NFL Rookie Projections for the 2025 Season
Almost a month away from the 2025 NFL Draft, we already have a better idea of what the teams will look like this season. This allows us to start projecting expectations and statistics for the rookies.
Who will compete with Cam Ward in passing yards? How many rushing yards are expected from running backs like Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton? What can we expect from Travis Hunter on offense and defense? And, who will lead the defensive rookies in tackles and sacks?
Below, we analyze the top five projected leaders among rookies in various statistical categories for the 2025 season. These team and player projections are our own, based on quantitative (league, team, and player trends) and qualitative (projected position on the depth chart and role) analysis.
Time lost to injury has been considered, with runners generally playing a maximum of 14 games and other positions, 15.
Leaders in Passing Yards and Touchdowns
- Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans: 3,392 yards, 20 TDs (15 starts)
- Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints: 3,020 yards, 13 TDs (13 starts)
- Jaxson Dart, New York Giants: 1,968 yards, 10 TDs (9 starts)
- Dillon Gabriel, Cleveland Browns: 1,205 yards, 5 TDs (5 starts)
- Shedeur Sanders, Cleveland Browns: 925 yards, 4 TDs (4 starts)
This class of quarterbacks is not one of the most outstanding. Cam Ward is the only one sure to be a starter in Week 1. Tyler Shough, selected in the second round, could be the Saints’ starter after Derek Carr’s retirement. Jaxson Dart will start behind Russell Wilson and possibly Jameis Winston, but history suggests that the number 25 pick will have an impact in his first year.
From 2011 to 2024, 38 of 47 first-round quarterbacks (81%) became starters before Week 10. Twenty-three (49%) started in Week 1, including Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Bo Nix last season. Of the seven quarterbacks selected between picks 20 and 32, six played as rookies and four took over as starters before Week 5.
There are 27 quarterbacks who played at least 14 games as rookies since 2011. Excluding Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson, that group averaged 3,455 passing yards and 19 touchdowns. Ward is in line with that historical average in 15 starts.
In Cleveland, Gabriel and Sanders will compete with Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett for the starting position in Week 1. Both rookies could have opportunities in 2025 due to the uncertainty with Flacco and Pickett.
Receiving Yards and Touchdowns Leaders
- Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers: 926 yards, 5 TDs
- Matthew Golden, Green Bay Packers: 889 yards, 6 TDs
- Travis Hunter, Jacksonville Jaguars: 884 yards, 5 TDs
- Jack Bech, Las Vegas Raiders: 747 yards, 4 TDs
- Jayden Higgins, Houston Texans: 723 yards, 4 TDs
As with quarterbacks, the 2025 wide receiver class isn’t as impressive as in recent years, but there were still four selected in the first round and ten more on the second day of the draft.
Hunter and McMillan, selected in the top 10, stand out. Of the 14 receivers selected in the top 10 since 2011, 13 produced at least 865 yards. This suggests that McMillan could reach 900 yards as a rookie, assuming quarterback Bryce Young maintains his improved play. Hunter is in a unique situation by also playing on defense, but is a safe bet as a key offensive target.
Golden, Higgins, and Bech could be starters in Week 1. However, the outlook for receivers selected after the 20th pick is less promising. Since 2011, only 24 of 148 receivers selected in rounds 2-3 reached 800 yards in their first year, and 24 scored at least seven touchdowns. This is something to consider when evaluating the potential of receivers from rounds 1 and 2.
The recent performances of Sam LaPorta and Brock Bowers could indicate that rookie tight ends will be more impactful, but they could also be exceptions. Loveland will have to compete for targets with Moore, Odunze, Luther Burden III, and Cole Kmet. Warren will need to overcome a low-volume passing game with Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones.
Leaders in Rushing Yards and Touchdowns
- Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders: 1,120 yards, 7 TDs
- Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers: 961 yards, 9 TDs
- Kaleb Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers: 947 yards, 7 TDs
- Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns: 922 yards, 6 TDs
- RJ Harvey, Denver Broncos: 841 yards, 5 TDs
The 2025 rookie running back class is one of the best we’ve seen in a long time, with 25 draft selections, the most for the position since 2019. The six running backs selected in the first three rounds will likely have a significant impact this season.
Jeanty, selected at pick 6, will be Las Vegas’s primary running back. The last four running backs selected among the top seven (Barkley, Richardson, Elliott, and Fournette) produced at least 260 carries, 950 rushing yards, and 9 touchdowns as rookies, and did so in fewer than 17 games.
Reaching 1,000 rushing yards as a rookie is not easy, but eight first-round running backs have had more than 225 carries in their first season since 2011. Jeanty should surpass that number. Those eight running backs reached 950 rushing yards, averaging 1,230 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns.
Chargers GM to McAfee: Omarion Hampton was a player we couldn’t pass on. The Chargers’ general manager, Joe Hortiz, speaks with Pat McAfee about the decision to select Omarion Hampton in the first round.
