In-Depth Analysis of the 2025 NBA Finals: Pacers vs. Thunder
After two exciting games in the 2025 NBA Finals, the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder are tied with one win each. The series has maintained the initial expectation, but with some statistical surprises. In the first encounter, the Pacers managed to steal a victory at the Thunder’s home, showing the same magic that led them to this instance. However, in the second game, Oklahoma City demonstrated its superiority, taking the lead and controlling the game. Although the overall narrative of the series may seem familiar, the numbers have been anything but ordinary. The statistics of both teams reveal atypical trends compared to their usual performance, allowing us to better understand their strengths and weaknesses. Here’s an analysis of the five biggest statistical deviations so far in the Finals, evaluating how each team has performed in relation to its own previous performance.Analysis of Key Statistics
Indiana 2-Point Shots
During the regular season, the Pacers averaged 30.0 2-point shots per game with a 56.6% success rate. In the Finals, the team has shown a transformation, averaging only 22.0 2-point shots per game, with a 51.8% success rate. Pascal Siakam, for example, has seen his average decrease to 4.0 2-point shots per game. Simultaneously, Indiana has increased its three-point attempts, averaging 39.5 per game, taking more than 48% of its shots from the three-point line. This tactical change, influenced in part by the need to come back in both games, has altered its offensive dynamic.
Indiana Turnovers and Steals
Related to the change in shots, the Pacers have struggled to score due to an increase in turnovers. Almost 18% of Indiana’s possessions have ended in turnovers, a figure significantly higher than their season average of 11.9%. The 25 turnovers in the first game were the most for a winning team in a final since 1977. Oklahoma City’s steals have been a key factor, with 14 steals in the first game, tying for the second-most allowed by Indiana in a game this season. OKC’s average of 12.0 steals per game in the first two games far exceeds the Pacers’ average of 7.3 steals allowed.Oklahoma City Free Throws
Although the Thunder are not known for relying excessively on free throws, in these Finals they have averaged 25.0 free throws per game, with a free throw to field goal attempt ratio 51% higher than during the regular season. In the second game, the Thunder scored 29 free throws, the third-most in a single game this season, and the fourth-most allowed by Indiana. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been instrumental, accounting for 36% of the team’s free throws made.Indiana AnnotationDespite increased offensive consistency this season, the Pacers remain a team that relies on offense. In the Finals, their scoring average has decreased to 109.0 per game, compared to their average of 117.2 during the regular season. The combination of fewer 2-point shots, more three-pointers, and turnovers have affected their ability to score.
Assists from both teamsA common trend in both offenses is the decrease in the number of assists. The combined average assists of Indiana and Oklahoma City should be 55.5 per game, but in the first two games of the Finals, the combined average has been 44.5. For Indiana, despite their percentage of assists per basket made has increased, they are scoring fewer baskets. In the case of Oklahoma City, they are distributing the ball less than usual, with an assist rate of 47.9% in games 1 and 2, below their season average of 59.7%.
