Thunder vs Pacers: Epic Final in Game 7 of the NBA Finals!

The Legend is Forged in Game 7: Thunder vs. Pacers in the NBA Finals

Game 7s are moments where legends are born. Games with little margin for error and everything at stake, which are etched in history, especially in the playoffs, where they are uncommon. Since the merger of the NBA-ABA at the beginning of the 1976-77 season, there have only been eight defining games for the NBA title. This Sunday night, that number will increase to nine, when the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers face off in Game 7 of the NBA Finals. It will be the first time the league’s championship round has reached this stage since 2016. That game, at the very least, is on the list of the best in sports history, with LeBron James leading the Cleveland Cavaliers in a comeback from a 3-1 deficit to dethrone the Golden State Warriors, who had won 73 games, on their own court. The Thunder have been waiting for their first title since they moved from Seattle to Oklahoma City 17 years ago. The franchise has left behind the history of the SuperSonics. After several failed attempts, including an appearance in the NBA Finals in 2012 and appearances in the conference finals in 2014 and 2016, Oklahoma City had the seventh-most wins in NBA history (68) this season. If the Thunder win the title this year, they will be the fifth-best team in the history of the sport in terms of wins. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, for his part, would enter a select category if he manages to win the championship after winning the scoring title and the league’s regular season Most Valuable Player award, something that only Shaquille O’Neal, Michael Jordan, and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar have achieved. The Thunder were expected to be here all season. However, the same cannot be said for their opponents, as a victory for Indiana would crown one of the most unexpected runs towards a championship in the NBA. The Pacers have completed a historic comeback in each of the four rounds of the playoffs, including their star point guard Tyrese Haliburton, who has achieved an unparalleled streak of clutch shots, along with Indiana’s ability to wear down their opponents. Coach Rick Carlisle, who led a similarly constructed Dallas Mavericks team to a title against a heavily favored Miami Heat led by James in 2011, has already won seven Finals games as an “underdog”, the most in NBA history. Indiana will also seek its first NBA championship, after reaching the Finals with Reggie Miller leading the way 25 years ago. They won a couple of ABA championships with Hall of Famers Mel Daniels and Roger Brown in the 1970s. The Pacers and the Thunder will be 48 minutes away from immortality when they take the court on Sunday night. There’s only one sure thing: no matter what happens, the game will never be forgotten.

Game Keys: Home Advantage and Controlled Chaos

The keys for the Thunder: The home-court advantage. Give the local fans a reason to keep cheering. The Thunder earned the right to host the most important game of the season by achieving 68 wins and the best record in the league. The Paycom Center has been a very difficult place for opponents to play in this postseason. The Thunder have a 10-2 home record, with nine double-digit wins, including victories by margins of 30 and 32 points in the elimination games in the last two rounds. Oklahoma City fans, a small market with a single major league franchise, provide a true home-court advantage that Jalen Williams has compared to a high school football powerhouse, the kind of program that makes an entire city revolve around it. The stands will be full of people wearing the same jerseys when warm-ups begin. They will be loud, providing the Thunder with “the wind at our backs,” as coach Mark Daigneault says. The keys for the Pacers: Controlled chaos. Limit turnovers and control the pace. It’s easier said than done against a defense as aggressive as the Thunder’s, but the Pacers have been at their best when they’ve managed to win the turnover battle and prevent Oklahoma City from getting out in transition. The results are twofold. Not turning the ball over allows the Pacers to attempt more field goals instead of ending with empty possessions and prevents the Thunder from getting easy baskets in transition, which makes their offense thrive. The Pacers want a controlled chaotic game in their favor, similar to Game 6, when Indiana was the team running down the court while Oklahoma City stalled trying to execute a half-court offense repeatedly.

Key Players for Game 7

Oklahoma City Thunder

Alex Caruso is the only proven NBA champion on the Thunder’s roster, the veteran leader of this team, and a player who was a dominant force in Oklahoma City’s previous Game 7 victory against the Denver Nuggets. Caruso wreaked havoc as the primary defender against three-time MVP Nikola Jokic that afternoon, a major factor in the 23 turnovers that the Thunder converted into 37 points. He had a +40 in 26 minutes. He’s one of the toughest competitors in the NBA, a guy who lives for these kinds of high-pressure situations. Caruso has made his mark in Oklahoma City’s playoff run so far. Count on that continuing in Game 7.

