The NBA offseason is underway, and teams are making moves to complete their rosters for the 2025-26 season.
Kyrie Irving, after suffering an anterior cruciate ligament tear in the regular season, declined his player option with the Dallas Mavericks and intends to sign a three-year contract.
The Houston Rockets, who added Kevin Durant in a high-impact trade at the start of the offseason, began by agreeing to a three-year, $39 million contract extension with center Steven Adams. The decision comes after Adams had a great season as a substitute center for the second seed in the Western Conference. With the draft behind us and free agency (which opens on Monday at 6 p.m. ET) approaching, signings should happen quickly and frequently. As deals become official, we will analyze the plays and examine what each one means for the 2025-26 season and beyond. June 29: Harden and the Clippers reach a new two-year agreement The LA Clippers agreed to re-sign guard James Harden to a two-year, $81.5 million contract. Rating: B- The Clippers and Harden reached a creative contract, but I’m surprised he got a raise in this free agent market, even after an All-NBA season. The player option for the 2025-26 season in the contract Harden signed as an unrestricted free agent last summer was to pay him $36.3 million. Only the Brooklyn Nets have the cap space to make Harden that kind of offer without a sign-and-trade deal, and a return to Brooklyn seemed unlikely for several reasons. Harden will not only earn a minimum of $39 million this season (assuming maximum 8% increases), but will also benefit from an unorthodox player option for 2026-27. According to Shams Charania of ESPN, the player option is partially guaranteed, making the second season a sort of mutual option.For that to be legal, Harden’s salary for 2025-26 must be guaranteed at the same percentage. Presumably, that salary will be fully guaranteed days or weeks after the contract is signed, similar to the agreement J.R. Smith signed with the Cleveland Cavaliers in September 2015. The player option also gives Harden the right to approve any trade this season.
As with Smith, who declined his option after the Cavaliers won the 2016 title, the partial guarantee likely won’t matter in the end. Assuming Harden stays healthy and plays well during his age-36 season, either the Clippers will guarantee his 2026-27 salary or Harden will decline the player option and head to free agency next summer, when more teams will have cap space. A serious injury seems to be the only way Harden would exercise the option and be waived next summer. The advantage is that giving Harden a raise doesn’t really take anything away from the Clippers. With 12 players under contract, including Drew Eubanks and Jordan Miller with non-guaranteed deals, the Clippers are about $22 million below the lowest luxury tax apron. That should allow them to re-sign forward Nicolas Batum after he declined a $4.9 million player option and still use their $14.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception. Assuming the Clippers bring back Batum, that will give them eight players who saw at least 50 minutes of action in last season’s seven-game loss to the Denver Nuggets returning. The Clippers should be able to add another contributor using the mid-level exception, perhaps another ball-handler or a more experienced backup center after the team selected Yanic Konan Niederhauser with the No. 30 pick. June 29: Randle stays with the Wolves with a three-year contract The Minnesota Timberwolves agreed to re-sign forward Julius Randle to a reported three-year, $100 million contract Rating: B Essentially, this contract functions as a two-year, $69 million extension for Randle in addition to his $31 million player option for 2025-26. In fact, based on the maximum possible 8% increases, Randle’s salary impact may be almost identical to that figure. Getting Randle to sign for three years gives Minnesota cost certainty over this core. The Timberwolves project just around the luxury tax line of 2026-27 without starting point guard Mike Conley Jr. under contract and will have more breathing room for 2027-28, when Donte DiVincenzo’s contract expires and the salary cap appears to increase faster than year-over-year increases.For now, Minnesota has likely finished with its 2025-26 roster, which surely won’t include coveted unrestricted free agent Nickeil Alexander-Walker. After securing new contracts with their other two key free agents, Randle and Naz Reid, Minnesota has enough space to fill out the roster with minimum contracts, possibly team options for forward Josh Minott and center Luka Garza, and stay below the second apron.
