The prediction game in American football involves evaluating how our forecasts perform. It’s easy to make a prediction, but it’s also crucial to monitor them. In the preseason, I made a bold prediction for each team as part of our 2025 season preview. These predictions were risky, things I considered possible but that would be surprises. Five weeks into the season, we’ve learned a lot. It’s time to review those predictions and see how we’re doing. Which ones are on track? Which ones could still happen? And which ones were so far off that we could make a new one? In some cases, five weeks mean everything has changed. In others, not so much. In fact… a preseason prediction has already come true! Let’s delve deeper to see how we stand for the 32 teams.
Fulfilled
New York GiantsOriginal prediction: Quarterback Jaxson Dart will make his first start no later than Week 5. Why it happened: Dart started in Week 4 after a slow start from veteran quarterback Russell Wilson, leading to an 0-3 start to the season for the Giants. The rookie won in his debut against the Chargers, though he struggled last Sunday with two interceptions and a total QBR of 50.2 (the ninth worst in Week 5) in a loss to the Saints.On the way
Buffalo Bills
Original prediction: Tight end Dalton Kincaid will record at least 900 receiving yards. Why he’s on pace: Kincaid is on pace to reach 976 yards (287 in five games). There’s still a long way to go, especially since Kincaid has only run routes on 57% of the Bills’ dropbacks so far this season, but he’s catching everything. Kincaid has a reception rate above expectation at +15%, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, the best of all tight ends with at least 20 targets.Carolina Panthers
Original prediction: The Panthers will record the fewest sacks in the league. Why it’s on the way: They’ve sacked their opponents only five times, tied with the Bears for the fewest in the league, but Chicago has only played four games with their Week 5 bye. Carolina ranks 29th in pass win rate and isn’t expected to be ahead in many games as the sixth-worst team in ESPN’s Football Power Index. That matters because sacks happen more often when a team is winning.Chicago BearsOriginal prediction: The Bears will finish in the top six in pass block win rate. Why it’s on the way: Chicago ranks fourth with a 69% pass block win rate. There are two main reasons for the change: The incorporation of Joe Thuney has been huge, with the former Chiefs guard ranking third in PBWR at his position. Darnell Wright has shown significant improvement, ranking 12th among tackles with a 92% PBWR, compared to 44% during his disappointing 2024 campaign (88%). That the Bears go from a third-level action play rate (19%) to above average (27%) also helps.Cincinnati BengalsOriginal prediction: The Bengals won’t make the playoffs… again. Why he’s on the way: Joe Burrow suffered a toe injury that required surgery, which sidelined him for at least three months. The Bengals are 0-3 since then, having lost each game by at least 13 points. Backup quarterback Jake Browning has played poorly in place of Burrow, recording a QBR of 35.3. Because of that, the Bengals only have a 9.2% chance of making the playoffs. I was quite optimistic about Browning at the time of Burrow’s injury, but it hasn’t worked out, and the Bengals acquired Joe Flacco from the Browns on Tuesday.Los Angeles RamsOriginal prediction: Wide receiver Puka Nacua will lead the NFL in receiving yards. Why he’s on the rise: He’s leading the league with 588 yards, 54 ahead of Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Nacua has been outrageous, ranking first in target rate (39.1%) among wide receivers with at least 100 routes run, second in yards per route (3.7), second in air yards completed per route (2.4), first in yards after the catch (208), and first in receptions above expectation, according to Next Gen Stats (8.4). Nacua needs both himself and quarterback Matthew Stafford to stay healthy, but he’s off to an excellent start.Minnesota Vikings
Original prediction: Running back Jordan Mason will record at least 1,100 rushing yards. Why he’s on the way: Mason is on his way to reaching 1,098, so forgive me for rounding up. Outside of two fumbles, Mason has been what the Vikings hoped for when they traded for him: an effective runner who could combine with the receiving ability of veteran Aaron Jones Sr (although Jones has missed the last few games due to a hamstring injury). Mason averages 4.7 yards per carry and has 71 rushing yards over expected, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, the eighth-most among running backs. The Vikings’ offense hasn’t been as prolific as they hoped, but returning to average efficiency would help Mason in the future.Philadelphia EaglesOriginal prediction: Defensive tackle Moro Ojomo, who began the season without any career sacks, will record at least five sacks and finish in the top 10 in pass rush win rate.Why he’s on the way: Ojomo has two sacks and is tied for 10th among defensive tackles with a 13% pass rush win rate. The funny thing is that this prediction was conceived in part by the belief that the Eagles’ situation fueled Milton Williams’ numbers and that his replacement would be put in a great position. And while playing defensive tackle alongside Jalen Carter could put players in favorable situations, Williams is also thriving outside of that role in New England.
