Deep Analysis: Historical Trends in the NFL and Their Implications
It’s common at the beginning of the season to talk about the pace of some statistics. For example, “Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua is on pace for 178 receptions and 2,100 yards.” However, the historical context of these projections is rarely considered. What teams and players have had similar starts in the past?
Over time, performance tends to regress to the mean. Teams and players who start strong, slow down, and those who struggle at the beginning, tend to improve. It is crucial to compare current performance with what happened in similar periods of previous seasons, instead of extrapolations to full seasons.
For this analysis, DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) is used. All seasons since 1978 have been reviewed to assess how teams performed in a given week. The rankings are based solely on the first four games, adjusting according to the opponents faced in that span.
Although there aren’t many teams with exceptional historical performance this season, there are some notable trends. In particular, the most outstanding teams aren’t showing a level of historical greatness.
The Seahawks surprise by leading the DVOA, driven by their defense. However, historically, they rank 32nd since 1978 after four weeks, and they are not even among the 100 best defenses. The Bills, with the number 1 offense this season, rank 71st among offenses since 1978.
This season is notable for the presence of particularly weak defenses, a slow start for the defending champions, and Nacua’s threat to the receptions record. Below, we will explore how these performances compare to history and what we can expect for the rest of the season.
Defenses in Trouble: Cowboys and Giants
The Dallas Cowboys have the eighth-worst pass defense.
The Cowboys’ defense has been a problem, especially in stopping opposing quarterbacks. Although it wasn’t noticeable in the first week, the trend became evident. The Giants’ Russell Wilson had 450 yards in an overtime game in week 2. The Bears’ Caleb Williams shined with 298 yards and four touchdowns in week 3, and the Packers’ Jordan Love added 337 yards in week 4.
The Cowboys have conceded the most passing yards (1,189), passing touchdowns (10, tied with Chicago), and net yards per pass attempt (8.5, with no other team exceeding 8.0) this season. This puts them in eighth place among the worst pass defenses.
The situation was predictable after Micah Parsons’ transfer before the season, but not to this level, especially considering the quality of the players in the secondary. Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland, both All-Pro, have been unable to avoid the situation.
The pressure on the quarterback has also been poor, with the Cowboys ranked 27th in pass rush win rate (30.4%). In addition, Matt Eberflus’ new defensive strategy, which involves more zone coverage, has not worked.
A regression to the mean is expected. No team since 1978 has finished a full season with a pass defense as bad as Dallas’s so far. The highest average of net yards per pass allowed was 8.2 by the Baltimore Colts in 1981.
Most teams with terrible defenses in the first four games ended the season among the worst defenses. Finding a team with a terrible pass defense in the first four games that finished the season with a winning record is difficult. The 2016 Detroit Lions are an example, finishing 9-7.
As for the future, the Cowboys have two first-round picks in the 2026 draft to rebuild their defense. Although the 2023 Broncos improved to have the fourth-best defense in 2024, most of these bad defenses stayed that way all season and also the following year.
The New York Giants have the third-worst run defense.
This situation might surprise many. Although official statistics don’t place the Giants as the worst run defense, with 612 yards allowed, they are tied with the Bears for last place in yards per attempt (6.1). Excluding quarterback runs and kneel-downs at the end of the half, the Giants allow 6.2 yards per carry this season.
The Giants have allowed only one runner with more than 100 yards this season, but they allow good efficiency to almost everyone who runs against them.
It’s interesting to note that the Giants rank 12th in the success rate in run defense (31.1%). However, runners are succeeding at the second level, with the Giants allowing 1.83 yards in open field, more than 10 yards after the line of scrimmage. Only the Chicago defense is worse.
The yards per carry are expected to improve. The highest average of yards per carry allowed since 1978 was 5.4 by the 2022 Chargers. The 1983 Houston Oilers have the worst run defense by DVOA in a full season, with 20.6%.
The success rate in defending against the run suggests that the Giants’ defense is playing better than the results indicate. They are likely to improve their ability to stop opposing running backs.
Teams with terrible run defenses early in the season don’t always end up with bad seasons. The Giants’ success will depend in part on their rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart and the absence of Malik Nabers.
The Eagles and the Bengals: Unexpected Situations
The Philadelphia Eagles are the seventh worst team with a 4-0 record.
The Eagles rank 17th in offensive DVOA and 14th in defensive DVOA, even after adjusting for a difficult schedule. This puts them in 12th place overall, below several teams with a 2-2 record.
Part of the problem, according to DVOA, is that the Eagles have benefited from three blocked kicks, including two returned for touchdowns. These plays are not counted in the DVOA formula because they are considered “non-predictive plays”.
The Eagles have been outgained in their four wins. The only other undefeated team to be outgained in every game were the 2012 Cardinals, who only won one more game in the season.
Four of the previous nine teams that were weak with a 4-0 record made it to the Super Bowl. The Eagles have a start that can lead them to a successful season, even if their underlying statistics are not the best.
ESPN Football Power Index still ranks the Eagles fourth in the NFL. ESPN’s playoff simulation gives them a 12.9% chance of winning the Super Bowl, the best in the NFC. The Eagles should be fine despite their “slow start”.
The Cincinnati Bengals are the fourth worst team with a 2-2 record.
Browning has struggled, with a QBR of 42.4, and the Bengals have suffered two consecutive losses. Their first two wins were close, and their defense hasn’t been good (27th in DVOA). Only the Titans have a worse point differential than the Bengals (-58) this season.
The Bengals might not be that bad for the entire season. They still have receivers like Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and Browning isn’t the worst quarterback in the league. However, only the 1992 Colts managed a winning record, and it was without their starting quarterback Jeff George for the first three games. The other teams finished with double-digit losses. Without Burrow as quarterback for most of the 2025 season, it’s hard to imagine the Bengals avoiding 10 or more losses.
Puka Nacua: Breaking Receiving Records
Nacua has tied the record for most receptions in NFL history.
Nacua started the season with an exceptional performance, totaling 10 receptions for 130 yards against Houston. He continued with 8 receptions for 91 yards against Tennessee and 11 receptions for 112 yards against Philadelphia.
It is important to note that none of the players who had the most receptions in the first four games set the record for total receptions in a season. Michael Thomas holds that record, but he achieved it in 2019 with 149 receptions, not in 2018, when he began the season with 42 receptions in four games. In 2019, Thomas had 34 receptions in the first four games.
Nacua set the rookie receptions record two seasons ago, with 105. Cooper Kupp had 145 receptions in 2021. If Nacua plays all 17 games, it is absolutely feasible that he will set the record in a season.
However, the schedule will be more difficult for the Rams’ offense. So far, Los Angeles has played against defenses with an average schedule. But in the last 13 games, only the Colts will play against a more difficult schedule of defenses, according to current DVOA rankings.
