2026 NFL Draft Analysis: Team Projections and Needs
The 2025 NFL regular season has concluded, which means the draft order for the 2026 NFL draft for the first 18 selections is already defined. The Raiders will have the first overall pick. Below, we explore possible scenarios and projections of how the draft will unfold, analyzing the needs of each team.It is important to remember that several months remain until the start of the draft, scheduled for April 23 in Pittsburgh. Furthermore, the 2025 college football season has not yet concluded, and some players may change their decision on whether or not to participate in the draft. We must also consider pre-draft events, such as all-star games and the combine, which can influence player rankings. Finally, the needs of each NFL team will continue to evolve as they evaluate their rosters and make signings in free agency.
For this analysis, the known selection order for picks 1 to 18 was used, and the Football Power Index (FPI) was employed to project the order of picks 19 to 32, covering the selections of the 14 teams that made the playoffs. It should be noted that four teams have multiple selections: the Rams (from the Falcons), the Jets (from the Colts), the Browns (from the Jaguars), and the Cowboys (from the Packers).Below, we present the projections for the 32 first-round selections in 2026, starting with a new bet at the quarterback position for Las Vegas.
(Last year’s players are indicated with an asterisk *)2026 Draft First Round Projections
- 1. Las Vegas Raiders (3-14)
Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana*
The Raiders haven’t selected a quarterback in the first round since 2007 (JaMarcus Russell). They desperately need a franchise quarterback after the Geno Smith trade didn’t work out. Mendoza offers a long-term solution for a franchise that has been searching for a quarterback since Derek Carr was released after the 2022 season. Mendoza’s composure, toughness, and precision stood out in his only season with the Hoosiers, where he won the Heisman Trophy, leading his team to a 14-0 record. With tight end Brock Bowers and running back Ashton Jeanty, the Raiders have the offensive pieces needed for Mendoza to thrive immediately.- 2. New York Jets (3-14)
Dante Moore, QB, Oregon*
With five first-round picks in the next two drafts, the Jets have a great opportunity to bolster a roster that lacks talent in several positions. The experiment with Justin Fields didn’t go as expected, so the Jets could part ways with him this offseason. Moore could offer them a smooth and poised operator who has the potential to be a high-level starter. He has not yet announced his intentions to declare for the draft, but if Moore decides to participate, he would be selected very high, and coach Aaron Glenn and general manager Darren Mougey could secure their franchise quarterback.- 3. Arizona Cardinals (3-14)
Francis Mauigoa, OT/G, Miami*
With the possible departure of Kyler Murray this offseason, the Cardinals have a big question mark at the quarterback position. However, with Mendoza and Moore already selected, Arizona could focus on the offensive line. Mauigoa is one of the strongest evaluations in this draft class, a consistent and solid lineman who measures 6 feet 6 inches and weighs 315 pounds. He is a model of consistency and would fit as a “plug-and-play” option on an offensive line with serious doubts at the right tackle position. Arizona’s current right tackle, Kelvin Beachum, is 36 years old and is about to become a free agent. The Cardinals’ offensive tackles finished last in run blocking percentage (69.9%), and Arizona allowed the third most sacks in the league (59).
- 4. Tennessee Titans (3-14)
Arvell Reese, Edge/LB, Ohio State*
The Titans lack talent throughout their roster and selected QB Cam Ward with the first pick of last draft, so they are in a position to choose the best player available. Reese is possibly the best player in the draft. He is explosive and plays with a lot of physicality. He alternated between linebacker and edge rusher this season, but he is best seen in the edge rusher role in the NFL. He would give Tennessee a talent boost on the defensive line to join defensive tackle, Jeffery Simmons. Reese played only 97 snaps on the edge, but his 18.5% pressure rate in that position placed him seventh in the FBS.- 5. New York Giants (4-13)
Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State*
The Giants’ main goal should be to get impact players around quarterback Jaxson Dart. With Malik Nabers recovering from a torn ACL and Wan’Dale Robinson about to become a free agent after a 1,014-yard season, the receiver position is a major need for New York. Tate is a polished receiver capable of running every route on the route tree. He has sure hands, can separate from any type of coverage, and makes plays downfield, as evidenced by his 17.1 yards per reception this season (32nd in the FBS). Tate would give Dart a true deep threat who can also work the intermediate levels of the field.- 6. Cleveland Browns (5-12)
Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State*
