical performance by Mayfield. Todd Bowles’ defense did its job in the NFC Championship, confusing J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings and winning 28-13. Emeka Egbuka and Bucky Irving had great days, and the Bucs reached the Super Bowl, where they faced the Bills.In a wild NFC playoffs, five of the six visiting teams won their matchups. Here’s how the playoffs unfolded overall on the road to the Super Bowl:Wild-card round (AFC) No. 2 Ravens def. No. 7 Dolphins 34-17 (AFC) No. 6 Titans def. No. 3 Colts 34-13 (AFC) No. 4 Broncos def. No. 5 Bengals 35-32 (NFC) No. 7 Buccaneers def. No. 2 Lions 27-24 (NFC) No. 6 Cardinals def. No. 3 Falcons 35-14 (NFC) No. 5 Vikings def. No. 4 Cowboys 10-9 Divisional round (AFC) No. 1 Bills def. No. 6 Titans 28-14 (AFC) No. 2 Ravens def. No. 4 Broncos 24-22 (NFC) No. 7 Buccaneers def. No. 1 Rams 27-22 (NFC) No. 5 Vikings def. No. 6 Cardinals 28-22 Conference championships (AFC) No. 1 Bills def. No. 2 Ravens 24-20 (NFC) No. 7 Buccaneers def. No. 5 Vikings 28-13
The Bills Win Super Bowl LX
Bills fans, rejoice! Buffalo did it. After falling short four times in a row in the early 1990s and then knocking on the door in recent years with Josh Allen, the Bills finally broke through with a resounding victory.Buffalo was the best team in the regular season, winning 13 games to get the number 1 seed in the AFC. Allen won his second consecutive MVP award, and the Lombardi trophy was considered Buffalo’s.The Bills’ number 1 seed earned them a divisional round matchup against a Titans team that wasn’t ready for the moment. The Bills won 28-14. The real test came in the AFC Championship, the last game at Highmark Stadium.With snow falling Buffalo-style, the Bills hosted their fiercest rival, the Ravens. Allen delivered a top-tier performance, recording a QBR of 91 and throwing a touchdown pass in the final quarter to tight end Dalton Kincaid. Allen and the Bills overcame Jackson and the Ravens 24-20 to advance to Super Bowl LX.The betting market placed the Bills as 7.5-point favorites over the Buccaneers, which was more than enough. The Bills opened with a two-score lead in the first eight minutes with a 56-yard touchdown run by James Cook. It didn’t get any closer, so Allen barely needed to make big plays. Cook took home the Super Bowl LX MVP with his three touchdowns, and the Bills were finally victorious, defeating Tampa Bay 55-23.
