Immortal Basketball Futures: Who Will Enter the Hall of Fame?
As a new class of stars enters the Basketball Hall of Fame this weekend, fans are wondering which active players might receive this honor after their retirement. History suggests that many current stars will secure a place in Springfield. Between 1955 and 2005, between 26 and 44 players became members of the Hall of Fame each season, with an average of 34 per year.
Considering this precedent, we identify the 50 players of the 2025-26 season with the greatest chances of being enshrined. Not all will make it, but these selections have the best opportunity to shine on induction weekends in the 2030s and 2040s.
Group 1: Safe Bets for the NBA 75th Anniversary Team
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Stephen Curry
Anthony Davis
Kevin Durant
James Harden
LeBron James
Kawhi Leonard
Damian Lillard*
Chris Paul
Russell Westbrook**
* Lillard might not play in the 2025-26 season due to an Achilles tendon injury.
**Westbrook, although currently without a team, seems likely to play somewhere during the 2025-26 season.**
This group of future Hall of Famers was part of the NBA’s 75th Anniversary Team in 2021. Being considered among the 75 best players in history, they are assured induction on their first attempt. There is no need to explain why these living legends will be honored in Springfield.Illustration by ESPN
Group 2: Players with Great Possibilities Outside the Top 75
Nikola Jokic
Kyrie Irving
Draymond Green
Klay Thompson
Paul George
Jimmy Butler III
Joel Embiid
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Rudy Gobert
If the 75th anniversary committee had met a year later, Jokic would likely have been included. Now with three MVP awards, two runner-up finishes, and a Finals MVP, his place in the Hall of Fame is almost guaranteed.
Irving, a nine-time All-Star, could reach 20,000 points in two more seasons and scored one of the most important shots in NBA history. His Finals rivals, Green and Thompson, are also easy choices, thanks to their contributions to a dynasty and their individual achievements as one of the best defenders and the second-best three-point shooter, respectively.
With nine All-Star appearances and six All-NBA selections, George is also a strong candidate. All retired players with at least six All-NBA selections are in the Hall of Fame. Butler, with only five All-NBA selections, has not yet reached that threshold, but will be recognized as the best player on two Finals teams.
Embiid and Gilgeous-Alexander are almost certain due to their MVP awards. Derrick Rose is the only retired former MVP not in the Hall of Fame, and unlike Embiid and SGA, Rose never had another All-NBA season. Such a high and extended peak is a guaranteed path to Springfield.
Finally, Gobert has four Defensive Player of the Year awards, tied for the most wins. If the also four-time winners, Dikembe Mutombo and Ben Wallace, are in the Hall of Fame, Gobert will surely be too.
Group 3: Rising Young Stars
Luka Doncic
Jayson Tatum*
Anthony Edwards
Victor Wembanyama
* Tatum might not play in the 2025-26 season due to an Achilles tendon injury.
Doncic and Tatum, still in their twenties, could already be set. The former has five selections on the All-NBA first team, while the latter has four, plus one selection on the third team.
However, for now, they might be a bit behind Gilgeous-Alexander due to some setbacks. For Doncic, it’s the lack of a title; for Tatum, it’s the uncertainty about his injury and his possible return to All-NBA level. Basketball-Reference’s Hall of Fame probability tool estimates Doncic and Tatum’s chances, if they retired today, at 45% and 59%, respectively. Those figures will surely increase in the coming years, but they are still not certain.
Edwards and Wembanyama, younger and with fewer achievements, deserve to be separated from the rest of the twenty-something stars. Edwards is fifth in career points up to age 23 (behind LeBron, Durant, Carmelo Anthony, and Doncic) and has been selected for the All-NBA second team in consecutive seasons. Only a few retired players, Blake Griffin, Kevin Johnson, Marques Johnson, and Ralph Beard, had two All-NBA appearances at age 23 and are not in the Hall of Fame.
Including Wembanyama may seem premature, as he has only played 117 games. But, if health permits, all NBA players, executives, and fans see him as a future Hall of Famer due to his extensive skill set at such a young age.
