NBA Reconstruction Analysis 2025: Who’s on the Road to the Championship?
In March, the first NBA reconstruction rankings for 2025 were published, where a significant change was expected after the draft lottery. With Cooper Flagg and Dylan Harper considered the two most promising talents of the class, the franchises with the worst results that would select them would undoubtedly move up the list. However, that May night, the Dallas Mavericks, with their 2024 Finals roster affected by the surprising trade of Luka Dončić in February and Kyrie Irving’s ACL tear in March, along with the San Antonio Spurs, obtained the first two picks. Even the third draft pick, VJ Edgecombe, went to the Philadelphia 76ers, who started last season as title contenders before injuries to their stars hampered their season. As a result, the latest version of these classifications is as difficult to analyze as in spring.What can the four teams with the worst results from last season — Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards, Charlotte Hornets, and Brooklyn Nets, who didn’t have the necessary luck in the lottery — do to boost their reconstruction? What’s next for teams like the Toronto Raptors, Atlanta Hawks, and Portland Trail Blazers, who didn’t make the playoffs last year, but are making moves to sneak into contention?
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1. San Antonio Spurs
Players under 25 years old: 8
Negotiable First Round Picks: 3
Players on rookie scale contracts: 5
The strategy: The Spurs and the Mavs are reminders that fortune sometimes depends on something completely outside a franchise’s control: luck. San Antonio got the number 1 (Victor Wembanyama), number 4 (Stephon Castle), and number 2 (Harper) picks in three consecutive drafts. That trio is the envy of all teams, except for the champions, the Oklahoma City Thunder, in terms of young talent. Add to the base All-Star De’Aaron Fox, who arrived via a trade from the Sacramento Kings, and Devin Vassell, who signed a five-year extension in October 2023, and the Spurs have every reason to believe their rise in the difficult West will continue.Is it working? Assuming Wembanyama is in good health after his deep vein thrombosis diagnosis in February —the Spurs officially cleared him to return earlier this month—, his mere presence is enough for the Spurs to top this list. The addition of Harper, in particular, adds a potential long-term perfect fit as his pick-and-roll partner.
Estimated return to relevance: San Antonio expects to compete for a top-six playoff spot this season with a healthy Wembanyama and has the combination of young players and draft picks to acquire another top-tier player in the coming months, if the opportunity arises and if San Antonio decides to go all-in.2. Dallas Mavericks
Players under 25 years old: 6
Negotiable First Round Picks: 3
Players on rookie scale contracts: 2
The strategy: Did you think San Antonio was lucky? Although Dallas general manager Nico Harrison declared that fans can “see the vision” after the franchise overcame the 1.8% odds of getting the first pick and Flagg, that the Mavericks would end up here after trading the franchise’s cornerstone, Dončić, in February, is the kind of extravagant plot twist that would make a film script roar with laughter.
Now, Dallas has an elite prospect, veteran talent, a tight contention window… and a lot of risk. The Mavs have few ball handlers, and the most reliable (Irving) will miss at least most of the regular season due to a torn ACL. But there is a chance that this group will finally come together and become one of the biggest threats in the West.Is it working? We haven’t had the opportunity to see this team come together the way Dallas envisioned when they traded for Dončić. Anthony Davis and Irving played less than a full game together due to injuries, and it will be a long wait before they share the court again due to Irving’s left knee injury. But this is a deep, long, athletic, and potentially excellent defensive group that could cause matchup problems when healthy.
Estimated return to relevance: If Irving returns and contributes in early 2026, it will be a big boost for Dallas in the second half of next season. With Flagg, Davis, and Irving on the roster, expect Dallas to be fully in the playoff fight in the West in 2026-27. A question for the not-so-distant future: At what point will the Mavs hand the keys to Flagg?
