NFL: 5 Declining Teams According to Barnwell – Who Will Miss Playoffs?

For months, I’ve been eagerly awaiting this column. Last Monday, I presented my annual analysis of the five teams most likely to improve in the upcoming NFL season. In the years I’ve been writing this column, those teams have improved 31 out of 38 times, representing over 81% of the time.Each year, I also break down the teams most likely to decline. This column has had a virtually identical success rate; after last year, it’s 30 of 38. Last year I went 3-2, correctly predicting that the Ravens (who fell from 13-4 to 12-5), the Giants (6-11 to 3-14), and the Browns (11-6 to 3-14) would lose more games.The two teams that defied my predictions will remain in my mind for a while. The Steelers once again defied the odds, maintaining their 10-7 record. They are responsible for two of those eight times a team didn’t decline, and the Steelers were one win away from doing it for a third time in 2022. Spoiler: They are not on my list below.The other team did more than maintain their record from the previous season. The Eagles didn’t decline from their 11-6 mark in 2023. They finished with a 14-3 record, then swept through the NFC playoffs and defeated the Chiefs in Super Bowl LX. When I ranked the top 25 teams of the last 25 years earlier this offseason, I put the 2024 Eagles at number 4. After their bye week early in the season, they were comfortably the best team in the league.So, what did I miss? A massive improvement in their underlying game level, driven by better players and training. This column uses data from 2024 and underlying metrics to estimate the true performance level of each team. Although all teams make changes in the offseason, history tells us that information from the previous season helps predict what will happen the following year.The Eagles’ changes proved to be more impactful than almost any other in recent memory. It’s rare for a team to sign a player in free agency who becomes a first-team All-Pro. General manager Howie Roseman signed two: running back Saquon Barkley and linebacker Zack Baun. After cornerback was a major problem in 2023, Roseman used his first two draft picks on Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. I wrote last year that rookie cornerbacks often struggle in their debut seasons, which is true, but it often doesn’t always mean. Mitchell and DeJean were stars, with the Eagles transforming from one of the worst defenses in the league by EPA per play during their 2-2 start to the best in the league once DeJean entered the lineup in the slot.The Eagles also made strong improvements at coordinators, as Vic Fangio and Kellen Moore were excellent. Let’s add to that one of the healthiest seasons in the league by adjusted games lost, a 7-2 record in one-score games, and the easiest schedule, and it was a special campaign.

Should I have seen it coming? Maybe. Barkley went from what could have been the league’s worst situation for running backs to possibly the best, although the concern for him is usually health, not ability. It was a revelation last season. Fangio and Moore had essentially been fired from their previous jobs, but Fangio was excellent with the Bears and 49ers, and the Eagles were a disaster with Matt Patricia as defensive coordinator at the end of 2023. I thought they might improve on defense, but I didn’t expect them to be the best in the league for most of the season. They had one of the league’s easiest projected schedules, which I shouldn’t have discounted. If you saw Baun become the league’s most productive linebacker, well, I suspect there are quite a few NFL teams that would like to hire you.

Of course, the Eagles were also in the decline column in 2023, when they fell from 14-3 to 11-6 and were then defeated in the postseason. (Guess which season I heard the most about on social media). The same data that was unreliable and completely wrong about Philadelphia in 2024 generated concerns about their health and defense and suggested they would have “10 to 12 wins” in 2023.

Being right in 2023 doesn’t make me less wrong about 2024, but it reinforces how difficult it is to project next season. The Browns and Eagles had the same record in 2023. Data is often helpful in trying to make predictions, but it’s no match for a team that adds four Pro Bowl-plus players and dramatically improves its game. All I can do is tip my hat.