Because the Timberwolves will be closer to the tax line with Rudy Gobert’s salary decreasing in the first year of an extension, their tax bill will be more modest this season. Minnesota plans to start the season paying between $20 and $30 million in taxes, with the ability to reduce that by trading players at the end of the roster mid-season. Compared to Reid’s contract, I like the value here more for the Timberwolves. Randle is a two-time All-Star who played at that level during the first two rounds of the playoffs before a disappointing series against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the conference finals. Randle probably didn’t have a market at this level in free agency this summer, but he could have done better within a year, when many more teams will have cap space. Converting this into a new contract instead of an extension allows both parties to remove incentives in Randle’s current contract, meaning his full salary impact is secured and unlikely incentives no longer affect Minnesota regarding the luxury tax apron. June 29: LeBron exercises the $52.6M optionLos Angeles Lakers forward, LeBron James, exercises his $52.6 million player option. Rating: N/A At first glance, ESPN’s Shams Charania’s explanation that James is exercising his 2025-26 player option while simultaneously contemplating his future with the Lakers is difficult to understand. If James wanted to play elsewhere, why not become a free agent? Because this year’s market largely lacks salary cap space, the rebuilding Brooklyn Nets are the only team that could offer James anything close to his maximum salary of $54.1 million as a free agent. If James were somehow to change teams this summer, it would almost certainly be via a trade. A sign-and-trade deal would be possible if James declined his option, but that possibility is complicated by the fact that a team receiving a player via a sign-and-trade deal is automatically limited by the lower apron of the luxury tax, which limits their moves to build the roster. An opt-in and trade is not subject to the same restrictions. For example, hypothetically, the Golden State Warriors could now trade Jimmy Butler III (starting a maximum extension) to the Lakers for James and Bronny James and neither team would face a hard cap of any kind, allowing the Warriors to re-sign restricted free agent Jonathan Kuminga. Setting James’s salary cap number clarifies the Lakers’ options in free agency. Essentially, the team will choose between re-signing forward Dorian Finney-Smith (who plans to decline a $15.4 million player option in favor of a longer contract, according to Charania) and using the $14.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception, presumably on a starting center. Following this latter route would limit the Lakers in the lower apron and allow them to safely fill out the roster with minimum contracts while maintaining some wiggle room for in-season trades. June 29: Portis returns to the Bucks with a three-year contract The Milwaukee Bucks agreed to re-sign forward/center Bobby Portis to a reported three-year, $44 million contract Rating: C- Portis had to decide on Sunday about a $13.4 million player option for 2025-26. Instead, he will sign a new contract that should pay him a similar amount this season with two additional years at more than $30 million. I’m surprised the market was so high for Portis, who was a finalist for the Sixth Man award in 2022-23 and 2023-24, but has never been so well rated by advanced statistics. Portis was not such an efficient scorer last season, when his accuracy in both 2-point shots (51%) and 3-point shots (36.5) was the lowest since he signed with Milwaukee in 2020. In addition, Portis missed almost the entire second half due to a 25-game suspension for violating the NBA’s anti-drug policy. To be fair to Portis, he became coach Doc Rivers’ most reliable option at center at the end of the Bucks’ first-round loss to the Indiana Pacers. Portis played 44 minutes in Game 5, which went to overtime, and had a double-double of 14 points (albeit with 6 of 18 shooting) and 10 rebounds. With Brook Lopez as an unrestricted free agent, Portis could be Milwaukee’s starting center next year.Although Portis’ contract would be economical for a veteran starter, I suspect that playing that role would expose him defensively. Opponents scored 69% of attempts within five feet with Portis as the primary defender, according to GeniusIQ tracking on NBA Advanced Stats, which placed him among the worst 25 among all players who defended at least three shots of this type per game. In contrast, opponents made only 59% of those attempts against Lopez.
I am also skeptical about how well Portis will maintain his value during the term of this contract. He turned 30 in February and will be 33 at the end of the last season of the agreement, another player option. The quickness that has been a strength for Portis when defended by centers may not continue to be an advantage for much longer. Every dollar counts for the Bucks, who are $27.5 million below the first luxury tax apron with nine players under contract, including the non-guaranteed salaries of AJ Green, Andre Jackson Jr., and Chris Livingston. If Milwaukee wants to use its non-taxpayer mid-level exception to re-sign unrestricted free agents Kevin Porter Jr. and/or Gary Trent Jr., the Bucks will have difficulty re-signing Lopez due to the resulting salary cap. If Portis wanted to exercise his player option, he would have been welcomed and