Group 4: Veterans at the Summit
DeMar DeRozan
Kyle Lowry
Jrue Holiday
Kevin Love
Al Horford*
Karl-Anthony Towns
* Horford, although currently without a team, will likely play in the 2025-26 season.
Although Basketball-Reference gives DeRozan a 48% chance of entering the Hall of Fame, he might be closer to being a sure thing than being at the top. Only four retired players with at least 20,000 career points are not enshrined, and they barely surpass that figure: LaMarcus Aldridge (20,558), Joe Johnson (20,407), Tom Chambers (20,049), and Antawn Jamison (20,042). As recent retirees, Aldridge and Johnson could be elected soon.
DeRozan, for his part, is already at 25,292 points and counting. Although he doesn’t have a great playoff history, his durability and statistics should propel him to Springfield.
Lowry and Holiday have similar cases, and although their statistics may not seem worthy of the Hall of Fame, they should receive a boost as consummate winners and complete and respected contributors.
Love is a power-forward version of Lowry and Holiday, with five All-Star appearances, an NBA championship, and an Olympic gold medal, as well as over 15,000 career points. However, Love had less longevity than the two point guards, as he hasn’t scored more than 1,007 points in a season since 2017-18, which could hurt his chances.
Horford, like Love, is a five-time All-Star and NBA champion. Unlike Love, his peak was lower, but he remains a championship-level contributor in his late 30s. Consideration for the Hall of Fame from all levels of basketball could benefit Horford, thanks to his consecutive college titles at Florida.
Finally, Towns is half a decade younger than the rest of the players in this group, but he doesn’t fit perfectly into any other group on this list. He certainly qualifies as a veteran, as he will enter his 30s with 10 seasons in the NBA. He has an impressive statistical record. He is a 7-foot player with 40% effectiveness in 3-point shots in his career, and he is one of 22 players in league history with career averages of more than 20 points and 10 rebounds per game; the other 21 are in the Hall of Fame, still active or excluded.
However, his achievements, consisting of a Rookie of the Year award, five All-Star selections, and three All-NBA Third Team selections, still do not meet Hall of Fame standards, and his playoff record is poor. Overall, it seems Towns needs a few more strong seasons to reach safe territory. Leading the Knicks to the Finals would certainly help.
Group 5: Players Aged 29 and Up
Jalen Brunson
Donovan Mitchell
Devin Booker
Domantas Sabonis
Jaylen Brown
This is an interesting group of players, all of whom will turn 29 by the end of October, and all with one or two All-NBA selections in their careers and a good chance of entering the Hall of Fame, depending on the rest of their careers.
Brunson is the most recent to ascend, a player who exploded late with All-Star selections and finished in the top 10 in MVP voting in the last two seasons. The Knicks captain has a long way to go, as he has not yet reached 10,000 career points, but he is on the rise and, like Towns, could take big steps this season if he leads the Knicks to the Finals through a weak Eastern Conference.
Another player who could take advantage of the East’s weakness is Mitchell, who would address the most obvious flaw in his resume: despite incredible regular season success and solid individual playoff numbers, Mitchell has never even reached the conference finals. With six consecutive All-Star appearances and a selection to the All-NBA first team last season, Mitchell has a solid foundation for future induction.
Booker, in the West, only has two All-NBA selections and is now in a terrible team situation, but his consistency since entering the league as a teenager means he is tenth in career points through age 28, with 16,452. Stephon Marbury (19th place) is the only player in the top 20 who is not in the Hall of Fame or is sure to get there. Booker could end up with a Hall of Fame-worthy case in the DeRozan style in a decade, with enough points to overcome any demerit on his player page.
