The 2025 NBA draft lottery arrives with its usual dose of intrigue this Monday (7 p.m. ET), with the entire league gathered in Chicago and offseason preparations underway for almost all franchises.
With Cooper Flagg as the projected consensus No. 1 pick and headliner of the NBA draft, and Dylan Harper representing a strong option at No. 2, along with a host of intriguing young players, many of them freshmen, Monday’s event is shaping up to be a fascinating lottery night, with the fates of at least 13 NBA teams hinging heavily on which combinations are drawn.
Alofoke Deportes’ NBA draft analysts, Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo, analyze each team’s prospects in the lottery, with information on their upcoming offseason and simulating the best prospect fit for each if the order remains constant. Of course, history suggests that it won’t be like that, with surprises on the horizon.
This is what you need to know ahead of Monday’s draft lottery.
- UTA
- WAS
- CHA
- NOR
- PHI
- BKN
- TOR
- SAS
- HOU
- POR
- DAL
- CHI
- ATL
Utah Jazz
Odds of the number 1 pick: 14% | Odds of being in the top four: 52.1%
If they are in the top four, they should choose…
- Cooper Flagg, Duke, SF/PF
- Dylan Harper, Rutgers, PG
- Ace Bailey, Rutgers, SG/SF
- VJ Edgecombe, Baylor, SG
Most likely selection if they stay at number 1: Flagg
Any NBA team would be thrilled to add Flagg, but Utah stands out in particular for needing the star power of the Duke rookie more than others. The Jazz made a concerted effort to bottom out and finish with the worst record in the league (17-65) this season. And Utah is coming off two relatively unsuccessful lottery seasons (2022-24), winning 37 and 31 games respectively, after trading Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell and officially kicking off their rebuilding process.
While it wouldn’t solve all their problems, Flagg would create a large, versatile, and very formidable frontcourt alongside Lauri Markkanen (if he’s considered to fit Utah’s timeline) and Walker Kessler, while also being provided with the type of shot-creation responsibility he needs to reach his full potential. — Givony
What we are hearing about the Jazz: Attracting star free agents to Utah has historically not been easy, which puts pressure on the front office to make big plays in the trade market and especially through the draft, where the franchise is well-stocked for future success.
The Jazz have a pair of first-round picks (this one and the 21st pick) and second-round picks in this year’s draft, as well as a large number of future picks coming from the Cavaliers, Timberwolves, Lakers and Suns between now and 2031. Utah’s passionate fanbase will be holding its breath on lottery night, hoping to hit the jackpot with Flagg at No. 1 and, in the worst-case scenario, not falling past No. 2, where Harper could also be a promising long-term fit. — Givony
Washington Wizards
Odds of the number 1 pick: 14% | Odds of being in the top four: 52.1%
If they are in the top four, they should choose…
- Flagg
- Harper
- Edgecombe
- Bailey
Most likely selection if they stay at number 2: Harper
Harper is the type of ball-handling force the Wizards could use to bolster their long-term attack, capable of putting downward pressure on defenses and making life easier for his teammates. Although Rutgers didn’t make the NCAA tournament, Harper had flashes of talent as a playmaker and scorer, with the finishing ability and passing vision to command significant usage. He would be a strong pick-and-roll partner for the dunk threat Alex Sarr and has the size to play alongside promising guard Bub Carrington.
Harper’s instinct and positional size would be a philosophical fit for a franchise still rebuilding and should make him attractive to all teams in the lottery, with a high probability of being the No. 2 pick, regardless of who selects there. — Woo
What we’re hearing about the Wizards: The Wizards stand out as a particularly interesting destination for Flagg, who would form a strong defensive backbone with Sarr and would have the opportunity to stretch offensively in Washington. There are also big admirers of Harper in this office, and the Rutgers guard would give the Wizards a leading playmaker around whom to build their attack.
Washington remains committed to its long-term process and will likely play the lottery again next year, positioning the Wizards to continue making big moves at the top of the draft. If their 2024 draft class was any indication, the Wizards are highly valuing positional size and targeting young players with a strong instinct. If they don’t end up with a top-two pick, those criteria will continue to guide which direction to go. — Woo
From left to right, Rutgers’ former freshman students Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper are projected as top-five picks in the 2025 NBA draft.
