The NBA Prepares for a Crucial Close: Rookie Extensions in the Spotlight
Although the start of the NBA season is the most anticipated event, the attention of league executives is focused on an imminent deadline. Monday at 6 p.m. ET marks the deadline for contract extensions for players who are still on their rookie contracts, as well as for veterans signed beyond this season.
This deadline is especially relevant, as it occurs approximately 24 hours before the Houston Rockets face the current champions, the Oklahoma City Thunder, in the start of the 2025-26 season.
In the current season, we have already seen several players from the 2022 draft class secure their extensions with their teams. Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren, and Jabari Smith Jr., the number one, two, and three picks respectively, signed long-term deals with the Orlando Magic, Thunder, and Rockets in July. Jalen Williams and Nikola Jovic have also secured their contracts.
On Wednesday, the Sacramento Kings and Keegan Murray agreed to a five-year, $140 million contract, according to sources. With the clock ticking, the key question is how many of the remaining 15 extension-eligible players will reach long-term agreements with their current teams before the deadline.
Let’s remember that in 2023 and 2024, 14 of the 25 players who signed rookie extensions did so on the last business day. In addition, by Monday, teams will also have to reduce their rosters to 15 players with standard contracts.
Detailed Analysis of Key Negotiations
Next, we analyze the market for 10 of the most prominent names in the rookie extension group, highlighting the most interesting negotiations and predicting their possible outcomes.
Dyson Daniels, Atlanta Hawks
Why an extension could materialize: Daniels has been a great success for Atlanta. He arrived at the Hawks in the summer as part of the trade that sent Dejounte Murray to the New Orleans Pelicans, and became the NBA’s Most Improved Player last season, leading the league in steals. The Hawks reached an agreement with Jalen Johnson last year, so it wouldn’t be surprising if they found a solution for Daniels.
Why it might not happen: Daniels’ agent is using the five-year, $150 million extension that Jalen Suggs signed as a benchmark, while also evaluating Trae Young’s uncertain future in Atlanta. Daniels was named to the All-Defensive first team, finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting, and increased his offensive production from 5.8 to 14.1 points. However, Young has a $49 million player option for next season and has been eligible to sign an extension since mid-June.
Suggested offer: A five-year contract and $125 million.
Will it happen? If last year’s negotiations with Johnson are any guide, this agreement is likely to be extended until the Monday deadline. The prediction is that an agreement will be reached, but finding a number that both sides accept could be difficult.
Christian Braun and Peyton Watson, Denver Nuggets
Why an extension could materialize: Braun has become an integral part of Denver’s operation, helping the Nuggets win their first NBA title as a rookie and then entering the starting lineup last season. Watson, for his part, is an athlete who also brings an interesting skill set alongside Nikola Jokic.
Why it might not happen: The Nuggets could be financially limited. They could get $10 million in salary relief, but at the cost of giving up Jonas Valanciunas.
Suggested offer: For Braun, a five-year extension and $126.5 million, starting at $21.8 million. For Watson, a four-year extension and $54 million.
Will it happen? The Braun agreement seems the most likely. With Watson, it would be surprising if Denver did something similar, particularly with how their finances look in the future.
Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons
Why an extension could materialize: Ivey was showing signs of improvement before an unfortunate injury. For Duren, the argument is simple: he’s a 21-year-old player who averaged a double-double in his first season.
Why it might not happen: How much do the Pistons consider Ivey’s injury? Duren’s future comes down to not wanting to pay a high premium to a center.
Suggested offer: A five-year extension and $112.5 million for Duren and a four-year extension and $86.5 million for Ivey.
Will it materialize? It is unlikely that any of these agreements will materialize. There are too many factors complicating the situation.
Tari Eason, Houston Rockets
Why an extension could materialize: Eason is a consistent player for the Rockets. Houston has shown its ability to secure its young players with good contracts.
Why it might not happen: The Rockets will likely consider Eason’s surgery in the 2023-24 season and the games he missed due to the same injury. Eason has also been a substitute.
Suggested Offer: Four years, $80 million.
Will it happen? It seems it will eventually. Houston has secured its young players with general manager Rafael Stone, so the Rockets are expected to continue doing so.
Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers
Why an extension could materialize: Pacers coach Rick Carlisle said Mathurin was going to be a starter. Getting a deal done with Mathurin could make sense.
Why it might not happen: Can Indiana afford to pay Mathurin when there are already $80 million committed to Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, and T.J. McConnell? An extension would also put Indiana over the luxury tax.
Suggested Offer: Four years, $68 million.
Will it happen? It’s unlikely. Indiana already has $160 million committed to seven players next season.
Mark Williams, Phoenix Suns
Why an extension could materialize: Phoenix has already shown its commitment to Williams. Getting Williams on a long-term contract with the franchise would make sense.
Why it might not happen: Williams’ health could be the most scrutinized in the NBA. Williams has never played more than 45 games in any season.
Suggested Offer: A three-year extension and $51 million.
Will it happen? It’s unlikely to happen, even with the investment the Suns made to get Williams. It seems like it will be a wait-and-see situation.
Shaedon Sharpe, Portland Trail Blazers
Why an extension could materialize: Sharpe was the first draft pick of general manager Joe Cronin in 2022. Portland would want to keep him as part of their program.
Why it might not happen: Salary flexibility next offseason. The Blazers would have to let Sharpe go in free agency to free up space.
Suggested Offer: Four years, $105 million.
Will it happen? The bet is that this will be done. The Blazers have expressed their belief that they can build on their strong second half of last season.
Walker Kessler, Utah Jazz
Why an extension could materialize: It would ensure that Utah’s rebuild is anchored by a player who has demonstrated his ability to protect the rim.
Why it might not happen: Kessler was selected outside the lottery and his salary hold for next season is modest.
Suggested Offer: Five years, $116 million.
Will it happen? It is unlikely. Both sides have indicated that it will not happen.
