Detailed Analysis of the 2026 NFL Playoffs
It’s time to dive into the NFL playoffs preview. There are many ways to analyze what we’ll see, but I’ve decided on one that I like: taking the playoff bracket and trying to break down what matters most in each game, choosing the winners along the way. We’ll conclude with a Super Bowl prediction and a winner.I’ve used this format for a couple of years, and during that time, I’ve stuck to my preseason Super Bowl prediction when I put together my bracket in January. This time, that’s not going to work. I suggested before the season that the Chiefs would decline in 2025, but I thought it would be in the range of 11 or 12 wins, and I still believed they would win the Super Bowl. On the other hand, I had the Packers, who had just acquired Micah Parsons to add some star power to a young and talented roster.
A few ACL tears later, those plans are in disarray. The Chiefs aren’t in the picture at all. The Packers are here, but they’re injured as the seventh seed. So this year, because my preseason pick is officially impossible, I’m free to make a new Super Bowl prediction. The chance of me correctly picking all 13 games is 0.0 percent, but maybe we can learn something along the way. What interests me is how the teams match up and what has changed in them as they reach the postseason. Is there anything in a team’s performance that doesn’t match public perception? Is there any weakness that a particular opponent will likely exploit? Was there anything in a previous game between two teams that is unlikely to be repeated in a rematch?Of course, there are so many things that can happen in a single NFL game that cannot be anticipated. Think about the Packers vs. Eagles game from last season, when Green Bay missed the opening kickoff for a short field and a touchdown, lost Elgton Jenkins to an injury in the first quarter and his replacements committed three penalties, and ultimately finished the game without their top three receivers. Nobody could have imagined that the 49ers would end up playing Christian McCaffrey at quarterback out of desperation in the NFC Championship a few years ago or (look away, Saints fans) that an inexplicable pass interference penalty would help change that same game years before. There is more unknown than known when previewing any matchup, let alone a game that is weeks away.
However, it’s still fun to go over the bracket to figure out how the playoffs could go, and that’s why we’re here today. And while there have been years where the conference brackets seemed like parades to the Super Bowl for the top seeds, this is an open season. The Broncos and Seahawks have many skeptics. The highest-ranked team in the NFC in ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Rams, is the fifth seed. Their highest-ranked team in the AFC are the Ravens, who won’t be joining us this January, and just below them are the Bills, who will be the sixth seed in the conference. It seems like anything is possible this postseason.
AFC Wild Card Weekend
(7) Los Angeles Chargers vs. (2) New England Patriots Sunday, January 11 at 8 p.m. ET (NBC) Spread: NE -3.5 (46.5) Here’s a good example of why this is a flatter-than-usual postseason. Since the league moved to the 14-team playoff format, seventh seeds have been collectively massacred. They’ve had a 1-9 record and lost by an average of almost 11 points per game. The only seventh seed to win even a single game are the 2023 Packers, who were then eliminated by the 49ers in the divisional round. And yet, here in the AFC, the Chargers are only 3.5-point underdogs as they travel to the East Coast to face the Patriots. Playing on Sunday night is preferable given the history of West Coast teams traveling and playing 1 p.m. ET games, but this is really a referendum on the Patriots and the historically easy schedule they’ve faced this season. The Pats finished with the 10th-easiest schedule since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com, just ahead of the 1972 Dolphins, who took advantage of that friendly slate to achieve the only perfect season in league history. There’s a sort of “movable force against resistible object” happening for the Patriots on defense. Their weakness all season has been in the red zone, where they’ve allowed opposing teams to score touchdowns nearly 68% of the time, the third-lowest rate in the NFL. The problem for the Chargers is that they’ve also been a disaster in the red zone, where they’ve converted only 47.4% of their trips into touchdowns.Both sides could argue that they will be better in the postseason. The Chargers were without Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris, their two power runners, for most of the season. Now they have Hampton back, and with Kimani Vidal not playing in the entirety of Week 18 despite being cleared to play after suffering a neck injury, coach Jim Harbaugh could rely heavily on his first-round pick. The Patriots welcomed star defensive tackle Milton Williams, who had been out due to an ankle injury, for the last game of the regular season, and that’s a much-needed addition for a team built through its defensive line.
But the Chargers are a completely different offense without tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt. Slater has missed the entire season due to a torn patellar tendon. The Chargers have still been third in the NFL in EPA per play with Alt on the field, but they’ve been 26th without him. Losing Hampton for much of that stretch didn’t help, but the offense has been disjointed and has struggled to find an identity for most of the year. Drake Maye’s ability to attack downfield is the way to beat this Chargers defense, as C.J. Stroud demonstrated with his first-quarter explosion two weeks ago. Maye led the league in total QBR on deep passes, and while the Chargers were the fourth-best defense against short and intermediate passes by EPA per play, that fell to 16th when teams attacked them with deep passes.This would be a matchup of the best offense at throwing to either side by QBR (New England) against the best defense at stopping those throws (Los Angeles). Chargers star cornerback Donte Jackson is expected to play after exiting the Chargers’ loss to the Broncos in Week 18 with an injury, but I think Maye connects on a couple of deep shots to get his first career playoff win.