Pittsburgh SteelersOriginal prediction: Defensive tackle Derrick Harmon will lead rookie defensive tackles in sacks. Why it’s on the way: Considering Harmon missed the first two games of the season with an MCL sprain, I’m surprised this is still in range. But a catch by Harmon puts him in a multi-person tie for the rookie defensive tackle catch lead with Jamaree Caldwell and Omarr Norman-Lott. Harmon’s 6% pass win rate and 9% pressure rate don’t make me too optimistic, but then again, he’s playing on a good defensive line. Maybe that’s enough to beat the competition.San Francisco 49ersOriginal prediction: Edge rusher Bryce Huff will record at least nine sacks.Why he’s on the way: Huff is back. After a year lost in the Philadelphia desert, Huff has resurfaced in San Francisco playing like his old self for his old coach, Robert Saleh. Huff has three sacks this season, putting him on pace to surpass 10. Huff’s 19% pass win rate ranks 20th among edge rushers. While Nick Bosa’s season-ending ACL injury makes it less likely that Huff’s sack rate will stay very high, it could eventually mean more playing time and more opportunities to get there.
Arizona CardinalsOriginal prediction: Nickel cornerback Garrett Williams will lead all slot defenders in yards per coverage snap allowed. Why there’s still a chance: The good news? Williams ranks second in this statistic among slot defenders with at least 50 coverage snaps (0.4, behind only the Chargers’ Derwin James Jr.). The bad news? A knee injury in Week 2 landed Williams on the injured list. Still, it’s within the realm of possibility that he could return to action and lead the category, especially after his good start.Baltimore RavensOriginal prediction: Running back Keaton Mitchell will have at least four games with more than 20 fantasy points. Why there’s still a chance: I know it seems silly to hold onto this prediction considering Mitchell was inactive for the Ravens’ first four games, but I am. Mitchell has been inactive behind Derrick Henry, receiving option Justice Hill, and kick returner Rasheen Ali. But if Henry were to get injured, I believe Mitchell would be the new top running back on early downs. I had imagined that he would reach this prediction by working more with Henry and breaking some long runs, referencing his 201 rushing yards above expectation on 47 carries in 2023, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, and I suppose that’s still possible. And the potential that Mitchell presents is the reason why (perhaps stubbornly) I’m still holding onto him in a couple of fantasy leagues.Cleveland Browns
Original prediction: The Browns will trade guards Joel Bitonio or Wyatt Teller during the season. Why there’s still a possibility: The trade deadline hasn’t arrived yet! And Cleveland has been, as expected, a disappointment and a non-contender. Both players are veterans in the last year of their contracts, and the team has Teven Jenkins as a capable interior substitute. It would make sense to trade at least one of Bitonio or Teller.Dallas CowboysOriginal prediction: WR KaVontae Turpin will record multiple kick returns for touchdowns this season. Why there’s still a chance: He hasn’t yet scored a kick return for a touchdown, but returns have increased greatly in 2025 thanks to a touchback rule change. As a result, Turpin already has 16 kick returns after recording 27 last season. And he has recorded 91 return yards above expectation, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. This could still happen.Denver BroncosOriginal prediction: CB Riley Moss will record at least five interceptions in a breakout third season. Why there’s still a possibility: This is a truly remote possibility considering Moss doesn’t have an interception this season and his 1.3 yards per coverage snap, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, is higher than the average for an outside cornerback. But there’s a number that makes me hold onto some hope: no cornerback in the NFL has been targeted more than Moss (40 targets). Those extra targets are extra interception opportunities. Still, I doubt this will happen.Detroit LionsOriginal prediction: Edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson will record at least 100 pass-rush wins, something that has only happened twice since the metric was created in 2017.Why there’s still a chance: Hutchinson has had a good start with five catches in five games, but he’s still a long way from the pace of 100 wins. He has 19 passing wins to date, which puts him on track to reach 65. That would be a good number, but not historic.