Teams to analyze:

• Chiefs
• Colts
• Commanders
• Lions
• Vikings

Kansas City Chiefs

Record in 2024: 15-2Point Differential in 2024: +592024 Record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 10-0Projected strength of schedule, according to ESPN’s FPI: Sixth most difficult in the NFLTwo years after the Vikings became the first team in league history to have a 9-0 record in games decided by seven points or less, the Chiefs took things a step further. Andy Reid’s team had an unprecedented 10-0 record in one-score games last season. And as always, while there are situations where a late score can make a game seem closer than it really was, the Chiefs were really making opponents slip on banana peels and get knocked out at the most opportune moments. Let’s relive how close many of Kansas City’s victories were:In the first game of the season, a touchdown pass from Lamar Jackson to Isaiah Likely as time expired appeared to extend the game. As the Ravens were about to line up for a two-point conversion, a review found that Likely was out of bounds by half a toenail, ending the contest. The following week, the Chiefs faced a fourth-and-16 to advance with 48 seconds remaining against the Bengals, only to be bailed out by a 29-yard pass interference penalty on rookie safety Daijahn Anthony. (Before conspiracy theorists chime in, note that a 21-yard conversion on the previous fourth-and-6 was nullified by an illegal hands to the face penalty on Chiefs tackle Wanya Morris). The penalty set up a game-winning 51-yard field goal by Harrison Butker.In Week 3, defending a five-point lead in the final quarter, the Chiefs managed two red-zone stops on consecutive drives to stop the Falcons, including a controversial no-call on what appeared to be pass interference against Kyle Pitts. Six weeks later, Baker Mayfield’s two-minute drill produced a touchdown pass with 30 seconds left. Unlike the Ravens in Week 1, Tampa Bay coach Todd Bowles opted to kick an extra point and send the game to overtime, where the Chiefs won the coin toss and marched down the field for a touchdown. The following week, the Broncos were in a position to seal a convincing victory over their divisional rivals, but Leo Chenal blocked a 35-yard field goal attempt that would have won the game for Denver, giving the Chiefs a 16-14 victory.In Week 12, the Panthers marched down the field for a touchdown and a two-point conversion to tie the game, aided by a pair of pass interference penalties against Kansas City. With 1:46 to play, a 33-yard carry by Patrick Mahomes put the Chiefs in range for a short field goal to win at the buzzer. In Week 13, the Chiefs somehow survived a couple of Raiders drives to maintain a two-point lead in the final quarter. Daniel Carlson missed a 58-yard field goal that would have given Las Vegas the lead with 2:21 to play, and after Kansas City went three-and-out and took only 14 seconds off the clock, the Raiders advanced to a position for another field goal, only to fumble the ball on an aborted snap with 14 seconds remaining. In Week 14, after a field goal by Cameron Dicker gave the Chargers a two-point lead with 4:39 to play, Mahomes & Co. converted three consecutive third-down opportunities to march down the field and consume the time. Then, a field goal by Matthew Wright bounced off the uprights and went in, securing the ninth consecutive division title.A couple of seven-point victories over the Chargers and Raiders weren’t that close. Maybe it’s unfair to include the Panthers game when Carolina never had the ball with a chance to tie the game or take the lead. There’s no guarantee that the Buccaneers or Ravens would have converted their two-point conversions, or that the Raiders or Broncos would have made their field goals to win their respective games. Maybe it’s not fair to treat these games as a collective combination of Chiefs magic and spectacular luck.And yet, at the same time, you really have to blindly believe to treat this as proof of a dominant team that turns on the accelerator when it’s most needed. Was it Mahomes and the offense making key plays at the exact moment? Some weeks, yes. However, against the Ravens, Falcons, Bucs, Panthers, and Raiders, the Chiefs had the opportunity to run out the clock and secure victories with first downs, but they couldn’t sustain their drives, giving the ball back to the opposing team. Most of those drives were three-and-out.

Was Steve Spagnuolo’s opportunistic defense shutting the door with a well-timed blitz or a great play, as Kansas City did against the Bills in the AFC title game? Again, only sometimes. The Chiefs squandered late leads on defense against the Bucs and Panthers and were an inch away from doing so against the Ravens. The Falcons twice advanced to the red zone and were disappointed by a missed call in the end zone that would have given them first and goal on the 1-yard line. The Broncos converted three third downs to get into field goal range before Chenal’s block. Las Vegas quarterback Aidan O’Connell completed five straight passes to get into field goal range before the missed exchange. That’s not the resume of a great defense that stops teams when the game is on the line, even if the results ended up looking good for Kansas City.