an extension would have been considered in the future. Otherwise, he probably would have preferred to let Portis test the market and focus on re-signing Lopez. June 29: Jaylin Williams will sign a new three-year contract with OKCThe Oklahoma City Thunder agreed to re-sign center Jaylin Williams to a reported three-year, $24 million contract Rating: B+ This agreement is the latest example of the Thunder trying to manage their contracts to spend as much money now to have more flexibility in the future when extensions come into effect for starters Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Williams. Those deals are the remaining business for the defending champions, whose roster is complete. Because Oklahoma City had a $2.2 million team option for Jaylin Williams’ salary for 2025-26, this essentially functions as a two-year extension for $22 million. By declining the team option and starting the contract now, the Thunder can maximize the amount of the total salary that Williams receives this season. Starting the deal at its highest point and decreasing from there would leave Oklahoma City just below the luxury tax threshold after Saturday’s trade that sent 2024 first-round pick Dillon Jones to the Washington Wizards to clear a roster spot and save money. That assumes the Thunder pick up a $3 million team option on guard Ajay Mitchell, who is in a different situation because he will remain a restricted free agent next summer. Williams would have been unrestricted. Although Williams was not part of the Thunder’s rotation during the last two rounds of the playoffs, he has become a reliable option at center who took on a significant role with starters Isaiah Hartenstein and Holmgren unavailable for much of the regular season. Williams recorded three triple-doubles in nine starts, averaging 10.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 4.9 assists. He could become a rotation regular in the future if Oklahoma City has to do without Hartenstein, whose $28.5 million salary for 2026-27 is a team option, for financial reasons. June 28: Mitchell returns to Miami with a two-year contractAgreed to re-sign guard Davion Mitchell to a reported two-year, $24 million contract Rating: B By virtue of reaching 2,000 minutes played last season and meeting the “starting criteria”, Mitchell was in a strong negotiating position as a restricted free agent. Due to the qualifying offer criteria, Mitchell’s qualifying offer was $9.4 million, the second highest among restricted free agents, after Josh Giddey of the Chicago Bulls. Even if a market for Mitchell didn’t develop, playing in 2025-26 for the qualifying offer and becoming an unrestricted free agent next summer was a legitimate possibility. Instead, the two sides agreed on a deal that guarantees Mitchell more money, but keeps him under contract for two years, which also means he can be included in a trade without having to give his consent. Mitchell could still be a bargain if he keeps shooting like he did after joining the Heat at the trade deadline. Previously a 34% career 3-point shooter, Mitchell shot 45% from deep with Miami and 7 of 14 in the playoffs, earning him a starting spot and averaging 31.6 minutes per game after the trade. Nicknamed “Off Night” for its effect on opposing guards, Mitchell has always been an elite defender at the point of attack, but his lack of offense limited him to a reserve role for three seasons with the Sacramento Kings, who traded him to reduce salary a year ago. I hesitate to read too much into a sample of around 100 three-point attempts, but we’ve seen the Heat work wonders with non-shooters in the past. This deal gives Miami a couple more years to figure out if Mitchell’s progress is legitimate and if he can be a starting guard in the future. With Mitchell re-signed, the Heat are approaching the lower apron of the luxury tax, but still have the ability to fall below the tax line by waiving forward Duncan Robinson. Assuming Robinson doesn’t exercise an early termination option to test free agency, he will be under contract for $19.9 million. However, only $9.9 million of Robinson’s salary for 2026-27 is guaranteed. June 28: Merrill gets new deal with ClevelandAgreed to re-sign guard Sam Merrill to a reported four-year, $38 million contract Rating: B After accumulating only 350 minutes during his first three NBA seasons played with three different teams, Merrill has become an important piece in Cleveland’s excellent bench units of the last two seasons. Always a top-tier shooter, Merrill has hit 39% of his career 3-point attempts and has increased his volume with the Cavaliers: 11.9 attempts per 36 minutes in 2023-24 and 9.5 last season. A better defender than he appears based on his physical tools, Merrill held a key role in the rotation with Darius Garland out to start Cleveland’s second-round playoff loss to the Indiana Pacers, until a neck strain sidelined him for the decisive Game 5. Previously on a minimum contract, Merrill had earned a large raise. With the Cavaliers $10 million over the second luxury tax apron after Saturday’s deal for Lonzo Ball with only 10 players under NBA contract, that surely meant choosing between Merrill and also bargain backup Ty Jerome.In all likelihood, Merrill’s contract will be less than Jerome’s. This agreement starts at around $8.5 million with maximum increases of 8%, which puts it at the mid-level exception value of the room and well below the mid-level exception for non-taxpayers that could be Jerome’s market.