So, why is there still a possibility? Hutchinson took a couple of games to get going, which is understandable, considering he was returning after the season-ending leg injury he suffered a year ago, and he has shown in the past that he is capable of putting up big numbers in streaks (like when he recorded 36 passing touchdowns in five games last season).Green Bay PackersOriginal prediction: Linebacker Edgerrin Cooper will be a first or second team All-Pro. Why there’s still a chance: He’s posted solid numbers, but not quite like he did in a semi-small sample last season. His 37% run-stop win rate is a bit above average for an off-ball linebacker, but nowhere near his 46% from last year. Cooper’s 0.9 yards per coverage snap are average for a linebacker, and his 0.5 sacks are nothing to write home about. But it’s a long season and he’s a promising young player. There’s still time.Kansas City ChiefsOriginal prediction: The Chiefs will have at least 12 plays that exceed 40 yards in the regular season. Why there’s still a chance: Kansas City has recorded two of those plays this season, so this is still very unlikely. Even so, that’s half of last year’s season total. Also, we’ll see if the return of wide receiver Rashee Rice after his six-game suspension opens up more field plays.Los Angeles ChargersOriginal prediction: Offensive tackle Joe Alt will win Protector of the Year. Why there’s still a chance: I felt really good about this call before Alt suffered a high right ankle sprain. Alt, who moved to left tackle after the season-ending patellar tendon rupture for Rashawn Slater, ranks fifth among tackles in pass block win rate (95.3%) and sixth in run block win rate (82.0%). That’s a terrifically good combination. The problem is the injury. If Alt misses another game, that would be two games completely missed plus most of a third. It’s still feasible to win an award after missing one or two games, but it becomes more unlikely with each additional game missed. Hopefully, for Alt, the Chargers, and this prediction, he’ll be back on the field soon.New Orleans SaintsOriginal prediction: WR Chris Olave will be among the top 15 wide receivers in total fantasy points. Why there’s still a chance: It’s not that far off. Olave is ranked 23rd among wide receivers in fantasy points with 61.4. But I think there’s a good reason to believe he’ll move up the ranks as the season progresses. Olave is second in expected fantasy points, according to Mike Clay of ESPN.New York JetsOriginal prediction: The Jets will lead the league in expected rushing rate. Why there’s still a chance: They have a rush rate over expected of 8%, which ranks fifth in the NFL. That’s very close to the lead. (The Saints are at 10%.) And I don’t see any reason for that to change, as Justin Fields is still the quarterback. Remember, we’re looking at the rush rate over expected, so the Jets can still lead the category even if they continue to lose in games.Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Original prediction: Edge rusher Yaya Diaby will record double-digit sacks in a breakout season. Why there’s still a chance: With only one Diaby capture this season, I feel like I should probably rule this out. But… I’m clinging to my optimism, as he has a 20% pass win rate on the edge (tied for 17th) and an electric get-off. He crosses the line of scrimmage in 0.75 seconds on average, the fifth-best among all players with at least 80 pass rushes. I still think Diaby has a chance in Todd Bowles’ blitz defense.Washington CommandersOriginal prediction: The Commanders will finish below .500. Why there’s still a chance: The Commanders are 3-2, but that includes two games (and a loss) without Jayden Daniels at quarterback. Daniels has a QBR of 45.4 so far, a disappointment after his rookie season. But he’s only played three games, and the defense has been better than expected: 16th in EPA per play (0.03) and surprisingly sixth in pass win rate (45.4%). I think it’s unlikely the Commanders finish below .500 now, but it’s the NFL. An 8-9 or 7-10 season is very much within the realm of possibility.