Vincent Carchietta/Imagn Images
Charlotte Hornets
Odds of the number 1 pick: 14% | Odds of being in the top four: 52.1%
If they are in the top four, they should choose…
- Flagg
- Harper
- Bailey
- Edgecombe
Most likely selection if they stay at number 3: Bailey
Bailey would represent an immense talent upgrade and a strong positional fit, bringing the type of long, explosive, and dynamic perimeter scorer that every NBA team covets. He is far from reaching his potential, but he showed flashes of greatness as a freshman at Rutgers.
It would be an excellent on-paper pairing with the dynamic playmaking prowess of Charlotte’s LaMelo Ball and the offensive versatility, skill level, and feel for the game of Brandon Miller, potentially helping to minimize some of Bailey’s deficiencies in those departments. — Givony
What we’re hearing about the Hornets: Less than two years removed from a change in ownership and an overhaul of the front office and coaching staff, the Hornets are still firmly in talent acquisition mode, with a lot riding on the results of this year’s draft lottery to jolt them out of NBA purgatory.
Miller, the Hornets’ No. 2 pick in 2023, has shown considerable promise when healthy, but missed a large part of the season with a wrist injury and other ailments. A big decision awaits with Ball, 23, who has been mentioned as a possible trade candidate, but has played in only 105 games in the last three seasons due to injuries.
After the failed Mark Williams trade with the Lakers at the deadline and a somewhat discouraging season from rookie Tidjane Salaun, the Hornets have time on their side but could desperately need good luck in the lottery to propel the franchise in a more defined direction. — Givony
New Orleans Pelicans
Probabilities of the number 1 pick: 12.5% | Probabilities of being in the top four: 48.1%
If they are in the top four, they should choose…
- Flagg
- Harper
- Edgecombe
- Bailey
Most likely selection if they stay at number 4: Edgecombe
Edgecombe would presumably be very attractive to New Orleans, a team that has been in need of young star power in the backcourt. There will be a lot of debate and variations from team to team on which prospect should be ranked third once Flagg and Harper are off the board, which makes this range of the draft particularly interesting to analyze as the combine approaches.
Some in the league view Edgecombe as a slightly safer option than Bailey, and it might make more sense for the Pelicans even if both are available. Edgecombe’s physicality and his development margin as a ball-handling option give him a good amount of potential, but he has a long way to go to take on such a big role. — Woo
What we’re hearing about the Pelicans: It remains to be seen what kind of approach the Pelicans will take in the draft with veteran executives Joe Dumars and Troy Weaver now at the top of the decision-making tree, something rival teams are curious to assess. New Orleans has been treading water the last few seasons, with untimely injuries and Zion Williamson’s struggles to get on track defining their results.
There is certainly enough talent on the roster for a positive change next season to be a feasible goal, making this the Pelicans’ best opportunity to pick near the top of the draft for the foreseeable future. Neither Dumars nor Weaver have historically shied away from making a big splash, which could make them a wildcard team in both the draft and the trade market, as they inherit a relatively favorable situation from the perspective of personnel and draft picks. — Woo
Philadelphia 76ers
Probabilities of the number 1 pick: 10.5% | Probabilities of being in the top four: 42.1%
If they are in the top four, they should choose…
- Flagg
- Harper
- Bailey
- Edgecombe
Most likely selection if they stay at number 5: Jeremiah Fears, guard from Oklahoma
Fears and Tre Johnson will be receiving even higher looks than this position, potentially starting at number 3, as there is quite a bit of enthusiasm in NBA circles surrounding the long-term future of both prospects. Fears’ late-season performances in the SEC and in the NCAA tournaments highlighted the significant star power and potential he possesses as a primary shot creator who can get paint touches at will, score in multiple ways, and find teammates creatively on the move.
Johnson’s positional upside (alongside Tyrese Maxey and Jared McCain), willingness to contribute, and his size and length will keep him firmly in the conversations here as well, with the outcome of workouts, interviews, and background research likely to have a significant influence on the direction the Sixers (or other teams picking in this range) end up taking. — Givony
What we’re hearing about the 76ers: The 76ers went from being a top-five contender in Las Vegas’ preseason odds to win the championship to finishing with the fifth-worst record in the NBA (24-58). Things could go from bad to worse on draft lottery night if two or more teams jump ahead and push Philadelphia to the No. 7 pick or lower, meaning their pick will be conveyed to Oklahoma City as part of the Al Horford trade in 2020.
