Key Weaknesses of NFL Playoff Teams
No team in the NFL is exempt from weaknesses. Even the best teams have areas that need improvement. This is especially true in a season like 2025, where there don’t seem to be any truly dominant teams and Super Bowl LX could be for anyone. Therefore, teams don’t want the biggest problem in their squad to resurface in the most important matches.Next, we analyze the weaknesses of each of the 12 teams qualified for the playoffs, in addition to the two possible winners of the AFC North (Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens) and the NFC South (Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers). Some of these statistics are particularly worrying due to the teams they could face in the postseason. Others are less problematic because potential opponents are not strong in these specific areas.
Contents
Key Weaknesses of NFL Playoff TeamsSeattle SeahawksDenver BroncosLos Angeles RamsSan Francisco 49ersPhiladelphia EaglesNew England PatriotsGreen Bay PackersBuffalo BillsHouston TexansJacksonville JaguarsLos Angeles ChargersBaltimore RavensChicago BearsPittsburgh SteelersTampa Bay BuccaneersCarolina Panthers
We will start with the Seattle Seahawks, in order of Super Bowl winning chances according to the Football Power Index (FPI) of Alofoke Deportes.
Seattle Seahawks
Probability of winning the Super Bowl according to FPI: 13.4% Concerning Weakness: Tight end coverage The Seahawks have one of the best defenses in the league, according to DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), and rank fourth according to FPI. However, they have a clear weakness in covering tight ends. Adjusting for the quality of the tight ends Seattle has faced, the team ranks 29th in yards allowed per game to this position. This is problematic when their main rival is the Rams, who frequently use three tight ends. The Rams’ tight ends combined for seven receptions, 88 yards, and a touchdown in Week 16. Safety Nick Emmanwori has been well-regarded in his rookie season, but his coverage numbers against tight ends are not impressive. The Seahawks might have to face high-level tight ends like George Kittle of the 49ers and Dallas Goedert of the Eagles if they want to reach the Super Bowl.Denver Broncos
Probability of winning the Super Bowl according to FPI: 12.1% Concerning Weakness: Defense against slot receivers Denver also has one of the best defenses in the NFL this season, led by a fierce pass rush that leads the league in sacks (64). However, if opponents can complete a pass, they can take advantage of the Broncos’ slot cornerbacks, Ja’Quan McMillian and Jahdae Barron. Denver ranks 27th in DVOA against passes to slot receivers, allowing 7.6 yards per attempt. The good news for the Broncos is that only two AFC playoff teams are in the top 10 in the number of pass attempts to slot receivers this season: the Chargers and themselves.
Los Angeles Rams
Probability of winning the Super Bowl according to FPI: 11.4% Concerning Weakness: Short-yardage ground defense The Rams’ ground defense is interesting in terms of the gains it allows and those it doesn’t. Before their Monday night loss in Week 17, the Rams ranked third with 1.0 second-level yards allowed per carry, which is defined as gains that occur between 5 and 10 yards after the line of scrimmage. They allow a minimum of 0.3 open-field yards per carry, which is defined as gains that occur 11 or more yards after the line of scrimmage. Avoiding long runs is where the Rams shine. However, on the line of scrimmage, Los Angeles has stopped opposing runners for a loss or no gain on just 12.2% of runs. Only Cincinnati does worse. That really becomes a problem when the opponent only needs one or two yards to move the chains or score. The Rams have allowed a conversion on 74% of short-yardage runs, defined as third down, fourth down, or on the goal line with 1 or 2 yards to go (which ranks them 26th). This is not a good weakness to have in this playoff field. Most of the Rams’ potential playoff opponents have converted runs into short yards more than 70% of the time this season, including Chicago, Seattle, San Francisco, Carolina, and Tampa Bay.San Francisco 49ers
Probability of winning the Super Bowl according to FPI: 10.5% Concerning weakness: Lack of pressure on the passer The 49ers have been hit by a large number of injuries. Most of the affected offensive players have returned to the lineup, unlike the defense. Among the players out of season are edge rushers Nick Bosa and Mykel Williams, who suffered anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) tears. As a result, the 49ers have had almost no pass rush this season. They rank 29th in pass rush win rate (30%) and last in pressure rate (25%). As a result, the Niners rank 25th in pass defense DVOA when not blitzing. (They are 17th when blitzing). Playing defensively without much pressure on the passer demands more from quarterback Brock Purdy and the 49ers’ offense to excel. So far, they have been able to do it.Philadelphia Eagles
Probability of winning the Super Bowl according to FPI: 8.5% Concerning Weakness: Quarterback Jalen Hurts facing the blitz For a long time, this would have been an easy choice to highlight Hurts’ struggles against zone coverage. However, he has played better against zone in recent weeks. On the season, Hurts ranks 16th in DVOA against zone, which compares favorably to his 13th ranking against man-to-man coverage.Instead, we should observe how Hurts has struggled with extra pass rushers. He is number 20 in DVOA against the blitz this season, dropping to number 30 if we only look at games since Week 10, with only 6.0 net yards per play. I’m not sure opponents have gotten the message here. Hurts has faced a blitz rate of 36% this season, the third in the NFL behind the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson and the Commanders’ Marcus Mariota. However, that rate has actually dropped to 28% since Week 10.