Unless they want to combine their two first-round picks to move up, the Browns won’t be able to draft a quarterback. But they do need receivers to join tight end Harold Fannin Jr. and veteran receiver Jerry Jeudy. Tyson is a creative route runner who can make catches outside the strike zone with his strong hands at the catch point. He is also capable of making big plays after the catch. Durability will be the main thing to consider with Tyson during the pre-draft process, as he has been affected by persistent injuries in each of the last two seasons, missing three games in 2025 due to a hamstring injury.- 7. Washington Commanders (5-12)
David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech
Washington only has two edge players (Dorance Armstrong and Javontae Jean-Baptiste) signed for next season, and both are recovering from season-ending injuries. The Commanders need young pass rushers, and Bailey was the most productive in the country, leading the FBS with 14.5 sacks this season. He also had 23 tackles for loss, and his pressure rate of 20.1% was the highest of all FBS defenders. Bailey’s excellent first-step quickness helps him easily beat blockers, and he is a robust defender with a diverse range of pass-rush moves and powerful hands. Bailey’s performance against Oregon in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals was one of the best I saw from any defender this season.- 8. New Orleans Saints (6-11)
Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame*
The Saints seem to have hit the mark with second-round quarterback Tyler Shough, and it’s time to get help in the backfield. Veteran running back Alvin Kamara will turn 31 before next season and will be in the final year of his contract in 2026, so New Orleans could add his heir and the best offensive playmaker in the draft in Love. He is explosive and can also be used by coach Kellen Moore in the passing game. The Saints had the lowest percentage of runs of 10 or more yards (7.8%). Love could fix that, after recording 39 runs of 10 or more yards this season, ranking fourth in the FBS.
- 9. Kansas City Chiefs (6-11)
Rueben Bain Jr., DL, Miami*
The Bain game is based on strength; he is a forceful defender who regularly overwhelms blockers at the point of attack. Able to play in positions 0-9, Bain can play across the defensive line and has shone in big moments during Miami’s current playoff run. At 6 feet 3 inches and 275 pounds, Bain’s measurements might not fit on every team’s wish list, but they would work well in Kansas City, where defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has preferred dense, powerful pass rushers. Bain had 8.5 sacks this season and would give a boost to the Chiefs’ pass rush, which finished with only 35 sacks in 2025, tied for 22nd in the NFL.- 10. Cincinnati Bengals (6-11)
Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State*
A safety hasn’t been selected in the top 10 since the Jets chose Jamal Adams with the sixth pick in 2017, but Downs is one of the top three players in this year’s class. His versatility, sure tackling, and instincts would eliminate many of the problems Cincinnati had on defense this season, as coordinator Al Golden’s defense conceded an average of 6.2 yards per play, the highest in the league. In contrast, Downs allowed only 3.6 yards per pass attempt in his coverage this season (the eleventh lowest in the FBS). With Geno Stone about to become an unrestricted free agent, Downs could fit well in the Bengals’ secondary.
- 11. Miami Dolphins (7-10)
Spencer Fano, OT, Utah*
Patrick Paul, Miami’s second-round pick in 2024, has become a key player at left tackle. But with 2020 first-round pick Austin Jackson struggling to stay healthy and heading into free agency after next season, the Dolphins need help at the other tackle spot. Fano’s light feet and movement skills ideally fit into Mike McDaniel’s fast-paced scheme. At 6-foot-6 and 302 pounds, Fano needs to add bulk to his frame, but his 1.1% pressure rate tied Mauigoa for the second-lowest allowed by an offensive tackle in the FBS this season.- 12. Dallas Cowboys (7-9-1)
Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State
The Cowboys desperately need defensive help, and Styles would give them a fundamental piece in the backbone of their defense, which allowed an average of 30.1 points per game in 2025, the highest in the league. It would be a massive upgrade over Kenneth Murray Jr., who struggled in every way imaginable this season after being acquired from the Titans. Styles plays an attacking style that utilizes his excellent instincts, range, and awareness. He is a run defender who wraps up and finishes, and a capable blitzer (six sacks in 2024) who can create negative plays in the backfield.- 13. Los Angeles Rams (from ATL)
Makai Lemon, WR, USC*
Davante Adams will turn 34 in December and is about to become a free agent after the 2026 season, so the Rams need to select a receiver who is ready to play immediately to maximize the championship window of quarterback Matthew Stafford, who turns 38 in February. Lemon could immediately join Adams and Puka Nacua. He has a high level of understanding of how to win against all types of coverage and makes contested catches. He had only one drop on 110 targets (79 receptions), and his 21 missed forced tackles ranked him 13th among FBS receivers. Lemon is labeled as a slot receiver, but he can play throughout the formation.