If the Sixers finish in the top six (they have a 64.6% chance), they won’t have an easy decision to make. Do they look to draft the player best equipped to help this iteration of their roster win games next season, or do they go with the prospect they believe will be the best player in five years? — Givony
Oklahoma freshman guard Jeremiah Fears announces on The Paul Finebaum Show that he is declaring for the NBA Draft in June.
Brooklyn Nets
Odds of the number 1 pick: 9.0% | Odds of being in the top four: 37.2%
If they are in the top four, they should choose…
- Flagg
- Harper
- Bailey
- Edgecombe
Most likely selection if they stay at number 6: Tre Johnson, Texas, guard
Johnson has elevated his draft position after a season that showcased his scoring prowess, albeit at the expense of some efficiency. Although the Nets have leaned heavily in the last two seasons on Cam Thomas, another guard who can be equally dominant with the ball, Johnson’s size, youth, and offensive potential make him worth considering for a team that had the third-worst offensive rating last season.
Johnson’s tendency to take difficult shots and bouts of excessive aggression make him polarizing for scouts, but he is one of the most talented scorers in the draft in an offense-driven league. He would be a worthwhile player to develop and could take on a big role immediately in Brooklyn. — Woo
What we’re hearing about the Nets: The buzz from rival teams has been that the Nets aren’t planning a true long-term rebuild, even after reacquiring their own picks last summer. The Nets have the most cap space in the league this offseason, but with a high-level 2026 draft on the horizon and a roster that needs significant modifications to compete for a playoff spot, patience remains a virtue here.
Brooklyn, lacking a center player, is in a position to aim upwards with this selection, regardless of where it falls in the lottery, as it figures out what the next iteration of its team will be. The Nets can afford to wait until the right star is available to change gears. — Woo
Toronto Raptors
Odds of the number 1 pick: 7.5% | Odds of being in the top four: 31.9%
If they are in the top four, they should choose…
- Flagg
- Harper
- Bailey
- Edgecombe
Most likely selection if they stay at number 7: Khaman Maluach, Duke, center
A good end to the season, with a 22-21 record in the last 43 games, diminished the Raptors’ lottery chances and left them hoping for good fortune similar to 2021, when they moved from number 7 to number 4 and selected the eventual NBA Rookie of the Year and All-Star Scottie Barnes. With Jakob Poeltl entering the final team-controlled season of his contract (player option for 2026-27), it makes sense to consider his successor, as he will turn 30 before the start of the 2025-26 regular season.
Maluach brings the type of length, defensive versatility, intensity and character that Toronto’s front office has often coveted, and is someone the Raptors will be intimately familiar with given his draft history and Maluach’s South Sudanese and NBA Academy background. (The Raptors selected the first player from the NBA Academy Africa, Ulrich Chomche, last June). — Givony
What we’re hearing about the Raptors: Surrounding Barnes with the right players and finding the optimal strategy to compensate for his inconsistent 3-point shooting will remain a front-office priority, especially with Brandon Ingram on the roster.
With most of the core team between 21 and 27 years old, it will be interesting to see what kind of offensive leap the Raptors can make next season. The team’s direction with this pick, whether it’s a point guard, a wing, a forward, or a center, will shed light on how to view this existing group. — Givony
San Antonio Spurs
Odds of the number 1 pick: 6.0% | Odds of being in the top four: 26.3%
If they are in the top four, they should choose…
- Flagg
- Harper
- Edgecombe
- Bailey
Most likely selection if they stay at number 8: Kasparas Jakucionis, guard/shooting guard from Illinois
Jakucionis enters the NBA with the caliber of offensive creativity, intangibles, and international background that have traditionally been attractive to the Spurs organization.
While San Antonio has significantly improved its backcourt in the last year by selecting Stephon Castle and trading for De’Aaron Fox, the Spurs should be drawn to Jakucionis’ perimeter shooting, altruism, and ability to play both guard positions, a skill set that gives him avenues to become a quality supporting player on an NBA roster and makes sense as a long-term development investment. — Woo
What we’re hearing about the Spurs: San Antonio intends to get a healthy Victor Wembanyama to the playoffs next season, which means they will explore all avenues to improve their roster in the short term and will be involved in the free agent and trade market for established talent.
Wembanyama’s youth and the strength of the Spurs’ position have allowed them to maintain the long-term vision, as demonstrated by last year’s draft night, when they traded the number 8 pick to Minnesota for future assets. Choosing well and laying sustainable long-term foundations around their rising 21-year-old star remains important.