Most of the NFC playoff field isn’t particularly blitz-prone, with the Buccaneers being the clear exception. But teams like the Seahawks and Bears could blitz more if they know that’s a weakness for Philadelphia.
New England Patriots
Probability of winning the Super Bowl according to FPI: 6.4% Concerning Weakness: Quarterback Drake Maye after his first readOf course, Maye is a strong MVP candidate, and it’s difficult to find flaws in his game, but there is one. FTN Data tracks whether quarterbacks throw to their first read. On first-read throws, Maye ranks fifth in DVOA. However, if he has to move on to a later read, Maye drops to 22nd.
The problem is getting him off his first read. Maye is one of the best quarterbacks in the league against the blitz, and among quarterbacks who have played the entire season, only Jalen Hurts of Philadelphia and Sam Darnold of Seattle were taken off their first read less frequently. Among the AFC playoff contenders, there are two teams that are above average at taking the opposing quarterback off his first read: the Steelers and the Jaguars. And although the Broncos are only average at forcing second reads, they have the best defensive DVOA when they do.Green Bay Packers
Probability of winning the Super Bowl according to FPI: 6.2% Concerning Weakness: Defending the pass on later downs The Packers’ pass defense has been outstanding on first down. It ranks third in DVOA and allows a league-low 5.1 net yards per pass attempt. The problem arises on subsequent downs. On second, third, and fourth down, the Packers rank 26th in defensive DVOA and allow 5.9 net yards per pass attempt. It has been particularly bad since edge rusher Micah Parsons suffered an ACL tear, as the Packers have allowed 8.3 net yards per pass attempt on second to fourth down in their last three games. This is going to be a problem in the playoffs. On second down, three of the top four passing teams in the league are the Rams, Seahawks, and 49ers. And the best passing teams in the league on third down include the 49ers and the Eagles.Buffalo Bills
Probability of winning the Super Bowl according to FPI: 5.9% Worrying Weakness: Run Defense It’s pretty clear that to beat the Bills, you have to run against them. Buffalo’s undersized defense ranks 31st in run defense DVOA. Is there any particular type of run that works best? No, they all work. Against runs flagged by FTN Data as man-blocking (iso, duo, power), the Bills allow an average of 5.8 yards per carry, the worst in the league, and rank 29th in DVOA. Against runs flagged as zone-blocking, the Bills are better in yards per carry (4.9, ranking 29th) but worse in DVOA (31). The good news for the Bills is that the Colts, who rely heavily on the run, didn’t make the playoffs, and they handled the Steelers’ running game in Week 13. But the Ravens would be a bad matchup for them.