Prediction: Patriots 21, Chargers 13 (6) Buffalo Bills vs. (3) Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday, January 11 at 1 p.m. ET (CBS) Spread: BUF -1.5 (51.5) This is the weekend game for me, as we’ll have Josh Allen with a week off for his injured foot against Trevor Lawrence in the best form of his career. Lawrence’s total QBR of 85.0 in the last five games is second in the NFL, behind Maye; Lawrence is averaging 8.3 yards per attempt during that span while throwing 15 touchdown passes against only one interception.Can Lawrence sustain that through the postseason? I’m not sure. We’re not that far removed from a four-turnover game against the Cardinals in Week 12, and Lawrence had 13 interceptions and five fumbles this season. I also go back to 2022, when Lawrence posted a 15-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the final 10 games of the season, then threw five interceptions in two postseason games against the Chargers and Chiefs.
Lawrence has been able to play his best football after Jacksonville added Jakobi Meyers, who gave him a much-needed option on inside routes. Lawrence and the Jags were 30th in QBR on inside routes during the first half of the season, but that has improved to 10th during the second half. The Bills have been a more or less neutral defense against different types of routes, but it makes sense to target the center of their defense. Cole Bishop has struggled at safety, and it’s unclear if Buffalo will have (or should expect to have) Jordan Poyer at safety or Terrel Bernard at linebacker. The biggest concern with the Bills in this matchup would be on the ground, where they have been a sieve in terms of allowing big plays. Buffalo has conceded 28 gains of 15 yards or more on the ground, the most of any postseason team. Jaguars coach Liam Coen has improved what had been a moribund running game, but despite a few big runs here and there, Jacksonville was 27th in the league in converting rushing attempts into gains of 15 or more yards. If the Jaguars win this game, it will likely include a long carry or two from Travis Etienne Jr., who could be playing his last game in a Jags uniform. The other factor that could decide this game is whether Jacksonville’s defense can force one or two interceptions from Allen. A year after recording the fewest takeaways in the league, the Jaguars have thrived by forcing turnovers, with their 22 interceptions ranking second in the NFL. And while Allen recorded a 1.2% interception rate, the lowest of his career, while winning the MVP a year ago, his 2.2% rate in 2025 was more or less in line with his career average. With a receiving corps struggling to separate against tight coverage, we know Allen is going to need to make some tight-window throws, and that’s where the Jags can get their picks. However, the Jaguars are a heavy zone coverage team, and Allen’s QBR of 71.7 against the zone this season is the second-best mark in the league. The Jaguars have been a much better defense against teams that go lighter than against teams that use multiple tight ends, and the Bills are going to bring Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, and Jackson Hawes onto the field to try to manipulate Jacksonville’s personnel and limit their exotic pressure looks. The Bills win in a shootout. Prediction: Bills 28, Jaguars 24 (5) Houston Texans vs. (4) Pittsburgh Steelers Monday, January 12 at 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC) Spread: HOU -3 (39.5) The Texans enter the postseason as the hottest team in the NFL, after responding to their 2-4 start by winning 10 of the next 11 games, including nine straight to end the 2025 season. They are third in EPA per play on defense, and their physicality is a terrifying match for a Steelers team that doesn’t usually stretch opposing defenses on the field. Aaron Rodgers was able to consistently move the ball down the field on Sunday night only after the Ravens lost star safety Kyle Hamilton to a concussion. The Steelers have a different formula for winning. Does it match up well against the Texans? We know Rodgers wants to get the ball out quickly, which could help mitigate the impact of the Texans’ fearsome pressure. Derek Stingley Jr. & Co. form an excellent secondary, but the Texans are not as effective when the ball comes out within 2.5 seconds of the snap. Houston is 13th in EPA per defensive snap on those quick passes and the best defense in the league after that. Rodgers averages a pass that comes out after 2.6 seconds, the fastest speed for anyone in the league.
And while we just saw the Steelers win what unexpectedly turned into a shootout at the end of the game with the Ravens, we know their paths to victory have been narrower than those of the Texans. These teams have flaws on the front end, and I would expect a conservative game driven by the two pass rushes. But the Steelers are the most likely of these two teams to make a fatal mistake.
Prediction: Texans 16, Steelers 13NFC Wild Card Weekend
(7) Green Bay Packers vs. (2) Chicago Bears Saturday, January 10th at 8 p.m. ET (Prime Video) Spread: GB -1.5 (45.5) It’s the Packers’ third consecutive postseason as the seventh seed, and it’s the third game between these two teams this season. The Packers were a kick onsidekick onside away from sweeping their division rivals, but the Bears were also an interception of the last minuteinterception of the last minute away from getting the sweep themselves.Despite the difference in seeding, this is also another matchup where the lower seed is favored. The Packers are favored by 1.5 points even though they are traveling to Chicago this weekend. ESPN’s Football Power Index has the Packers as the fifth-best team in the NFL, while the Bears are 15th. DVOA ranks the Packers at 11th and the Bears at 16th, just behind the Ravens and Chiefs.