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers’ depth has been their strength throughout this playoff run and T.J. McConnell has stepped up with a fantastic performance in this series. His high-energy style during 19 minutes per game has provided a spark in every game he participates in, and he averages 11.3 points and 4.5 assists in the series with 54% shooting. Haliburton played through a calf injury in a high-stakes Game 6 and was effective, but not as mobile as usual, meaning the Pacers will need a variety of ball-handlers to help maintain their pace and run their offense. McConnell is almost certainly not going to win the Finals MVP with Haliburton and Pascal Siakam’s efforts standing out for Indiana throughout the series, but the way McConnell and the bench unit have energized the team, and outperformed their OKC reserve counterparts, is a major reason why the Pacers have a chance to win this series.

How Will We Remember This Final?

If the Thunder win Game 7, we will remember their title as _____. Crossing the finish line for a historic season, and taking the first step in a potential dynastic run. Oklahoma City statistically emerges as one of the most dominant teams of all time, with the best point differential in regular season history. The only champion that finished the season with more total wins than the Thunder’s 84, if Oklahoma City completes the job, were the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls. Oklahoma City is in this position with almost all of its core made up of rising talent. Gilgeous-Alexander is an MVP who is just entering his prime. Jalen Williams is an All-NBA teammate who is still in the early stages of his development, as is Chet Holmgren, who has All-NBA and Defensive Player of the Year potential. General manager Sam Presti still has an unprecedented treasure chest of first-round draft picks to use to continue adding talent and perhaps eventually replace some key players if difficult roster decisions result in departures. This should be the first of many Junes in which this edition of the Thunder is the center of attention in the basketball world. If the Pacers win Game 7, we will remember their title as _____. The biggest upset in NBA history. Indiana entered the playoffs as the number 4 seed in the Eastern Conference. Their journey through the East was filled with buzzer-beaters and exciting comebacks, as the Pacers defied the odds, and still began the Finals facing the longest odds of a team in 20 years in the championship series. They won’t be the favorites in any of the seven games of this series, but everything prepares Indiana at the door of one of the most improbable championships in league history. The Pacers don’t look like a regular championship contender, but they’ve gone through the playoffs disproving any idea that they aren’t.

The Matchups and Adjustments That Will Decide the Champion

Historical Advantage of Locality

In 12 playoff games at Paycom Center, the Thunder have a point differential of +20.6, which is the second-largest home playoff winning margin in history (minimum 5 games played), behind the +20.7 of the 1995-96 Utah Jazz. The Thunder’s only home playoff losses were in Game 1 against Indiana and Game 1 against the Nuggets, and they led in both games until the final seconds. The occasional shooting woes that have plagued Oklahoma City in the playoffs haven’t been an issue at home. The Thunder have made only 29.9% of their three-point attempts away from home in the playoffs, performing well below their expected mark of 36.5%, according to GeniusIQ. But at home, they’ve made 37.5% of their threes, a perfect match with their expected mark of 37.5% on threes. Except for Jalen Williams, all members of the Thunder’s rotation have shot better from distance at home.

According to GeniusIQ, Pascal Siakam defended Jalen Williams in 13 half-court matchups in Game 6.

An Unusual Low-Scoring Game

Don’t expect many points on Sunday because, historically, Game 7s in the Finals have been low-scoring. The last five ended 93-89, 95-88, 83-79, 81-74, and 90-84, respectively. Since 1988, when the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Detroit Pistons 108-105, no team has reached three digits in a Game 7 of the Finals.

Contents

The Legend is Forged in Game 7: Thunder vs. Pacers in the NBA Finals Game Keys: Home Advantage and Controlled Chaos Key Players for Game 7 How Will We Remember This Final?The Matchups and Adjustments That Will Decide the Champion MVP Contenders Game 7 History Best Bets Expert Predictions for Game 7

It’s unclear which team that type of play will favor because neither has played many like it throughout the postseason. The Pacers haven’t won a playoff game with fewer than 108 points, but they just put forth their best defensive effort of the postseason, allowing only 91 points in Game 6. The Thunder, for their part, have a 1-6 record in the playoffs when they have scored 110 points or less. But OKC has a low-scoring victory, 92-87 in Game 4 against the Nuggets, and should be more accustomed to grind-it-out games. The Thunder have held their opponents under 100 points six times in the playoffs, five of them at home. But Oklahoma City hasn’t done it once against Indiana in the Finals.

The Battle of Ball Losses

The 2025 playoffs have been defined by turnovers. Overall, teams that commit fewer turnovers than their opponents have a record of 58-21 (.734). Since Oklahoma City led the league in avoiding turnovers and forced the second-most per possession, the Thunder drove and benefited from that trend. Against Western Conference opponents, Oklahoma City won the turnover battle in 14 of 16 games. But Indiana has been able to change the script in the Finals. After stealing Game 1 despite 25 turnovers, the Pacers had the edge in turnovers in their Game 3 and Game 6 wins and tied the Thunder in Game 4. Thursday was the biggest outlier. Oklahoma City’s deficit of 10 turnovers was double that of any other playoff game.

