NBA: Three Anti-Tanking Proposals To Reform the Draft Lottery

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NBA Proposes Radical Changes to Combat “Tanking”

The NBA presented three comprehensive proposals against “tanking” to its board of governors on Wednesday, as part of this week’s meetings in New York. Modifications are expected in each of them before a formal vote in May. Each of the three proposals represents a significant change from the current configuration. All share a common goal: to include the teams that reach the playoffs in the lottery process. From there, the proposals diverge notably.

The first proposal involves 18 teams: the 10 worst teams that don’t qualify for the play-in tournament and the eight that do. All would participate in the draft lottery.

The 10 teams with the worst records would have an 8% chance of moving up in the lottery. The remaining 20% of the probabilities would be distributed among the eight play-in teams, in descending order from 11th to 18th place. In the second proposal, the lottery would include 22 teams: the 10 that don’t reach the play-in, the eight that do and the four playoff teams that lose in the first round. These teams would be classified according to their performance over two seasons. Under this system, each team should achieve a minimum number of wins each season to mitigate the need to intentionally lose. For example, if the minimum were 20 wins, a team with a 14-68 record would be considered 20-62 for lottery purposes. In this system, the top four positions would be drawn in the lottery, as they currently are. The third proposal is a “five by five” method. In this case, the same 18 teams from the first concept (the 10 worst and the eight from the play-in) would participate in the lottery. The teams with the five worst records would have the same probabilities, and a lottery draw would be held for each of the first five draft picks. After selecting those five positions, there would be another lottery draw for the remaining 13 teams. If any of the teams with the five worst records did not get one of the top five positions, the lowest place they could reach in the second lottery draw would be tenth, preventing a poorly performing team from falling too far in the draft rankings. Owners are expected to discuss the details of the proposals with basketball operations leadership teams to assess impacts and unforeseen consequences. Governors, presidents, and general managers will continue the dialogue with the league before the May vote. The NBA began considering changes to combat tanking since December. The new proposals do not include previous ideas, such as limiting draft pick protections in trades and freezing lottery odds on a specific date.

“I think, ultimately, this is a decision that has to be made at the ownership level. It has business implications, basketball implications, integrity for the league.”

Adam Silver, NBA Commissioner
Silver also indicated that more changes could arise in future negotiations with the National Basketball Players Association, although the current collective bargaining agreement extends until the end of the decade. NBA commissioner Adam Silver made it clear that changes are coming after the criticism received by the league this season. This is because some teams are desperately seeking to secure one of the top spots in what is considered an extremely deep 2026 NBA draft class. The fact that the NBA is holding a special meeting of the board of governors in May demonstrates the importance the league places on resolving this issue. Silver also suggested that more changes could come in future collective bargaining negotiations with the National Basketball Players Association.
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