Defense wins championships. Although the phrase, which many parents tried to instill, is not always entirely accurate. Healthy, balanced, and sometimes lucky teams are the ones that truly triumph. If we focus on both sides of the ball, it is generally the offensive teams that emerge victorious. In the last 15 NFL seasons, of the 30 teams that reached the Super Bowl, 27 had an average or above average offense. The league average in points per drive during that period was 1.9, and only the 2015 Broncos and the 2012 Ravens reached the Super Bowl below that mark. Defensively, we see more teams below average. Eleven of those 30 Super Bowl participants were below average in defensive EPA (Expected Points Added) per play. This season, three teams are looking to break that trend: the Texans, the Broncos, and the Seahawks. While the offenses of all three have had their bright moments, with C.J. Stroud and the Texans playing their best football, Sam Darnold and Seattle unstoppable in the first half of the season, and Bo Nix leading spectacular comebacks with the Broncos, their offenses rank 23rd, 10th, and 15th respectively in EPA per play. However, defensively, these teams not only stand out, but also outperform the rest. Seattle leads in points per drive allowed, Houston is second, and Denver third. In first down conversion allowed, Houston leads, Denver is second, and Seattle third. Defense doesn’t always win championships, but this season, it could be different. Denver and Seattle secured the top spot in their respective conferences, giving them the home-field advantage after a first-round bye. Houston, as the fifth seed in the AFC, is the hottest team heading into the postseason, with nine straight wins. This year, the playoff landscape isn’t dominated by fearsome offenses, as many of the biggest individual threats at the quarterback position, such as Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow, failed to qualify. In recent years, a defensive revolution has been promised on several occasions. The emergence of Vic Fangio as the first answer to Sean McVay in 2018 was a pivotal moment. Since Fangio, Brandon Staley and the two-high safety look emerged, culminating in a defensive start in 2024 that made people doubt the future of American football. Although it’s still early to talk about a revolution, it’s clear that defenses are fighting back. The initiative was led by Vance Joseph, Mike Macdonald and DeMeco Ryans, as well as Fangio, Staley, Brian Flores, Lou Anarumo, Steve Spagnuolo and Jim Schwartz. Each one has approached the problems of the modern NFL differently, and each one is learning from the others. The beauty of defense lies in its diversity. While the paths to offensive excellence in the modern NFL are well-defined, the paths to defensive excellence are more varied. In this playoff landscape, dominated by elite defenses, we will explore how they are achieving it.
Denver Broncos
Vance Joseph has been in charge of the defense since 2016, and his identity is clear: aggressiveness. His units have used blitz on at least 30% of the opponent’s pass attempts in each of the last nine seasons and have been among the top five teams in blitz rate in each of the last eight seasons. Unlike his contemporaries at the defensive summit, Joseph sends the pressure. However, even experienced coordinators must adapt. Opponents study strategies and focus on trends. Offensive schemes change, and suddenly, the blitz strategy that worked in 2018 now allows for easy passes in 2025. After a difficult start in 2023, where the Broncos’ defense ranked 27th in EPA per play and 28th in points allowed per series, Joseph focused on his style, incorporating Fangio’s principles. With a star cornerback like Pat Surtain II, a competent CB2 like Riley Moss, and a standout young player in the slot like Ja’Quan McMillian, Joseph began to use more man-to-man coverage. The Broncos went from 28% man coverage in 2023 to 39% in the current season. In 2025, the Broncos allowed an astonishing 4.4 yards per play in man coverage. Joseph has talked about how he thinks about man coverage in the current league. “I don’t call a lot of man coverage. What we do is mainly pressure up front with matchup principles in the back,” Joseph said in November. “It’s like playing a box-and-one defense in basketball. It zones inside and matches outside. The key to playing great defense in this league is the ability to have different structures. If you can get the defenders close to the receivers without giving that ‘man’ label, that’s the experience.”We can find many examples of Joseph’s box-and-one coverage, which maximizes the competitive advantage offered by Surtain. In a play against the Jaguars in Week 16, Surtain is in man coverage against Brian Thomas Jr. Denver sends a blitz and leaves five players in coverage. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence quickly identifies the one-on-one on the sideline, but Surtain is anticipating Thomas’s route. Because the offense isolated Thomas, Surtain can isolate him in turn, chasing him across the field. The Broncos can use additional players to cover the other side of the formation.
The synergy between Joseph’s pressure schemes and deeper coverage is what has elevated Denver’s defense to new heights in 2025. In a play against the Chiefs in Week 11, Joseph lines up seven potential pass rushers at the line of scrimmage. Mahomes knows McMillian is rushing towards him and has to get rid of the ball. The Broncos have three defenders over two inside routes, creating a triangle around Xavier Worthy’s route. Joseph achieved these numbers in part because he trusts Moss in man coverage on Rashee Rice. Cooper’s synergy helps Moss. Joseph’s aggressiveness is key. Denver finished the season with a 10.3% sack rate on opponent’s pass attempts. They are the ninth team this century to achieve this. Denver’s defense forces quarterbacks to step up into the pocket.