The 2025 Finals have been defined by turnovers.

Overall, teams that commit fewer turnovers than their opponents are 58-21 (.734). Given Oklahoma City led the league in avoiding turnovers and forced the second most on a per-possession basis, the Thunder both drove and benefited from that trend.

But Indiana has flipped the script.
— Kevin Pelton (@kpelton) June 21, 2025

McConnell’s ability to turn routine efforts to bring the ball up the court into costly steals has been a key factor in Indiana doing to the Thunder what Oklahoma City has done to teams all season. Owen Phillips of the F5 Newsletter noted on Saturday that the Thunder have committed 10 turnovers in this series before passing the ball beyond the 3-point line, compared to just one for the Pacers. Regarding the importance of home advantage for Game 7, Indiana has averaged 21 turnovers in three games at the Paycom Center, compared to 13.7 in three home games. If that division continues, the Pacers will face an uphill battle on Sunday.

MVP Contenders

If Oklahoma City manages to win Game 7 and claim the championship, the only realistic option on the Thunder is obvious: the league’s regular season MVP, Gilgeous-Alexander (minus-225).

Jalen Williams (more-1300) has had some great moments in this series, including his 40-point explosion in Game 5, but he’s not close enough to seriously tip the scales away from SGA in case OKC is victorious. Gilgeous-Alexander has the series’ iconic sequence to date with his fourth-quarter closing in Game 4, and his stats across the board are superior.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had 21 points and 8 turnovers in Game 6, tied for the most turnovers in a Finals game in the last 40 years. If the Pacers win, however, the race is open and it’s very likely to come down to how Game 7 itself unfolds, and who has the biggest impact. The most likely scenario is that, as in the Eastern Conference finals, it comes down to a choice between Indiana’s two stars, Haliburton (+1500) and Siakam (+300). Haliburton, playing despite a calf strain, has led the team in assists and had the winning basket in Game 1 and a stellar performance in Game 3. Siakam, on the other hand, leads the Pacers in points and rebounds, while averaging four assists and more than one steal and one block. The only real wildcard selection, depending on how he plays in a Pacers victory, is backup point guard McConnell (plus-10,000), who has had a fabulous series. He is unlikely to win the award, given that Siakam and/or Haliburton are almost guaranteed a big game if Indiana wins, but McConnell has had a big impact throughout the series as the leader of the Pacers’ second unit. More information about MVP probabilities.

Game 7 History

From the ESPN Research Team.

This is Game 7 number 20 in the history of the NBA Finals.
It’s the first Game 7 in the Finals since 2016, when the Cleveland Cavaliers defeated the Warriors to complete the only 3-1 comeback in Finals history.
Home teams have a 15-4 record in Game 7 of the Finals.
Each of the last eight Game 7s in the NBA Finals has been decided by a single digit and 15 of the 19 Game 7s in the NBA Finals have been decided by a single digit.
The average margin of victory in Game 7 of the NBA Finals is 6.9 points, the smallest margin among all Finals games.

The underprivileged:

Since seeding began in 1984, only one team seeded fourth or lower has won the NBA title. That was the 1995 Houston Rockets, who were the 6th seed.
The Pacers won 18 fewer games than the Thunder in the regular season. That would be the biggest upset in terms of regular season wins in an NBA Finals in league history.
The Pacers had a PPG differential 10.6 points lower than the Thunder. That would be the biggest upset in terms of PPG differential in an NBA Finals in league history.
The Pacers have 10 wins as an “underdog” this postseason, tied for the most of any team in a single postseason in the last 35 seasons.

Best Bets

Andrew Nembhard over 14.5 total points and assists (-120). While Haliburton was able to play well on Thursday, he is still dealing with a calf strain and could be limited. Nembhard took on a bigger role in Game 6, scoring a series-high 17 points with four assists (21 P+A), and I expect him to be called upon again in Game 7. Nembhard averaged 12.5 points and 5.0 assists (17.5 P+A) in the first two games of the series, both in Oklahoma City, and the Pacers will likely need him to at least match those numbers in Game 7. Jalen Williams over 22.5 total points (-125). Williams was in his scoring mode entering Game 6, averaging 31.0 points with at least 26 in each of the previous three contests. He had a strong scoring start in Game 6 with 16 points in the first half before the team was outscored in the third quarter. I expect Williams to bounce back in Game 7, playing at home, and generate another high-scoring effort. More bets for Game 7.