Do the Chiefs have a psychic influence at the end of games over the rest of the league? It depends on when you look. They had an 8-0 record in one-score games in 2021 and 10-0 in those same contests last season. In Mahomes’ other seasons as a starter, they had a 25-17 record in those one-score contests with him on the field, including a 3-4 mark in 2023. That total, 43-17, is a spectacular record in one-score games, but even treating Mahomes as an outlier in relation to the rest of the league (and I’m willing to believe that possibility), 10-0 is impossibly unsustainable.

The Chiefs had the point differential of a 10.2-win team, which was due in part to a 38-0 loss to the Broncos in Week 18, when Mahomes and virtually all other stars took most (or all) of the game off. If you take away that game, the Chiefs finished 15-1 with a point differential of 10.7 wins. All other teams with more than 14 wins since 1989 had a point differential of 100 points or more, with their average point differential reaching 190 points per 17 games. Kansas City had a point differential of more than 59.The 2024 Chiefs finished the season with the largest gap between their actual record and Pythagorean expected record of any team since 1989, just ahead of the 2022 Vikings. The 30 teams with the largest gap between those two figures during that time period declined by an average of 3.2 wins per 17 games. They went from exceeding their Pythagorean expectation by 3.2 wins to just 0.1 wins per team the following season. In other words, for the vast majority of these teams, they were unable to defy what history tells us about point differential for more than one season.

Could the Chiefs be the exception? Of course. Mahomes is the best quarterback of his generation. There is significant talent on both sides of the ball, and the Reid and Spagnuolo brain trust are back. The Chiefs spent all of last season dealing with a tourniquet at left tackle, a problem they believe they have solved after hiring Jaylon Moore and selecting Josh Simmons in the first round. They did not have wide receiver Rashee Rice for most of the season after a knee injury in September, and Isiah Pacheco, with a fibula fracture, neutralized the running game. They converted just under 54% of their trips to the red zone into touchdowns, the worst rate they have recorded in a single season during the Mahomes era. As we saw with the Eagles last season, one way to defy what the numbers suggest is to massively improve your underlying level of play.

Even if the Chiefs improve play by play, there’s a big gap between the team they were a year ago and what their record suggested. The left side of their line is a big question mark between the tackle and guard, where Kingsley Suamataia could establish himself after failing at tackle. They lost an underrated veteran in safety Justin Reid, who was one of the best tacklers in the league during his time in Kansas City. Rice is likely to miss time with a possible suspension, and tight end Travis Kelce took a big step back in his 35-year-old season. Opposing kickers hit a league-low 81.8% of their kicks against Kansas City in 2024, including misses and blocks at the most inopportune moments. Can the Chiefs really count on that again?Of course, all of this isn’t to suggest that the Chiefs will be anything less than a Super Bowl contender. They were on this very list before the 2021 season, when they fell from 14-2 to 12-5. That team was a few yards away from returning to the Super Bowl. Twelve wins and another deep playoff run also seem like a reasonable expectation for this team.