Sabonis could also follow a path similar to DeRozan’s to join his father Arvydas, who entered the Hall of Fame largely due to his international career. The younger Sabonis is only a three-time All-Star and two-time All-NBA, but he continues to accumulate points, rebounds, and assists. With 68 career triple-doubles, 50 of them in his three full seasons in Sacramento, Sabonis could reach triple-digit triple-doubles, something only six players in NBA history have achieved. (Doncic will almost certainly surpass Sabonis in 100, as will Antetokounmpo.)
Brown, the last member of this group, has a unique and compelling award: the Finals MVP, which is almost a guarantee of eventual consecration: Cedric Maxwell and Andre Iguodala (who have not yet had the opportunity to be on the ballot) are the only retired Finals MVPs who are not in the Hall of Fame.
However, most Finals MVPs have much more solid resumes overall than Brown, a player who has been All-NBA once and has never been the best player on his own team. Like all other players at this level, he still has work to do, and he will have the opportunity to impress as the Celtics’ primary scorer this upcoming season with Tatum out due to an Achilles tendon injury.
Group 6: To Wait a Few Years
Tyrese Haliburton*
Jalen Williams
Chet Holmgren
Evan Mobley
Cade Cunningham
Paolo Banchero
Zion Williamson
Ja Morant
Trae Young
LaMelo Ball
Scottie Barnes
Alperen Sengun
Tyrese Maxey
Stephon Castle
Amen Thompson
Cooper Flagg
* Haliburton might not play in the 2025-26 season due to an Achilles tendon injury.
When analyzing young players with potential paths to the Hall of Fame, we decided to take a “the more, the merrier” approach. It’s easier to imagine the players in this group making the jump to be Hall of Fame worthy than better and more established players who are further along in their careers and are not yet at that elite level.
In other words: Is a player like Castle better today than, for example, Pascal Siakam? Definitely not. But Siakam is already 31 years old with only a 2% chance of making the Hall of Fame given his current resume, according to Basketball-Reference, while Castle is only 20. Therefore, the current Rookie of the Year has a greater chance of reaching a Hall of Fame level at some point in his career.
So we included all players who debuted in the last half-decade and have been selected for the All-Star, plus the youngster who seems most likely to make the All-Star soon (Thompson). We won’t cover all the players in this group in detail, but let’s analyze some of the most interesting cases.
Flagg hasn’t debuted yet, but given his potential as the number 1 pick, let alone a number 1 pick with so much anticipation, he already has almost a 50% chance of making it to the Hall of Fame someday. Here’s the number of future Hall of Famers selected first overall by decade:
1960s: 4
1970s: 4
1980s: 5
1990s: 4
2000s: 2 (plus LeBron, probably Griffin and maybe Rose)
The 2010s decade is unlikely to reach that historical average, with only two sure things (Davis and Irving) and one double-possibility case (Towns). Meanwhile, Anthony Bennett, Ben Simmons, and Markelle Fultz are no longer considered for the Hall of Fame, and Andrew Wiggins and Deandre Ayton have never been selected for an All-NBA team. Neither has Williamson, but at only 25 years old, two All-Star selections, and at least the potential to dominate if he can stay healthy, Williamson is worth mentioning as a possible long-term Hall of Fame candidate.
Several number 1 selections after him have better cases. We’ve already discussed Edwards and Wembanyama, and All-Star stars Cunningham and Banchero are also on the right track early in their careers, with plenty of room to grow as they approach their prime.
Finally, Williams and Holmgren could be Gilgeous-Alexander’s Thompson and Green as the Oklahoma City Thunder chase the league’s new dynasty. Williams was selected for the All-NBA and All-Defensive teams in his third season, and Holmgren should be a defensive pillar if he plays enough games to qualify.
With a historical average of 34 active Hall of Famers in any season, a uniform distribution would place approximately one Hall of Famer on each team. But, of course, the NBA doesn’t have a uniform distribution, and a team like the Dallas Mavericks could easily have four Hall of Famers playing for them next season (Davis, Irving, Thompson, and Flagg). What makes the Thunder so remarkable is that not only will they have three future Hall of Famers at the same time, but they are also young, growing together, and helping each other improve to become historical greats.