3. Atlanta Hawks
Players under 25 years old: 9
Negotiable First Round Picks: 4
Players on rookie scale contracts: 4
The strategy: What a difference a year makes. Entering the 2024 draft lottery, Atlanta was adrift. The Hawks couldn’t build on their surprising run to the 2021 conference finals. The franchise’s big move — trading for Dejounte Murray in the 2022 offseason to join Trae Young in the backcourt — was a disappointment. But then Atlanta won the lottery, selected Zaccharie Risacher on draft night, and sent Murray to New Orleans in exchange for a package that included Dyson Daniels, the 2025 Most Improved Player. Under new CEO Onsi Saleh, the Hawks made waves this offseason by signing Nickeil Alexander-Walker, trading Kristaps Porzingis, and pulling off a surprising draft night deal with the Pelicans to acquire a valuable 2026 pick (the most favorable of the Pelicans’ and Milwaukee Bucks’ first-round picks). The once-moribund Hawks have a chance to be a major threat as early as next season in the weakened East. However, Young’s future — the point guard can become a free agent next summer — is something to watch. Is it working? The real long-term success for Atlanta could depend on that 2026 Pelicans/Bucks pick. If it falls in the top five — ESPN’s first 2026 mock draft projects that pick to fall at number 8 — the Hawks could add another solid prospect alongside Young, Daniels, Risacher, and Jalen Johnson. If not, Atlanta has the foundation of an intriguing, long, and athletic roster under coach Quin Snyder.Estimated return to relevance: The Hawks are already a threat for a top-four spot next season, with the potential to continue growing if they get a top-tier player in next year’s draft. But unlike many teams that are lower in these rankings, Atlanta has a young core as good as any other team in the conference.4. Philadelphia 76ers
Players under 25 years old: 12
Negotiable First Round Picks: 3
Players on rookie scale contracts: 2
The strategy: With the All-Star trio of Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Tyrese Maxey sharing the court in only 15 games (294 minutes) last season, Philadelphia went from being an overwhelming offseason winner to the fifth-worst record in the league. The lost season came with a consolation prize: it put the 76ers in a position to keep their first-round pick protected in the top six, which Philadelphia did when they jumped to number 3 in the draft, allowing the 76ers to select Baylor guard Edgecombe. The offseason has been relatively quiet in Philadelphia otherwise, with most of the roster returning — although backup center Guerschon Yabusele signed with the New York Knicks — and some interesting players at the end of the roster like Trendon Watford, Jabari Walker, and Dominick Barlow.Is it working? It depends: Will Embiid be healthy? That’s the biggest question in Philadelphia. It’s also the main one that will determine if Philadelphia’s strategy works. With Embiid on the court, the 76ers believe they can compete with anyone in the East. But if the former MVP has a repeat of last season —he played only 19 games and was sidelined in February due to knee problems—, this team could be back in the draft lottery. Some franchise-altering decisions could follow.
Estimated return to relevance: Again, this goes back to Embiid’s health. With him on the court, Philadelphia will be a force this season. But if he’s out again for most of the season, given that he’s under contract for another three years for more than $180 million, it could trigger a chain reaction that will keep Philadelphia in the wilderness for quite some time. The 76ers also still owe a top-4 protected pick in the 2026 draft to the Oklahoma City Thunder after keeping their pick last season.
(Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)
5. Memphis Grizzlies
Players under 25 years old: 7
Negotiable first-round picks: 6Players on rookie scale contracts: 2
The Strategy: It’s been a very hectic few months in Memphis. The Grizzlies fired coach Taylor Jenkins two weeks before the end of the regular season, along with a good part of his coaching staff, and then traded the cornerstone of the franchise, Desmond Bane, to the Orlando Magic in exchange for a large number of draft picks last month. The Grizzlies, who insisted they were not rebuilding after Bane’s trade, moved aggressively in the draft to select forward Cedric Coward and agreed to a long-term extension with center Jaren Jackson Jr.Is it working? Maybe? General Manager Zack Kleiman, in a refreshing moment of candor, said in May that there’s no way to look at this group and think it has a chance to be a contender in the West as it is constituted. Kleiman followed that response by trading Bane in exchange for those picks, including a possible top-10 pick from Phoenix next year, and has continued to operate with a team around Jackson and Ja Morant that can still be a playoff team.
