The NBA conference semifinals represent an increase in competition and stakes. Although few expected the play-in teams to compete for the 2025 title, once the group was reduced to eight contenders, the possibility of winning the championship is real for everyone.
The first round demonstrated parity in the league, with visiting teams defeating the number one seeds, such as the Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics, and Oklahoma City Thunder, in the first game of each series.
With the championship in sight, we analyze the keys for each remaining team to lift the Larry O’Brien trophy in June. What strengths must they show? What weaknesses must they mitigate? What matchups should they exploit or avoid?
Below, the chances of each team, ordered according to Alofoke Deportes’ Basketball Power Index (BPI), to win the 2025 NBA championship.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Probabilities according to the BIS:
- Reach Conference Finals: 63.6%
- Reach NBA Finals: 50.6%
- Win the 2025 title: 39.2%
Statistical models see the Thunder as the main favorites. Led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, with a record of points and one of the best defenses in NBA history, it’s no surprise.
However, the path to the title will not be easy. The Thunder will have to overcome a competitive playoff bracket. In the regular season, they had a 2-2 record against the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves, and 1-2 against the Golden State Warriors.
To maximize their chances, the Thunder need better performance from their stars. Gilgeous-Alexander is going through a small shooting slump, and his teammates must also improve. Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren must prove they are ready to be championship options.
Oklahoma City must also get stronger in rebounding. Despite the addition of Isaiah Hartenstein, Denver still managed 21 offensive rebounds in the first game.
Despite a stumble, the Thunder is still the best team in the NBA on paper. Now they must prove it on the court.
Indiana Pacers
Probabilities according to the BIS:
- Reach Conference Finals: 77.9%
- Reach NBA Finals: 37.0%
- Win the 2025 title: 12.8%
The Pacers have played like an elite team for months. They finished the regular season with a 34-14 run, showing outstanding performance in both offense and defense.
His rise coincided with the return of Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith. The Pacers’ starting lineup, with Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, and Myles Turner, has proven to be effective.
Indiana’s key to success lies in the combination of skills of its core, including shooting, playmaking, pace, and perimeter defense. In addition, the bench, led by T.J. McConnell, Bennedict Mathurin, and Obi Toppin, offers a valuable contribution.
The Pacers’ identity allows them to control the pace of the game and destabilize their opponents. With Haliburton at the helm, they generate good shooting opportunities and minimize turnovers, providing them with a solid offensive foundation.
The defense has improved significantly compared to last season. In the 2023-24 season, Indiana ranked 24th in defensive efficiency in the regular season, but this season, the Pacers are showing greater balance.
Golden State Warriors
Probabilities according to the BIS:
- Reach Conference Finals: 78.8%
- Reach NBA Finals: 25.9%
- Win the 2025 title: 12.5%
The Warriors have the experience of players like Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Kevon Looney, along with coach Steve Kerr. Added to this is the experience of Jimmy Butler.
The Warriors will depend on Curry and Butler, with support from players like Buddy Hield, Brandin Podziemski, and Moses Moody.
The defense was the best in the league after the All-Star break, with Butler and Green controlling the game on that end of the court.
Kerr’s tactical versatility and postseason management experience are advantages for the Warriors. However, they lack the offensive consistency needed to secure the title. Curry’s injury hinders their path to the conference finals.
Boston Celtics
Probabilities according to the BIS:
- Reach Conference Finals: 46.6%
- Reach NBA Finals: 27.1%
- Win the 2025 title: 12.0%
The Celtics maintain the same rotation that led them to the title in 2024. They enter each game with an advantage thanks to their ability to shoot and score three-pointers.
They have exceptional talent, led by five elite starters and high-level role players like Al Horford and Payton Pritchard.
Jayson Tatum has improved since winning the ring in 2024. After missing Game 2 against the Orlando Magic, Tatum scored 36, 37, and 35 points in the last three games, demonstrating his scoring ability.
Despite losing the first game against the New York Knicks, the Celtics are still favorites to reach the conference finals. If their shooters improve their performance, they will take another step towards repeating as champions.
Denver Nuggets
Probabilities according to the BIS:
- Reach Conference Finals: 36.4%
- Reach NBA Finals: 19.7%
- Win the 2025 title: 9.2%
Nikola Jokic is the best player in the world, and the formula that led the Nuggets to the 2023 championship still works, as demonstrated by his performance in Game 1 against Oklahoma City. However, his supporting cast must maintain their level.
Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray have proven their worth. The Murray-Jokic connection remains unstoppable.The Nuggets will face fatigue as the playoffs progress. If they overcome Oklahoma City, they can beat anyone. It would be favorable for the Warriors to beat the Timberwolves.
New York Knicks
Probabilities according to the BIS:
- Reach Conference Finals: 53.4%
- Reach NBA Finals: 23.2%
- Win the 2025 title: 7.7%
It’s hard to imagine the Knicks getting their first title since 1973. However, the victory in Boston demonstrated their fighting spirit.
The path to the title will depend on outstanding performances by Jalen Brunson and external luck. Injuries could affect the Celtics, which could open an opportunity for the Knicks.
If the Knicks manage to overcome the Celtics and if Indiana defeats Cleveland, they could have the home-court advantage in the conference finals.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Probabilities according to the BIS:
- Reach Conference Finals: 22.1%
- Reach NBA Finals: 12.7%
- Win the 2025 title: 5.5%
What seemed like a magical season has turned into a challenge for Cleveland, with injuries and the threat of the Pacers. The key to success is the recovery of their key players.
They need Mobley’s presence, Garland’s playmaking, and Hunter’s shooting to have a chance. If the stars return and shooting luck improves, Cleveland could bounce back.
A Cleveland team in top form could win the championship, but time is running out.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Probabilities according to the BIS:
- Reach Conference Finals: 21.2%
- Reach NBA Finals: 3.8%
- Win the 2025 title: 1.2%
The Timberwolves burst into the playoffs with an excellent performance in the regular season. With Anthony Edwards and other outstanding players, Minnesota has great potential.
They need to improve their three-point shooting percentage to advance in the playoffs. If Jokic manages to beat the Thunder, it could be beneficial for them.
The Timberwolves have the confidence, athleticism, and defense to be a tough opponent. They could be better prepared than last season.
