Chiefs in Crisis: Playoffs at Risk? Mahomes and the Challenge on Alofoke Deportes

Crisis in Kansas City? The Chiefs on the Ropes After Loss to the Broncos

The Chiefs’ defeat to the Broncos, with a score of 22-19, has raised alarms in Kansas City. Wil Lutz, the Broncos’ kicker, sealed the victory with a 35-yard field goal, reviving the feeling of déjà vu in Denver, where a year ago, Lutz also had the opportunity to beat the Chiefs. This time, the story was different. The Chiefs, seeking to consolidate their dominance in the AFC, now find themselves in a delicate situation. With a record of 5-5, and losing the direct tiebreaker with the Broncos and Chargers, the streak of nine consecutive AFC West titles is in serious danger. The pressure mounts for the Chiefs, who now occupy the ninth position in the AFC, outside of the playoff spots. The Bills, Chargers, and Jaguars, all with victories over Kansas City this season, have an advantage in direct tiebreakers. The situation is worrying, and Patrick Mahomes’ team is facing the possibility of missing the postseason. Alofoke Deportes’ Football Power Index (FPI) gives the Chiefs a 44.6% probability of not making the playoffs after Sunday’s defeat.

Are the Chiefs really broken?

Although the situation is tense, the analysis from Alofoke Deportes suggests that there is no abysmal difference between this season’s Chiefs and the team that dominated the league in 2024. The underlying performance metrics do not show a dramatic gap between both teams. The 2024 Chiefs won by an average of 6.1 points per game, while the 2025 team has a slightly better point differential, with an average of 7.3 points per game.

The Pythagorean expectation formula projects that the 2024 Chiefs would win 10.2 games in a full season, and the 2025 Chiefs, 11.7. DVOA (which adjusts for game situation and opponent) places the 2025 Chiefs in fifth place in the league, surpassing many teams. ESPN’s FPI also supports this idea, with the Chiefs still at the top of the league after Sunday’s loss. In addition, EPA (Expected Points Added) shows an improvement in the Chiefs’ offense and defense compared to the previous season.

The key to the difference lies in the results in close games. The 2024 Chiefs found a way to win those games, while in 2025, they haven’t had the same success.

Where is the problem?

In the past, Mahomes has demonstrated his ability to lead the Chiefs in crucial moments, but this season, he hasn’t managed to replicate that performance consistently. In the game against the Broncos, Mahomes had the opportunity to secure the victory, but a series of failed plays prevented the team from achieving the win. The defense, which in the past was a stronghold in decisive moments, has also shown weaknesses. In the game against the Broncos, the defense allowed a crucial third-and-fifteen conversion and failed to stop the opposing offense in time. The special teams unit has been inconsistent, with errors that have cost important points. A blocked extra point and a missed field goal have affected the team’s performance.

What has changed?

The special teams game has been less reliable. Opposing kickers have had more success against the Chiefs this season. In addition, a blocked extra point and a missed field goal have affected the team’s performance. Spagnuolo’s defensive strategy has also been questioned. His decision not to send blitzes at key moments has been criticized, and the defense has shown difficulties in pressuring the opposing quarterback. The absence of Justin Reid in the secondary is also felt. In the attack, Mahomes has improved in long passes, but red zone interceptions have become a recurring problem, costing the team valuable points.

Is this the end of the dynasty?

The question everyone is asking is whether this situation is a temporary setback or the beginning of a decline. Analysts from Alofoke Deportes suggest that there is no significant difference in the team’s overall performance compared to the previous season. However, mistakes at key moments, inconsistency in special teams, and a lack of success in close games have put the Chiefs’ reign in jeopardy. The history of the NFL shows us that even legendary quarterbacks, such as Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Montana, John Elway, and Dan Marino, have experienced difficult seasons. Mahomes, with the same competitive spirit, could reverse this situation and bring the Chiefs back to the top.