Estimated return to relevance: It all comes down to one question: What is the future of Morant? Can he return to being the player who seemed destined to be one of the faces of the NBA and a rising superstar? Or will he remain a very good player who will never reach that level again? The answer will determine whether this Memphis group, as it is constituted, has the opportunity to be more than a play-in type team in the West.6. Washington Wizards
Players under 25 years old: 12
Negotiable first-round picks: 6Players on rookie scale contracts: 10
The strategy: The Wizards have spent the last two seasons dismantling their roster. As a result, they have a team with seven players selected in the first round of the last three drafts and one who could have the most salary cap space in the 2026 offseason. This group lacks a high-level player needed to escape the depths of a rebuild. Therefore, the great expectation is that the Wizards will have another season wandering near the bottom of the standings and letting those young players learn through experience while trying to get a high pick in another loaded 2026 draft. (Washington’s pick is protected in the top eight, and it’s hard to see how the Wizards allow it to be traded).Is it working? The Wizards need luck in the lottery. They didn’t have any this spring, falling from second to sixth place on lottery night. They also need their lottery picks to succeed. So far, there have been flashes from their recent picks — Bilal Coulibaly two years ago, and Alex Sarr and Bub Carrington last season —, but there is no obvious franchise centerpiece.
Estimated return to relevance: Not in the short term. Washington is likely to continue thinking in a two- or three-year timeframe, even with luck in the lottery next spring, to move up in the Eastern Conference standings.7. Charlotte Hornets
Players under 25 years old: 12
Negotiable First Round Picks: 8
Players on rookie scale contracts: 7
The strategy: The Hornets, who arrive after their first full season with the new regime of Executive Vice President of Basketball Operations Jeff Peterson and Head Coach Charles Lee, feel stuck between deadlines. Charlotte has a group of players that it selected in the last three years under the new ownership group —Brandon Miller, Tidjane Salaun, and Kon Knueppel— and the remnants of the drafts from the previous regime led by LaMelo Ball (entering his sixth NBA season) and Miles Bridges. If the Hornets had gotten Flagg, perhaps we would be talking about a team ready to hit the accelerator. Instead, they traded Mark Williams in the draft and could start playing second-round pick Ryan Kalkbrenner at center, indicating another season headed for a high draft pick. Is it working? The Hornets have done well in recent years, but getting a franchise player also requires some luck. So far, Charlotte hasn’t had it. Based on how this offseason unfolds, the Hornets will also try again next summer.Estimated return to relevance: Charlotte has the potential to kickstart its rebuild in 2026-27 if it gets a high draft pick. Or, the Hornets could go in the opposite direction if a very successful haul materializes for Ball. That would further delay this group’s timeline, but with more opportunities to get a franchise cornerstone in the draft.8. Utah Jazz
Players under 25 years old: 12
Negotiable First Round Picks: 7
Players on rookie scale contracts: 8
The strategy: Utah had the worst record in the league last season, but didn’t get Flagg or Harper. Instead, Utah fell to number 5 and selected Rutgers forward Ace Bailey. The new president of basketball operations, Austin Ainge, in his introductory press conference last month, stated that the Jazz will lean towards their youth movement. He backed that up by getting rid of veterans Collin Sexton and John Collins via trade and Jordan Clarkson via contract termination in recent weeks. Is it working? Utah’s main office is in a good place. Ainge and Justin Zanik form a quality duo along with team CEO Danny Ainge and head coach Will Hardy, who recently extended his contract. But the Jazz still haven’t found the luck needed to get the kind of talent that moves teams up this list. Until they do, it’s hard to see things progressing drastically in a brutal Western Conference race. Still, the Jazz have many future draft picks and the development potential of their young players. Bailey, a talented wing scorer, could be the foundational player that Utah desperately needs.Estimated return to relevance: Between the state of the Utah roster and the competitive West, the path for the Jazz to become competitive again is going to be extremely long. The organization is well-positioned to navigate that path, but that doesn’t make it any easier.9. Brooklyn Nets
Players under 25 years old: 12
Negotiable First Round Picks: 9
Players on rookie scale contracts: 7
The strategy: A year ago, the Nets pulled off a highly successful trade with their city rival, the Knicks. The first deal between the teams in decades sent Mikal Bridges to Manhattan in exchange for five first-round picks, along with a separate deal with the Houston Rockets to regain control of their draft picks in 2025 and 2026. They will go through a proper rebuilding period after failing in the Kevin Durant-James Harden-Irving era in Brooklyn. Last season, the Nets — under first-year coach Jordi Fernández — impressed at different times, but ultimately, they were unlucky in the lottery and obtained the eighth pick, which they used to select BYU guard Egor Demin, in what was the team’s first lottery pick since the franchise moved to Brooklyn in 2012. Demin was one of a record five first-round picks the Nets used in the 2025 draft. The franchise also signaled its intention to pursue another high pick in 2026 by sending Cameron Johnson to Denver in exchange for Michael Porter Jr. and a 2032 first-round pick.Is it working? When the Nets got their draft picks back for 2025 and 2026, the plan wasn’t to end up with the eighth pick. From that point of view, the answer is no. But if Brooklyn can come out of next year with a high-level pick, then the Nets can at least start to move forward. The acquisition of Porter took away a large part of next summer’s salary cap space, but the Nets will still have tens of millions to spend.
