A decade after conquering the first of their four titles that marked a dynasty, the Golden State Warriors seem to have been surpassed by the rest of the Western Conference. Expectations for next season suggest a challenging outlook.
According to projections, the Warriors’ chances of winning the West are in seventh place, surpassed by teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder, the current champions, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, and LA Clippers. This position reflects the reality of a team that was seeded number 7 last season and could present the most veteran starting lineup in NBA history.
However, underestimating the Warriors could be a mistake. Despite the challenges, the Golden State team is shaping up to be one of the most dangerous in the West, even at this stage of their trajectory. They could even compete with the Thunder, the most recent team at the top.¿Están siendo subestimados los Warriors esta temporada? (Troy Taormina-Imagn Images)
Kevin Pelton’s projections place the Warriors in second place in the NBA, with a forecast of 56 wins, suggesting they are closer to the top of the West than the play-in zone. The key to this discrepancy lies in the impact of Jimmy Butler’s arrival, which transformed the team into one of the best in the league during the half-season he shared with the team, and in the improvements made during the offseason.
The early playoff exit shouldn’t mask the team’s remarkable transformation. Before Butler’s signing, the Warriors had a 25-26 record. After his debut, the team ranked first in defensive efficiency and third in net efficiency. With Curry and Butler together for the entire season, the Warriors are expected to maintain a high level of performance.
Continuity is another key factor. Twelve of the thirteen players with the most minutes in the 2024-25 postseason will return, and the addition of Al Horford, coming from the Boston Celtics, further strengthens the team.La llegada de Al Horford a Golden State es crucial y proporciona a Curry un pívot en el que puede confiar. (Foto de Brian Fluharty/Getty Images)
Horford’s Impact
The arrival of Horford is crucial for the Warriors, as Curry has never played with a center of his caliber. Horford, with his ability to shoot three-pointers, will provide balance alongside Butler and Green, who may be reluctant to shoot. In addition, Horford is a superior defender and playmaker to other centers who have played with Curry, making him an ideal complement to the Warriors’ lineup. The combination of Butler, Green, and Horford in the defensive zone has great potential.
A solid defense is as important to the Warriors as Curry’s three-pointers. In 2021-22, the season they won the title, they finished second in defensive efficiency. Last year, they led the league in defensive efficiency after Butler’s arrival.
A balanced team
It is expected that Golden State will improve on offense this season. If Curry is on the court, the offense works perfectly, but if he is on the bench, the performance drops. However, Butler stabilizes the team. Age and availability could be factors. Curry has averaged 15 games missed per season, and Butler has not reached the 65-game threshold since 2018-19.
Jonathan Kuminga could play a significant role as the top scoring option in the minutes without Curry or Butler. Kuminga could help facilitate a mid-season trade. Kuminga is the only Warriors player with a salary impact between $12 and $25 million this season, which would provide the necessary salary for Golden State to land another significant deal by the deadline.
Five Warriors players, Curry, Butler, Green, Horford, and Brandin Podziemski, are among the top 10% of the league’s most impactful players, according to the advanced statistic xRAPM. The Warriors also have a variety of role players on the perimeter, such as Hield, Kuminga, Gary Payton II, Moses Moody, De’Anthony Melton, in addition to Post and Trayce Jackson-Davis.
The rest of the Western Conference
The biggest challenge for the Warriors might not be their roster, but the context surrounding them. The top of the West is much stronger than in 2022. However, there are big concerns for each team in the conference. Fred VanVleet’s injury could affect the Rockets. Minnesota depends on veterans and inexperienced youngsters. The Lakers have a short rotation and a potentially problematic defense. The Clippers face the same age doubts as the Warriors.
Even the Thunder could have a hard time defeating Golden State in a possible playoff matchup. The Warriors have played well against the Thunder in the last two seasons. The Warriors would need to overcome a series of challenges, including the competition and their own age issues, to have a chance. With James Wiseman out and Kuminga about to leave, the Warriors’ plan focuses on maximizing Curry’s remaining opportunities.