Are there reasons to think those numbers might be wrong? Yes, mainly due to player availability. The Packers will not have Micah Parsons in this game after the star edge rusher tore his left ACL. Cornerback Nate Hobbs, another offseason addition, is on injured reserve. Josh Jacobs has clearly been limping in recent weeks; the lead running back had to leave the Packers’ Week 16 game against the Bears after a fumble on the goal line, then carried the ball four times for 3 yards against the Ravens before sitting out Week 18. And Zach Tom, the Green Bay right tackle, will be questionable.
Jordan Love returns to the lineup after suffering a concussion in the Week 16 loss to the Bears and missing the rest of the regular season. The Packers looked good on offense with backup Malik Willis under center, but Love was third in the league in EPA per dropback before the second game against the Bears. At his best, Love is one of the most efficient quarterbacks in football. And while his mistakes can be obvious and frustrating, Love is at his best more often than it might seem.
One of the things that Love and the Packers do very well is a problem for the Bears. I’ve written about this repeatedly throughout the season, but it remains an issue: the Bears depend entirely and absolutely on creating turnovers on defense. They are the best team in the NFL at forcing turnovers, finishing a league-high 18.2% of opposing drives with a turnover. But they are 27th in points allowed per possession when they don’t force a turnover, just ahead of the Jets and Bengals. The hope was that the return of Jaylon Johnson and other starters from injuries would improve the defense, but the Bears have continued to struggle when they aren’t taking the ball away. The Packers, unfortunately for Chicago, turn the ball over at the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL, as only 7.8% of their drives end with a turnover. The Bears forced a Packers turnover in each of their games, but Green Bay scored 28 in the first game. In the second, the Packers drove inside the 10-yard line four times in the first three quarters and came away with only three points, something the Bears can’t count on again in the tiebreaker game. What the Bears can count on, however, is emulating what the Ravens did against the Packers in Week 17: run like crazy with the ball. Derrick Henry had one of the best games of any running back all season against the Packers (216 yards, four TDs), and the Bears have a better ground attack than the Ravens, if not a better running back. Powered by one of the best ground-blocking lines in the league, the Bears are third in designed run success rate. The Packers are 23rd against those runs, and although the Cowboys were happy to insinuate that Parsons was a disastrous run defender, it’s telling that Henry’s big game came after Parsons missed the season.We saw Bears quarterback Caleb Williams connect on what could have been the throw of the year to win the second game against the Packers in overtime, but he has been inconsistent and has a high off-target rate. He should have something like a full complement of playmakers, but I don’t know if the Bears can stop the Packers on defense. This should be another fun game, but I expect the Packers to win the tiebreaker.
Prediction: Packers 31, Bears 24 (6) San Francisco 49ers vs. (3) Philadelphia Eagles Sunday, January 11 at 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox) Spread: PHI -4.5 (44.5) The vibes for this matchup aren’t exactly blissful. The 49ers are coming off a brutal loss in their attempt to win the NFC West and the conference’s top seed, scoring only three points in what was the least successful offensive effort of the Kyle Shanahan era (since 2017). The Eagles essentially responded by sitting their starters (minus receiver DeVonta Smith, who was bombarded with targets to surpass 1,000 yards before leaving the game) and losing to the Commanders, missing the opportunity to obtain the second seed in the process. Eagles coach Nick Sirianni will never say this, but I suspect that both the coach and the rest of the organization preferred to play against an injury-depleted 49ers team than against the Packers, who rank as a better team according to advanced metrics. (Some organizations wouldn’t know or care, but I believe the analytics-minded Eagles are not one of those teams). The Eagles would miss out on a potential home game if they end up playing the Bears, but we’ve already seen Ben Johnson’s team run all over the Eagles in South Philly this season. The key factor for this game could be the presence of two Hall of Fame caliber tackles. The 49ers lost Trent Williams (hamstring) on the first snap of the Week 17 victory over the Seahawks, and receiver Jauan Jennings was also injured in that game. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has recovered remarkably from a knee injury, but the game plan that needs to be successful requires the team to stay away from third-down situations and avoid turnovers. And the Eagles’ defense, which collapsed at the end of the season, needs to play much better than in Week 18. The 49ers were the best team in the league in EPA per play during the regular season, but their two worst performances of the season were against the Ravens and the Seahawks. The Eagles, on the other hand, were a playoff team by pure luck, and I think the 49ers’ offense should be able to score enough points to win this game. I don’t trust the Eagles to keep up with the 49ers. Prediction: 49ers 27, Eagles 24
