In an annual analysis, the NFL teams most likely to improve for the upcoming season were examined. This column has proven to be accurate on more than 81% of occasions. Last year, the decline of the Ravens, Giants, and Browns was correctly predicted. The Steelers team defied expectations, maintaining their 10-7 record. The Eagles, on the other hand, exceeded predictions, improving their 11-6 record to 14-3 and dominating the NFC playoffs, culminating in a victory at Super Bowl LX. The Eagles’ success is attributed to significant improvements in their level of play, driven by better players and better coaching. General Manager Howie Roseman signed Saquon Barkley and Zack Baun, and in the draft selected Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, who became stars. The Eagles also made strong improvements to their coaching staff. In addition, they had a season with few injuries and a favorable schedule. Despite predicting the Eagles’ decline in the previous season, the 2024 experience underscores the difficulty of predicting team performance. Adding high-caliber players and dramatically improving the game are factors that outweigh any data analysis.
Kansas City Chiefs
Record in 2024: 15-2Point difference in 2024: +592024 record in games decided by seven points or less: 10-0Projected calendar strength, via ESPN’s FPI: Sixth most difficult in the NFL The Chiefs achieved a 10-0 record in games decided by a single score, surpassing the previous record held by the Vikings. Their victories were often close, with key plays at crucial moments. Some victories were very close, such as the game against the Ravens, which was decided by a play in the last second, and against the Bengals, where a pass interference penalty saved the Chiefs. In week 3, the Chiefs stopped the Falcons in the red zone on two consecutive occasions. In week 6, the Chiefs won in overtime against the Buccaneers. Against the Broncos, a blocked field goal attempt secured the victory. In week 12, a field goal in the last second gave them the victory against the Panthers. In week 13, the Chiefs survived the Raiders, and in week 14, a missed field goal by the Chargers gave them the division title. Despite these results, the Chiefs’ point differential was relatively low, suggesting that their success might not be sustainable. While they have Mahomes, talent on both sides of the ball, and an experienced coaching staff, the team has some weaknesses, such as the offensive line and the possible suspension of Rice. In addition, Kelce showed underperformance in his 35th season. Luck in close games might also not repeat itself. Despite these concerns, the Chiefs remain Super Bowl contenders.Minnesota Vikings
Record in 2024: 14-3Point Differential in 2024: +100
2024 record in games decided by seven points or less: 8-1Projected strength of schedule, via ESPN’s FPI: Fourth most difficult in the NFL The 2022 Vikings were a clear example of a team that could decline, with a 13-4 record despite being outscored by three points. In contrast, the 2024 Vikings were much better, with the seventh-best DVOA in the league and an aggressive defense. The Vikings had an 8-1 record in close games, but this success is unlikely to be repeated. The defense, which led the league in turnovers, may not maintain that level of play. The Vikings’ defense, despite being the most veteran in the league, could suffer due to the departure of key players and the age of some of its members. Although improvements have been made to the offensive line, some of the new additions come from injuries or have not had consistent performance. J.J. McCarthy’s return as quarterback is an important factor. Despite this, history suggests the Vikings could struggle to maintain their level of success.