- 14. Baltimore Ravens (8-9)
Peter Woods, DT, Clemson*
Woods entered the season as one of the top prospects in the 2026 class, but he didn’t have the season many expected, finishing with only two sacks after recording three as a sophomore in 2024. But he is an explosive pocket-collapser who has the versatility to pressure from multiple positions. Woods needs to be more consistent, but he can penetrate the backfield and would give a boost to the Ravens’ defensive line, which was forced to rely on 36-year-old John Jenkins after Nnamdi Madubuike was sidelined early in the season with a neck injury.- 15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)
Keldric Faulk, Edge, Auburn*
The Bucs need reinforcements in their front seven to help Vita Vea and fifth-round revelation Elijah Roberts, and Faulk is intriguing with his 6-5, 285-pound frame. He can help instantly as a run defender; Faulk knows how to deploy his tools at the point of attack while stacking and shedding blockers with ease. His frame and playing style compare favorably to Mykel Williams and Greg Rousseau, but Faulk needs to expand his pass-rush repertoire. He also had only two sacks this season after recording seven in 2024, but scouts are still enamored with his potential.- 16. New York Jets (from IND)
Kayden McDonald, DT, Ohio State
After trading defensive tackle Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline, the Jets need to rebuild their defense from the inside out. McDonald would be a great start. He’s an energetic run defender who consistently creates chaos for opposing offenses. His 7.8% run stop percentage ranked second among FBS defensive linemen this season. McDonald can also be disruptive as a pass rusher (three sacks this season) and can push the interior of the pocket.- 17. Detroit Lions (9-8)
Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah*
It might be time for the Lions to develop a succession plan for left tackle Taylor Decker, who will turn 32 before next season and struggled with injuries in 2025. Detroit needs young talent on the offensive line, and Lomu is a 6-foot-6, 304-pound sophomore who is full of potential. He improved his consistency in pass protection this season, yielding only six pressures and zero sacks, but Lomu still needs to add strength to his frame to become a better run blocker.- 18. Minnesota Vikings (9-8)
Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU
Minnesota lacks young, high-potential players in the secondary, which Delane’s selection would solve. He is technically sound with an ingenious skill set, which would fit well into Brian Flores’ diverse scheme. Delane has the speed to turn and run with targets in man-to-man coverage, but his eyes in zone coverage are among the best of any cornerback in this year’s class. His allowed completion percentage of 27.8% was the lowest rate in the FBS, and he had 11 passes defended and two interceptions this season.Reminder: Picks 19-32 are based on ESPN’s Football Power Index projections for the playoffs, and the order will not be final until after Super Bowl LX on February 8.
- 19. Carolina Panthers (8-9)
Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon*
The Panthers have decisions to make regarding quarterback Bryce Young, as he is eligible for a contract extension this offseason. Carolina must also decide whether to exercise his fifth-year option for 2027. The Panthers hit on first-round receiver Tetairoa McMillan in the 2025 draft, and selecting Sadiq would give Young another playmaker while allowing Carolina to further evaluate the quarterback’s long-term fit with the franchise. Sadiq is the clear-cut No. 1 tight end in the class; he creates mismatches as a receiver (his eight touchdown receptions lead all FBS tight ends) and is a more-than-willing blocker in the running game.- 20. Chicago Bears (11-6)
Cashius Howell, Edge, Texas A&M
The Bears’ pass rush was inconsistent this season, as they were 31st in pass rush win percentage (28.8%) and tied for 22nd in sacks (35 sacks). Howell would give Chicago an energetic and tenacious edge rusher, as his 11.5 sacks this season were the fourth-most in the FBS. Howell’s size (6 feet 2 inches, 248 pounds) and arm length might scare some teams, but the Bears need a disruptive pass rusher to complement veteran Montez Sweat. Howell would be exactly that.
- 21. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M*
Pittsburgh has their number 1 receiver in DK Metcalf, but the depth chart is pretty rough after that, with Calvin Austin III and Marquez Valdes-Scantling set to become free agents and veteran Adam Thielen potentially retiring. Concepcion would have the opportunity to make an instant impact as the number 2 option for the Steelers, especially since he can play in the slot and outside. He’s a shifty route runner who can speed up and slow down to create separation on route stems. But Concepcion needs to be more consistent with his hands, as he dropped seven passes this season.- 22. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)
Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama*
I’ve spoken with several scouts about Proctor in recent weeks, and opinions on the 6-foot-7-inch, 366-pound lineman remain very mixed. Many believe he will be selected in the top 25 due to his size and flashes of improved play, and several referred to Proctor’s potential as a guard.