Going for four years with Merrill could have some risk. Because he was recruited at 24 after completing a Latter-day Saints mission before his career at Utah State University, Merrill recently turned 29 and this deal takes him well into his 30s. Merrill’s shooting ability is unlikely to decline, but his defense could become a problem at some point. With the limitations of Cleveland’s second apron, replacing Merrill would have been difficult, and the team can plan for a two-year window of heavy spending before pulling back when several contracts expire after the 2026-27 campaign. In that context, signing Merrill for a smaller starting salary but a larger total amount likely made sense for the Cavaliers. June 27: The Timberwolves and Naz Reid agree on a new dealAgreed to a reported five-year, $125 million contract with forward/center Naz ReidRating: C- In what seemed like a difficult market for free agents, Reid found a way to get an incredibly favorable contract. The Timberwolves now face the challenge of re-signing starting forward Julius Randle (who, like Reid, has a player option for 2025-26) and backup guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker as well. Minnesota must make some decisions about who to value, which began with paying Reid as a starting-caliber player during the term of his new contract. That’s interesting because only another team (the Brooklyn Nets) could make Reid a similar offer, and because there’s no clear path for him to become a starter in the short term if the Timberwolves bring Randle back. Unless the Nets were interested, Reid’s market would presumably have been the non-taxpayer mid-level exception of $14.1 million. That would have been worth a maximum of $60.6 million over four years, much less than what Minnesota offered. Reid also had the option to exercise his $15 million player option for 2025-26 and take his chances next summer, which should have been seen as a good outcome for the Timberwolves. Assuming maximum increases of 8%, Reid’s salary for next season will increase to $21.6 million. That leaves Minnesota about $33 million below the second apron of the luxury tax, including team options for forward Josh Minott and center Luka Garza. That could be enough to bring back Randle, whose 2025-26 option would have a salary impact of $31 million. Retaining Randle and Alexander-Walker, who should have a market near or in the non-tax mid-level, now seems impossible, unless there is a trade. I understand the Timberwolves prioritizing the two big men after selecting guards Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr. in the first round last year. Minnesota also has Jaylen Clark, the 2023 second-round pick, who shined on the defensive end in his rookie season after missing all of 2023-24 due to an injury. Furthermore, the Timberwolves are paying Reid during his prime years. He will turn 26 in August and will be 30 at the end of this five-year contract. Still, I am not convinced that Reid is a starting-caliber player despite winning the Sixth Man award in 2023-24. A bench role suits Reid due to his defensive limitations, which were exposed when playing more center last season after Minnesota traded Karl-Anthony Towns. Lineups with Reid at center allowed a defensive rating of 116.3 last season, according to Cleaning the Glass, compared to 103.0 when he played power forward. It’s worth keeping in mind if you’re projecting Reid as the eventual replacement for Rudy Gobert at center. The arrival of the second apron, more severe sanctions for teams with large luxury tax bills, means that overpaying key contributors is more costly than ever. Although Reid has been an indispensable part of the Timberwolves teams that have reached the last two conference finals, paying him as a starter will force them to make sacrifices in the future. Given the market, I think Minnesota should have done better with this contract. June 25: VanVleet will sign a new $50 million contract with HoustonAgreed to a reported two-year, $50 million contract with guard Fred VanVleetRating: A This agreement, which will replace a $44.9 million team option that the Rockets had for VanVleet in 2025-26, is a combination of Houston using its influence well and/or being willing to spend even more in the future. It is certainly true that it would have cost VanVleet a lot to surpass this offer on the open market. Only the Brooklyn Nets could legally do so using cap space, meaning the Rockets’ involvement in a sign-and-trade deal would have been necessary for VanVleet to get more than the non-taxpayer mid-level exception to play for a contender as an unrestricted free agent. Even so, the same will be true for virtually any notable free agent, and it’s unlikely that other teams will get this kind of bargain. Consider that VanVleet will earn less next season than Kyrie Irving, who will start the year rehabilitating from a torn ACL. Yes, Irving had the leverage of a player option for 2025-26 on his contract, but he still added more new money ($76 million in the two years after 2025-26) than VanVleet. VanVleet may be able to make up the difference now that he has a player option for 2026-27. Houston is currently limited by the second apron of the luxury tax by virtue of adding salaries in the Kevin Durant trade. That restriction may not exist within a year, allowing the Rockets to potentially re-sign VanVleet to a larger, longer deal in a summer in which other teams will have ample cap space to pursue him. For the time being, getting VanVleet about $20 million less than his option prepares Houston to have access to its non-taxpayer mid-level exception. In a market where only the Nets will likely have more to offer, that makes the Rockets a player for a marquee free agent to complement Durant and their young core. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is Houston’s most obvious target who would fit into a playoff rotation on the perimeter, having played that role for the Minnesota Timberwolves in consecutive runs to the conference finals. Gary Trent Jr.’s shot is another option, while Ty Jerome would be good value, but could duplicate what the Rockets hope will become the number 3 pick of 2024, Reed Sheppard. Wherever Houston lands, the ability to access the full mid-level should help Houston replace the slight depth lost in the Durant trade and strengthen the Rockets as championship contenders. June 24: Kyrie Irving declines player option<p