Estimated return to relevance: The closest timeframe is after next season, if the Nets decide to speed things up after these two drafts. But Brooklyn, which has a lot of future draft picks, probably has a long way to go before returning to realistic championship contention.
(Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)
10. Toronto Raptors
Players under 25 years old: 11
Negotiable First Round Picks: 4
Players on rookie scale contracts: 6
The strategy: Toronto spent the last two seasons trying to quickly change its roster from a core formed by Fred VanVleet (left in free agency), Pascal Siakam (traded) and OG Anunoby (traded) to one built around young forward Scottie Barnes. Barnes, Brandon Ingram — who has yet to play with Toronto since arriving via a trade and extending his contract in February —, Immanuel Quickley and Jakob Poeltl make up the team’s new core. The Raptors selected South Carolina forward Collin Murray-Boyles in ninth place last month. The goal is to return to the playoffs next season in what is a wide-open Eastern Conference after Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton’s Achilles tendon ruptures during the playoffs.Is it working? The Raptors have done a lot of work in the last two years to seemingly end up with a similar —or lower— ceiling than they had before dispensing with the remaining members of the 2019 NBA champions’ core. Things got even more complicated when the Raptors announced that Masai Ujiri, the architect of the franchise’s only title, was leaving the day after last month’s draft, and a successor is being sought.
Estimated return to relevance: If Toronto doesn’t return to the playoffs this season, it will be considered a major disappointment. However, whether this team can truly become a contender again will depend on many factors, including individual growth and improvement from Barnes, Ingram, Quickley, and others.11. Portland Trail Blazers
Players under 25 years old: 9
Negotiable First Round Picks: 3
Players on rookie scale contracts: 4
The Strategy: For a few years now, the Blazers seem like a team trying to execute multiple strategies at once under the direction of general manager Joe Cronin. The team has selected a number of young players at the top of the lottery — Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, and Donovan Clingan — and yet, all of them have been repeatedly blocked by older veterans for playing time. This offseason, Portland traded Jrue Holiday — now in his thirties — and, for the second year in a row, used a first-round pick for a center, Yang Hansen, an intriguing player who will need time to develop his game. This is also a template that borders on the luxury tax. And, although it plans to build on the strong second half of last season — Portland was above .500 and had one of the best defenses in the league —, time will tell if that was a solid game against a soft schedule or signs of true growth.Is it working? Portland welcomed franchise icon Damian Lillard on Thursday, signing him to a three-year, $42 million contract. His return gives the Blazers a leadership presence that their next generation is developing. Sharpe and Henderson are intriguing talents who require more consistency to make that leap. Clingan can be a defensive threat, but selecting Hansen this year also raises questions about his future. Toumani Camara and Deni Avdija, who have been quite good with below-market deals, could earn big deals in the coming seasons, eliminating some of their surplus value.
Estimated return to relevance: Portland is clearly operating as a team that believes it can crack the top 10 in the Western Conference this season, as evidenced by the Holiday deal. However, the path to pursue a top-four seed is years away.
(Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
12. Chicago Bulls
Players under 25 years old: 10
Negotiable First Round Picks: 5
Players on rookie scale contracts: 2
The strategy: The Bulls, a perennial play-in team, made it there again last season, losing in the first game against the Miami Heat. Chicago secured the twelfth pick in last month’s draft and used it to select French forward Noa Essengue. The expected improvement of Miami, Philadelphia, and Toronto — all teams that finished behind Chicago last season — could allow the Bulls to acquire a game-changing talent in next year’s draft, despite not doing much to position themselves there. Chicago is also on track to have the most cap space next summer, even after the expected re-signing of restricted free agent Josh Giddey this offseason. Are you