Houston Texans
Probability of winning the Super Bowl according to FPI: 5.8% Concerning Weakness: Offensive Line This one is very clear. Their offensive line ranks 30th in pass block win rate (55.4%) and 32nd in run block win rate (68.3%). And things haven’t improved over the course of the season. Since Week 10, the Texans rank 31st in pass block win rate (54.2%), and they slightly improved to 30th in run block win rate (68.7%). Additionally, left tackle Aireontae Ersery and left guard Tytus Howard are among the league’s most penalized players. It will be a problem in the postseason against fierce pass rush like that of the Broncos and possibly the Steelers, who rank in the top five in pass rush win rate.Jacksonville Jaguars
Probability of winning the Super Bowl according to FPI: 5.3% Concerning Weakness: Stalled Ground Game The Jaguars are on fire with a seven-game winning streak. Their passing game has been on fire since they acquired wide receiver Jakobi Meyers. And quarterback Trevor Lawrence is playing at the top of his game. The Jaguars ranked 21st in passing attack DVOA through Week 9, but since Week 10, they rank fifth. However, the ground game has completely slowed down. Jacksonville ranked sixth in DVOA through Week 9, but that dropped to 26th since Week 10. Excluding runs, the Jaguars have dropped from 4.5 yards per carry to 3.7 yards per carry since Week 10. Rookie Bhayshul Tuten should return from a finger injury for the playoffs, but Jacksonville really needs better blocking to stay on schedule when running the ball. The Jaguars will need to produce on the ground against defenses like the Chargers and Bills, who are better against the pass than the run.Los Angeles Chargers
Probability of winning the Super Bowl according to FPI: 4.7% Concerning Weakness: Tight end coverage The Chargers rank 27th in DVOA against tight ends, and this hasn’t improved in recent weeks. Opposing tight ends have a 77% catch rate against the Chargers since Week 9. The Chiefs’ Travis Kelce and the Eagles’ Dallas Goedert had 70-yard games against Los Angeles in recent weeks. The problem isn’t the great safety Derwin James Jr., but when the Chargers end up with a linebacker in coverage. They’ll have to avoid that when covering potential playoff opponents like Evan Engram of the Broncos, Hunter Henry of the Patriots, and Dalton Kincaid of the Bills.Baltimore Ravens
Probability of winning the Super Bowl according to FPI: 4.3% Concerning Weakness: Red zone passes The Ravens have been horrible this season when the field is condensed and there is less space to work with. Quarterback Lamar Jackson has been particularly bad, ranking last in both passing DVOA and EPA per pass dropback inside the 20-yard line. With the injuries he has suffered in 2025, Jackson has not had the mobility to do the magical things outside the pocket that have always given him an advantage in the red zone. And the Ravens don’t exactly compensate for it with a great running game, as they only rank 19th in rushing DVOA in the red zone. The good news for Baltimore is that the best red zone defenses this season are mainly NFC playoff teams. Denver (third) is a clear exception, but no other AFC team is in the top 10.
Chicago Bears
Probability of winning the Super Bowl according to FPI: 3.4% Concerning Weakness: Defense against slot receiversChicago’s defense hasn’t been as strong as Denver’s defense overall, but the Bears have the same weakness: defending against opposing slot receivers. Only the Jets allowed a worse DVOA to opposing slot receivers, and no other team has allowed more yards per attempt (9.1) or total touchdowns (13) than Chicago.
However, according to my coverage DVOA metric, the problem isn’t the primary slot defender, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who joined the team in Week 9. The problem is when opponents can get their slot receivers matched up against other defenders, primarily cornerback Nick McCloud, safety Jaquan Brisker, and linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. Most of Chicago’s potential playoff opponents rank pretty low in how often they throw to slot receivers, though Tampa Bay is an exception.Pittsburgh Steelers
Probability of winning the Super Bowl according to FPI: 1.2% Concerning Weakness: Reliance on short passes At 42 years old, quarterback Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have the arm he used to, and the Steelers’ passing game is designed to get the ball out quickly. Rodgers has an average target depth of just 6.1 yards, tied with the Browns’ Dillon Gabriel for the shortest in the league this season. Rodgers has thrown 86% of his passes 15 air yards or less, second behind Gabriel in this case.Why does this matter? First, the Steelers haven’t been particularly efficient in this short passing game. Rodgers’ DVOA on these passes is slightly below the NFL average. Second, most of the AFC playoff field is very strong against short passes. The top 10 defenses against short passes include Houston, Jacksonville, and Buffalo. The Broncos and Chargers are also above average.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Probability of winning the Super Bowl according to FPI: 0.6% Concerning Weakness: The defense has crumbled We don’t need to focus on a single opportunity, type of coverage, or even an aspect of Tampa Bay’s defense. Everything has fallen apart in the last few weeks. Until Week 8, the Bucs’ defensive DVOA was eighth against the pass and sixth against the run. Since their Week 9 bye, the Bucs are 27th against the pass and 22nd against the run. During the same time period, they have dropped from fourth to 17th in pass-rush win rate (35.3%). Their run stop rate is more or less the same, but the Bucs have allowed more yards on the second and third levels. There haven’t been any major personnel changes, just an overall decrease. And it could cost Tampa Bay a spot in the playoffs.
