Preliminary Analysis of the 2026 NFL Draft: Projections and Key Movements
As the 2025 college football regular season draws to a close and the 2025 NFL season is about to conclude, it’s the ideal time to examine the 2026 NFL Draft and present initial projections for the first 32 selections. This analysis, conducted by Alofoke Deportes, considers the current landscape and anticipates possible strategic moves.
It’s important to note that there is still considerable time before the draft begins on April 23 in Pittsburgh. Factors such as decisions by college players, early declarations, and pre-draft events like all-star games and the combine can significantly influence projections. In addition, team needs will evolve as the offseason approaches.
The draft order for this analysis is based on the rankings through Week 11. Several teams possess multiple first-round picks, suggesting potential strategic moves. Two additional trades are anticipated in the first round, which could significantly alter the selection order.
Expected Trades and First Round Projections
Here are the projections for the 32 first-round selections in 2026, starting with the projected trades that could reshape the top of the draft.
With two first-round picks and an additional second-round pick in 2026, thanks to the trades of Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, the Jets would seek to move up to the first position, currently held by the Titans. Given that the Titans selected quarterback Cam Ward in the 2025 draft, they might be willing to trade their position and accumulate draft capital to build around their young quarterback. In this deal, the Jets would send both first-round picks (numbers 4 and 28) and their 2027 second-round pick to the Titans.
1. New York Jets (via trade with TEN): Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana*
The Jets’ general manager, Darren Mougey, wouldn’t accumulate draft capital to watch other teams select quarterbacks ahead of them. The Jets would aggressively pursue Mendoza, a passer with great precision and timing, capable of dismantling defenses with surgical accuracy and sufficient mobility. Mendoza might not be in the same category as Caleb Williams, but he’s the best in this class and the Jets need to make a decision at that position. With Justin Fields recently a backup and Tyrod Taylor not being the long-term solution, Mendoza, with 30 touchdown passes and five interceptions, shows his care with the ball.
Projected Trade: The Browns trade positions with the Giants
Like the Titans, the Giants selected their quarterback of the future in 2025, Jaxson Dart, making them a candidate to move down. With the Browns in a situation of uncertainty at the quarterback position and with multiple first-round picks in the 2026 draft, Cleveland would send the third selection to the Giants to move up one position. New York would also receive third-round picks in 2026 and 2027 to move down to number 3.
The Browns, after multiple failed attempts to find a franchise quarterback, would go back to the drawing board. Moore, with 15 starts, has shown composure and precision, completing 72.8% of his passes for 2,190 yards and 21 touchdowns with five interceptions. Pairing him with Quinshon Judkins and Harold Fannin Jr. would give the Browns a young and energetic offense.0:42 Why Oregon’s Dante Moore tops Riddick’s 2026 QB prospect list. Louis Riddick details why Oregon’s Dante Moore tops his 2026 NFL Draft QB prospect list.
3. New York Giants (via trade with CLE): Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami*
Without the need for a quarterback, the Giants could acquire more draft capital. Mauigoa would be an immediate starter at right tackle. His ability to create space in the running game would boost the Giants.
To evaluate Ward, the Titans need a reliable receiver. Tyson is the long-play threat that Tennessee’s offense lacks.
5. Las Vegas Raiders: Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama*
Geno Smith hasn’t worked out in Las Vegas, and a quarterback position rebuild is looming. Simpson, with only 10 college starts, is playing with great composure and timing. His instincts and processing are at a starting level.
6. New Orleans Saints: Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State*
If the Saints move forward with Tyler Shough as quarterback, they will need an edge rusher and a wide receiver. Reese is one of the best players in the country. His ability to impact the game with an explosive first step would give a spark to the Saints’ defense.
7. Washington Commanders: Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami*
The Commanders need to improve their defense, especially at edge rusher and linebacker. Bain, despite double teams, has had a significant impact. His versatility and strength are valuable.
With Hendrickson as a free agent, the Bengals need to bolster their defense. Faulk, with his strength and speed, could be a great addition.
9. Arizona Cardinals: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State*
Downs is the best player available, and the Cardinals could use an upgrade at the safety position. Adding Downs, who has great range and the strength to play in the box, would make sense.
10. Los Angeles Rams (via ATL): Spencer Fano, OT, Utah*
The Rams’ offensive line needs to be rebuilt. Fano is a professional player with quick hands and well-developed instincts in pass protection. He is the type of right tackle around whom the Rams can build the next version of their line.
11. Miami Dolphins: Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee*
The Dolphins need an outside number 1 cornerback. McCoy, despite his injury, is considered the best cornerback in the class.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Peter Woods, DT, Clemson*
The Vikings could address the need for a defensive tackle. Woods, with his consistent play, could be a great addition.
Love would be a great addition to the Cowboys, who need a running back. His skills could complement the Cowboys’ offense.
14. Baltimore Ravens: David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech
The Ravens need impactful pass rushers. Bailey, the sack leader, has been a nightmare for offenses.
15. Kansas City Chiefs: Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon*
The decline in the Kansas City offense is due, in part, to the lack of an explosive running game and the diminished role of Travis Kelce. Sadiq, with his ability to gain yards after the catch, could thrive in Kelce’s role.
16. Houston Texans: Olaivavega Ioane, G, Penn State*
The Texans need to reinforce their offensive line. Ioane, the best interior lineman in this class, is a formidable blocker.
17. Carolina Panthers: Makai Lemon, WR, USC*
The Panthers need another receiver. Lemon, an efficient route runner, could be a great complement.
18. Detroit Lions: T.J. Parker, Edge, Clemson*
The Lions need a partner for Aidan Hutchinson on the defensive line. Parker, with his strength and length, could be the solution.
