The Minnesota Timberwolves resurged strongly after a complicated end to February. Following a loss to the Utah Jazz, the team found itself in a difficult situation. With a record of 32-29, they occupied the ninth position in the Western Conference, and the trade of Karl-Anthony Towns seemed not to have yielded the expected results.
However, March brought a radical change to the Timberwolves’ game. In the remainder of the regular season, the team achieved an impressive 17-4 record, securing the sixth seed and leaving behind the uncertainty of the play-in. They defeated the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors, eliminating figures like LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Jimmy Butler, and even Stephen Curry, to advance to the Western Conference Finals.
Despite losing the first game of the finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Timberwolves have proven to be a team to be reckoned with. They have the opportunity to become the third number 6 seed in NBA history to reach the finals, a feat only achieved by the Houston Rockets in 1995 (champions) and in 1981 (runners-up).
We analyze how the Timberwolves achieved this transformation, the stars that shone, and how the Thunder, the best-performing team, managed to neutralize them.
A new offensive power
Since March 1st, the Timberwolves have recorded the second-best record (17-4) and point differential (plus 11.4) in the NBA. Although they benefited from a favorable schedule, their performance was a reflection of their strengths, rather than the weaknesses of their rivals.
The key to this success was the offense. After the transfer of Rudy Gobert in 2022, the Timberwolves focused on defense. However, it was the offense that propelled them. Their offense improved notably, moving from 13th at the end of February to second in March and April, only surpassed by the Thunder.
The Timberwolves’ offense improved significantly due to their effectiveness near the basket. During their streak, they took the fewest mid-range shots in the league, prioritizing attacking the basket. This strategy continued in the playoffs, where they ranked second in field goal percentage near the basket and last in mid-range shots.
In addition, they improved their effectiveness in finishing plays near the basket. They went from 21st in field goal percentage on dunks and layups before March to sixth place after that date.
Randle finds his rhythm
A player who symbolizes the rise of the Timberwolves is Julius Randle, who, after Towns’ departure, struggled to find his place. Despite a not-so-favorable playoff history, Randle was always a consistent player in the regular season.
However, Randle is not a direct replacement for Towns. He is a better passer, but a less effective shooter. Until March, he struggled to fit into Minnesota’s offensive system. But upon returning from injury, Randle notably improved his shooting, both from two and three-point range, a trend that continued in the playoffs.
Before March, Randle averaged 0.92 points per isolation, but after that date, he averaged 1.12 points, which put him among the best scorers in the league.
Donte DiVincenzo also improved as the season progressed. After returning from an injury, DiVincenzo achieved an impressive 45% three-point shooting percentage.
How OKC Neutralizes the Wolves
The team with the best performance since March is, precisely, the Thunder, with a record of 20-3 and a point differential of plus 13.3. This comparison underscores the difficult matchup the Timberwolves face. The Thunder limited the Timberwolves’ offense, scoring only 20 points in the paint in the first game.
Oklahoma City’s perimeter defense is superior to that of the Lakers and Warriors, which allows them to make it difficult for the Timberwolves’ attempts near the basket. The Thunder are willing to concede three-point shots, and the Timberwolves will need to make the most of their opportunities.
For Minnesota to beat the Thunder and reach the final, three factors must be met:
- Randle must maintain his best level.
- Role players must improve their shooting effectiveness.
- Edwards must lead the team.
Edwards will face a tough defense, but he will need to improve his shooting efficiency. The Thunder already have the best interior defense in the league. If Edwards fails to overcome that defense, he won’t be able to score enough to threaten them.
The Timberwolves have the opportunity to achieve it, but the Thunder have proven to be a formidable rival.