Minnesota Vikings

Record in 2024: 14-3

Point differential in 2024: +100

2024 record in games decided by seven or fewer points: 8-1Projected strength of schedule, according to ESPN’s FPI: Fourth most difficult in the NFLAfter mentioning the 2022 Vikings in the Chiefs conversation, perhaps it’s appropriate that Minnesota returns as the next team on this list. The 2022 Vikings were one of the most obvious decline candidates I’ve seen, as they finished with a 13-4 record while being outscored by three points. That team finished 28th in DVOA, suggesting that, on a play-by-play basis, they were one of the worst teams in the league. They were immediately eliminated from the playoffs at home by a Giants team that ranked 23rd by the same metric.The 2024 Vikings were different. For one thing, they were much better. They finished with a 14-3 record with the seventh-best DVOA in the league. They played the ninth-toughest schedule. The 2022 Vikings were passengers on defense, with coordinator Ed Donatell presenting one of the most confusingly passive units in recent memory. The 2024 Vikings were the league’s most entertaining defense and perhaps the most aggressive, throwing everything from Cover-0 blitzes to eight-man drop coverages from the same pre-snap looks and confusing opposing quarterbacks in the process.The Vikings had an 8-1 record in one-score games last season. If they had done that after the 2022 season, Kevin O’Connell would be hailed as the game management wizard of his generation. Instead, they had a 4-8 record in one-score games between those two seasons, and although things might have been different if Kirk Cousins had stayed healthy, four of those losses occurred in the first five weeks, when Cousins was on the field. O’Connell is still an excellent coach, but he probably won’t win 88% of his close games again.Let’s talk about that defense. Can the Vikings maintain their level of play? While I recognize they have a great front seven and an excellent coordinator, I’d be a little nervous. They led the league in turnovers (33) and were second in turnover rate (16.6% of opposing drives), just behind the Bills. Defense is harder to sustain than offense, and successful defenses built around high turnover margins are even harder to sustain from year to year. The Bills were able to do that between 2023 and 2024, but the other teams directly below them in turnover rate two years ago were the 49ers, Bears, Cowboys, Ravens, and Saints, none of whom were able to maintain their turnover rate in 2024. Their defenses took a significant step back.That’s not a one-year trend either. Looking from 2000 to 2023 and the teams that ranked in the top five in turnovers per series, as the Vikings did a year ago, only 17% of those teams finished in the top five again the following season. Their average rank in turnover rate was 15. Minnesota could certainly field an excellent defense again, but it probably won’t lead the league in turnovers.

Are there reasons to think the Vikings will simply present better defensive talent? I’m not sure. They were the fifth healthiest defense in the league a year ago by adjusted games lost, according to the new FTN Football Almanac, and they presented the league’s most veteran defense based on play-weighted age. In fact, with the fifth most veteran offense in the league, they were the league’s most veteran team on a play-by-play basis. That’s not inherently disqualifying, but it’s a reality of where they were with their roster construction.

The Vikings were able to get very good performances from three veteran cornerbacks in Byron Murphy, Stephon Gilmore, and Shaq Griffin. Gilmore and Griffin are gone, so they will be younger at the position, but the players replacing the three veterans haven’t been great elsewhere. Isaiah Rodgers was buried on the depth chart in Philadelphia, while Jeff Okudah and Tavierre Thomas have bounced around the league with limited results. Minnesota is better equipped to handle the departure of starting safety Cam Bynum, who left as part of the various free agent swaps that the Colts and Vikings made this offseason, but it’s fair to say that expectations for the secondary have to be lower than what Vikings fans saw last season.They will try to make up for it on the front, where… they got old by importing two new defensive tackles on the wrong side of 30. Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave were stars early in their careers, but combined to play only 11 games last season due to injuries. Allen and Hargrave are big changes, and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has generally done an excellent job in free agency, so there are reasons to be optimistic that the Vikings’ front will be even more devastating than it was in 2024.Adofo-Mensah also improved the interior of the offensive line, bringing in Ryan Kelly and Will Fries from Indianapolis before using his first-round pick on guard Donovan Jackson. The interior line has been a weakness seemingly since the days of Steve Hutchinson, so I can’t have any problem with the idea of improving those spots. In practice, they should be better than the Ed Ingrams and Garrett Bradburys of the world, but Fries is coming off a leg fracture, while Kelly is 32 and hasn’t been the same player he was during his peak seasons. The Vikings also get left tackle Christian Darrisaw back after he suffered a season-ending ACL and MCL tear midway through last season.The most notable player returning from injury is quarterback J.J. McCarthy. He will replace Sam Darnold, who held the 14th spot in Total QBR.