The outlook for Hampton isn’t as favorable as it is for Jeanty, but it’s still solid. Since 2011, eight running backs selected in the second half of the first round reached 800 rushing yards. Hampton will have to compete with the newly acquired Najee Harris, but will likely be the lead back in Jim Harbaugh’s scheme.
The second-day selections, Johnson, Judkins, Harvey, and TreVeyon Henderson, could also have important roles. Their production is a bit difficult to project, as we haven’t seen much success from second and third-round running backs. Since 2011, only 13 of 74 running backs selected in rounds 2-3 have reached 800 rushing yards in the first year. Fourteen of them reached six rushing touchdowns.
If this class of rookie running backs is truly special, we should expect more production from the late-round picks. Johnson will likely be the primary ball carrier in Pittsburgh. Judkins and Harvey will lead their respective backfields. Henderson will share the New England backfield with Rhamondre Stevenson.
Touchdowns from the Line of Scrimmage
- Omarion Hampton, RB, Los Angeles Chargers: 11
- Ashton Jeanty, RB, Las Vegas Raiders: 9
- Kaleb Johnson, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers: 8
- RJ Harvey, RB, Denver Broncos: 7
- Quinshon Judkins, RB, Cleveland Browns: 7
- TreVeyon Henderson, RB, New England Patriots: 7
Rookie touchdowns have declined, with fewer than 140 in three of the last four seasons. But the running back class could change that.
In the last decade, 23 rookies have reached 10 touchdowns. Sixteen of those players were running backs, so it shouldn’t be surprising to see six running backs on this list for 2025.
The four running backs selected among the top seven (Barkley, Richardson, Elliott, and Fournette) produced at least 10 touchdowns as rookies. So Jeanty reaching double digits would be on par with historical production, but I don’t expect him to reach that mark. In fact, I have Hampton ahead of Jeanty in total touchdowns because the Chargers’ offense will likely outperform the Raiders’ during the season. Los Angeles will also likely score more rushing touchdowns.
The lack of receivers could be confusing, but only 15 rookie receivers reached eight touchdowns in their first season in the last decade. While Brian Thomas Jr., Xavier Worthy, Jalen McMillan, and Marvin Harrison Jr. reached that mark in 2024, only four did so from 2021 to 2023.
Tackles
- Malaki Starks, S, Baltimore Ravens: 71
- Nick Martin, LB, San Francisco 49ers: 58
- Jahdae Barron, CB, Denver Broncos: 58
- Andrew Mukuba, S, Philadelphia Eagles: 56
- Jihaad Campbell, LB, Philadelphia Eagles: 56
Tackle projections are low this season, but there is uncertainty in the roles of certain rookies. After Ar’Darius Washington suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon, Starks has a clear path to a role in Baltimore alongside Kyle Hamilton. That’s why he’s well ahead of the others.
A linebacker usually leads the rookie class in tackles, but Campbell was the only one selected in the first round. He has to compete with Zack Baun and Nakobe Dean for snaps. Instead, Martin is our projected top tackler at the position, as the third-round pick should carve out a role alongside Fred Warner in San Francisco. Demetrius Knight Jr. (Bengals) is a name to watch, as he could have a bigger role if Germaine Pratt is traded.
Barron, the number 20 pick, will immediately compete with Riley Moss for a starting position against Pat Surtain II in Denver. In Philadelphia, Mukuba has the possibility of replacing C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who was traded to the Texans.
Sacks
- Abdul Carter, Edge, New York Giants: 6.0
- Mykel Williams, Edge, San Francisco 49ers: 6.0
- Jalon Walker, Edge, Atlanta Falcons: 6.0
- James Pearce Jr., Edge, Atlanta Falcons: 5.0
- Shemar Stewart, Edge, Cincinnati Bengals: 5.0
Rookies average a total of 107.2 sacks per season over the last decade, with a high of 130.0 in 2019 and a low of 71.5 in 2020. First-year players totaled a weak 84.5 sacks in 2024.
In fact, Rams defensive tackle Braden Fiske led all first-year players with 8.5 sacks last season, but only three others reached 5.0. Micah Parsons, with 13.0 sacks in 2021, had the most sacks in the last decade, and only four other first-year players reached double digits in that period. Four of the five players who surpassed double digits were first-round picks.
That is notable since the only five first-round edge rushers selected in 2025 are listed above. None are expected to surpass 6.5 sacks, but their projections would place them in the top 20 among first-round selections in the last decade.
Carter, the number 3 selection, could become one of the league’s best defenders, but will likely begin his career in a rotation with Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux. Williams is in a good position as Nick Bosa’s potential partner in San Francisco, while Walker and Pierce will quickly join a Falcons pass rush corps that finished with the second-fewest sacks in 2024 (31). And Stewart is ready to replace the retired Sam Hubbard in Cincinnati.
2:08 Stephen A. Gets Furious at Abdul Carter for Asking to Wear Lawrence Taylor’s No. 56. Stephen A. Smith goes off because Giants draft pick Abdul Carter asked to wear Lawrence Taylor’s retired No. 56.
Interceptions
T-1. Malaki Starks, S, Baltimore Ravens