The Fox trade signaled the Spurs’ willingness to be aggressive in accelerating their timeline, and the direction they take with these draft picks could be a referendum on how they view their own needs and the fit of other young players on the roster. — Woo
Houston Rockets (via Phoenix)
Odds of the number 1 pick: 3.8% | Odds of being in the top four: 17.3%
If they are in the top four, they should choose…
- Flagg
- Harper
- Bailey
- Edgecombe
Most likely selection if they stay at number 9: Kon Knueppel, Duke, guard/forward
The Rockets acquired Phoenix’s unprotected first-round pick as part of a complex trade with Brooklyn that should generate significant dividends in the coming years. After a 52-20 regular season, the Rockets were defeated in the first round of the playoffs by the No. 7 seed Golden State Warriors, losing in seven games and showing deficiencies in terms of their lack of experience and inconsistency on the offensive end.
With 2023 and 2024 first-round picks Cam Whitmore and Reed Sheppard vying for minutes on a deep and talented roster, it remains to be seen what the appetite will be in Houston for adding another young player to the mix.
Knueppel’s perimeter shooting, instinct for the game, toughness, and maturity would seemingly give him a better chance to enter the lineup and add value in the short term than other prospects in this range, especially if the franchise pivots toward a Sheppard/Amen Thompson backcourt in the future, with Jalen Green eligible to become an unrestricted free agent in 2027. — Givony
What we’re hearing about the Rockets: The Rockets will be a major hub for trade activity in the lead-up to draft night, as their roster is clearly in a different place than any other lottery-selecting team with regard to the franchise timeline.
There’s likely to be a significant debate about what the Rockets should do with this pick, as they are a prime target for an “all-in” type of move for a veteran star like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, or Ja Morant, but they also have salary and luxury tax implications to think about long-term with Green and Alperen Sengun’s extensions kicking in this offseason, and significant spending on the horizon with several other big decisions looming in the form of Fred VanVleet’s team option and Steven Adams’ unrestricted free agency. — Givony
Portland Trail Blazers
Odds of the number 1 pick: 3.8% | Odds of being in the top four: 16.9%
If they are in the top four, they should choose…
- Flagg
- Harper
- Bailey
- Edgecombe
Most likely selection if they stay at number 10: Derik Queen, Maryland, power forward/center
Queen brings a level of offensive potential that separates him from the other big men in this draft, but he will need to refine his habits and put more effort into defense to maximize his opportunity to excel in the NBA.
The Trail Blazers have an excellent rim protector in Donovan Clingan who could help cover Queen in double-big lineups, making him an interesting consideration at this spot if Portland is willing to bet on his talent and play that way. Having an interior playmaker like Queen could take some pressure off their guards and, eventually, make their offense more dynamic. — Woo
What we’re hearing about the Trail Blazers: Portland’s roster took a small but important step this season, with internal development and the addition of Deni Avdija putting the team within striking distance of a play-in spot. Ownership rewarded general manager Joe Cronin and coach Chauncey Billups with extensions, providing the Blazers’ leaders with greater stability moving forward.
There’s still work to be done to improve the team, with Clingan helping to solidify the defense, Toumani Camara looking like a find, and Scoot Henderson ideally ready for more responsibility. Rival teams have been curious about Portland’s competitive timeline, and the direction this offseason takes will be indicative of their urgency to compete. An unlikely stroke of luck in the lottery would be massive in determining that direction. — Woo
Dallas Mavericks
Odds of the number 1 pick: 1.8% | Odds of being in the top four: 8.5%
If they are in the top four, they should choose…
- Flagg
- Harper
- Edgecombe
- Bailey
Most likely selection if they stay at number 11: Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina, power forward
Murray-Boyles will likely be ready to contribute off the bench next season, with a level of toughness and maturity to his game that scouts appreciate. His productivity and consistency, even in a losing situation at South Carolina, have kept him in the first-round picture and should make him a consideration for teams that could use immediate depth, such as Dallas.
The Mavs have a true rim protector in Dereck Lively II, which would allow Murray-Boyles to play the 4 spot, the role he is best physically suited for, and could be an immediate value addition here. In a draft class full of younger prospects, the Mavs might want to target a slightly more experienced player here. — Woo
What we are hearing about the Mavericks:
The consequences of the Luka Doncic trade are still resonating in the NBA, with Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison placing himself and the team under a large microscope heading into next season.
That Dallas has its own selection, and a small chance of moving up in the draft, is perhaps a small consolation after a wave of injuries effectively ended their season. The Mavericks should be
