Deep Dive into the 2026 NFL Draft: Who are the Quarterbacks to Watch?
The 2026 NFL draft is shaping up to be a challenge for teams looking for a quarterback. Unlike the 2024 draft, and similar to the 2025 draft, the 2026 class presents a peculiar situation. Although there is talent, the depth might not satisfy the needs of all teams with urgency at the position. The current situation suggests that several teams might be tempted to make risky decisions in the early rounds, driven by the need for a franchise quarterback. However, the growing trend of players returning to college, taking advantage of NIL (name, image, and likeness) benefits, could influence team strategies. Will general managers opt for patience, waiting for the 2027 class? To analyze this type of quarterbacks, we use the QBASE 2.0 projections, a model that combines Andrew Healy’s analysis and Alexandre Olbrecht and Jeremy Rosen’s functional mobility model. This model considers passing statistics adjusted to the quality of the team and opponents, years as a starter, running ability, and penalizes players with a single outstanding year. Here are the projections for five quarterbacks who could be selected in the first three rounds, according to ESPN’s Scouts Inc. rankings.Projections for the Class of 2026
Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
Scouts Inc. Rating: 2 Mendoza, Heisman Trophy winner and national champion, could be the first draft pick. His trajectory resembles that of Joe Burrow, with a meteoric rise in his final college year. In 2025, Mendoza threw for 3,535 yards and 41 touchdowns. However, his performance doesn’t match Burrow’s stats, and the QBASE 2.0 model penalizes one-year players. Despite this, Mendoza is a valuable prospect, and the chances of another quarterback on this list becoming an elite starter are low, estimated at only 15.2%.Ty Simpson, Alabama
Scouts Inc. Rating: 37 Given the need for quarterbacks on several teams and the high probability that Mendoza will be selected first, Simpson could be chosen in the first round. In 2025, he threw for 3,567 yards and 28 touchdowns. However, his limited experience and lack of outstanding statistics could make him a risky pick.Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
Scouts Inc. Rating: 87 A concerning aspect for Nussmeier is his average of -2.2 yards per carry. This statistic suggests that he is not only not very mobile, but also prone to sacks. NFL history shows that quarterbacks with these characteristics often struggle to establish themselves as starters.Carson Beck, Miami
Scouts Inc. Ranking: 118 Beck suffered an elbow injury that forced him to miss part of the season. He decided to stay one more year in college, but his statistics decreased compared to his 2023 season at Georgia.Drew Allar, Penn State
Scouts Inc. Rating: 131 Allar is a prospect with mobility, but he is not a true dual-threat quarterback. Furthermore, his completion percentage and his 2025 numbers showed a regression. Although he has high potential, he also presents a high risk of failure.
