NBA Contracts Analysis: How much will the stars charge in free agency?

The NBA’s free agency this summer presents a cold reality: beyond renewals with current teams or “sign-and-trade” deals, free agents are primarily facing the Brooklyn Nets, the only team with enough salary cap space to offer contracts exceeding $30 million. Half the league has the non-taxpayer mid-level exception of $14.1 million. To analyze the complexity of free agency negotiations, ten of the most prominent free agents of this offseason were selected and their next contract was examined. This list will not include LeBron James of the Los Angeles Lakers, as according to May reports, everything indicates that the player will exercise his contract option for $52.6 million for next season. In case he becomes a free agent, the 40-year-old player could sign a contract of up to three years and $175 million with the Lakers.

(Note: The order below is based on the rankings of the top 25 free agents of the 2025 offseason.)

James Harden

LA Clippers | Guard Free agent ranking: 2 Best fit as a free agent: LA Clippers Proposed offer: Two years, $79 million. (The second-year salary, $41 million, has $10 million guaranteed. It increases to $25 million if the Clippers reach the conference finals and is fully guaranteed if they reach the NBA Finals.) An All-Star appearance and a first All-NBA nomination since 2020 should lead Harden to seek a raise and a multi-year contract. Harden recorded the fifth-most minutes of any player this season and participated in 79 games, his most in a regular season since 2016-17. As a result, Harden became the only player this season with 1,500 points, 500 assists, 100 steals, and 50 blocks.

Because James has a player option, it would be irresponsible of me not to have contingency plans. But my intention is that, if he doesn’t exercise his option, we can reach an agreement that works well for James and for the Clippers.

Lawrence Frank, president of basketball operations for the Clippers

Considering the lack of teams with salary cap space, Harden’s age (recently turned 37 years old) and the importance of financial flexibility in the 2026 offseason, the Clippers can be creative with their next contract. The $38 million salary in the first year is an increase over his $36.3 million player option, but still gives them flexibility to use their full non-taxpayer mid-level exception of $14.1 million. The second year not only benefits Harden financially, but also the Clippers if they reach the conference finals for the first time since 2021.

Kyrie Irving

Dallas Mavericks | Guard Free agent ranking: 3 Best fit as a free agent: Dallas Proposed offer: Three years, $113 million. The $113 million contract is beneficial for Irving and the Mavericks. The $35 million price tag next season is $8 million less than Irving’s player option and gives Dallas greater flexibility to operate below the second salary cap. The Mavericks now have access to the $5.7 million taxpayer mid-level exception to sign a temporary replacement for Irving. If the nine-time All-Star exercises his $43 million option, the Mavericks only have the veteran minimum exception and exceed the second salary cap. While there is a decrease in salary next season, Irving is guaranteed an additional $70 million in new money. The 33-year-old player suffered a torn left ACL in March, but is still part of the Mavs’ future.

The team we are bringing back is a championship-caliber team. We hope Kyrie will be back with us next year. When he recovers from his injury, we believe we will compete for a championship.

Nico Harrison, general manager of the Mavs

Irving’s three-year contract coincides with Anthony Davis’.

Julius Randle

Minnesota Timberwolves | Forward Free agent ranking: 4 Best fit as a free agent: Minnesota Proposed offer: Four years, $121 million. (The fourth year of the contract is guaranteed if the Timberwolves reach the NBA Finals in 2026, 2027, or 2028.) Randle is not a restricted free agent like Giddey and Kuminga, but he faces a discouraging market if he declines his $30.9 million player option and enters free agency. That doesn’t mean the forward and the Timberwolves shouldn’t reach an agreement on a new contract. Randle’s good play to end the regular season (averaged 18.2 points in the last 21 games) carried over to the first two rounds of the playoffs, where he had eight 20-point games and averaged 23.9 points. But in Games 2 and 4 in the Wolves’ conference finals loss to the Thunder, Randle scored a combined total of 11 points. The new four-year, $121 million contract (the player option is replaced with a new salary) is beneficial for Randle and the Timberwolves. Saving $4 million (Randle’s first-year salary would be $27 million) positions Minnesota to bring back reserves Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, staying below the second salary cap.

We very much appreciate how the market could be. We are cautiously optimistic that we are in a good place with all the guys [Randle, Reid and Alexander-Walker]. The most important thing is that they want to be here.

Tim Connelly, Timberwolves President of Basketball Operations

The contract exceeds the $117 million extension Randle signed with New York in 2021 and grants him nearly $90 million guaranteed for the next three seasons.

Fred VanVleet

Houston Rockets | Guard Free agent ranking: 5 Best fit as a free agent: Houston Proposed offer: Three years, $80 million. (The second year has $15 million guaranteed and the third season is a team option.) VanVleet’s next contract will play a role in Houston’s flexibility this offseason and in the coming years. The Rockets could exercise their $44.9 million team option before June 29 and then use the guard as a valuable trade chip if a deal materializes (potentially for Kevin Durant). However, by accepting the option, Houston becomes a luxury tax team above both salary caps. The most logical thing is to reject the option and negotiate a new contract with additional years but less money in the first year. For example, a salary that starts at $29 million (and then decreases each season) leaves Houston $20 million below the second salary cap. VanVleet finally recovers the $44.9 million option that is rejected, but in two seasons. Due to potential extensions for Rockets’ young forwards Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason, VanVleet’s second year is partially protected and the third season is a team option. In the unlikely scenario that Houston declines the option and doesn’t re-sign VanVleet, they would have available the non-taxpayer mid-level exception of $14.1 million.

Myles Turner

Indiana Pacers | Center Free agent classification: 6 Best fit as a free agent: Indiana Proposed offer: Three years, $90 million. (The third year of the contract increases to full if Turner is named to the All-Defensive first team in 2026 or 2027.) The Pacers and their longest-tenured player find themselves in a unique situation. Because Turner renegotiated and extended his contract in January 2023, he cannot extend it before June 30. (Both parties can negotiate a new contract starting from the NBA Finals.) Indiana hasn’t paid a luxury tax penalty since 2005-06. However, as reported by Brian Windhorst and Shams Charania, Indiana is willing to incur the tax to sign their starting center. They are $20 million below the tax at the start of the offseason. A contract that starts at 30 million dollars and remains stable would achieve two things: Due to a change in the CBA this offseason, teams pay a less punitive tax penalty if they exceed the tax by up to 11.4 million. A contract starting at 30 million dollars costs Indiana only a 16 million penalty after their roster is complete. The signing of Turner also leaves them 7 million below the second salary cap. There is concern that a Turner contract starting at $30 million could affect the Pacers’ great depth, as both Aaron Nesmith and Bennedict Mathurin are eligible for extensions this offseason. Mathurin is a restricted free agent next summer if a new deal is not reached. The new contract would give Turner the tenth-highest salary among all NBA centers. Turner had 144 blocks this season, the third most in the league. He is the only player with at least 150 three-pointers and at least 125 blocks.

Josh Giddey

Chicago Bulls | Shooting Guard Free agent ranking: 7 Best fit as a free agent: Chicago Proposed offer: Five years, 125 million dollars. The average salary of 25 million dollars seems low, considering that Giddey is coming off the most complete season of his career. He joined Michael Jordan as the only Bulls players to average at least 10 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists in a season. And since mid-February, Giddey averaged 22.6 points, 10.3 rebounds and 9.1 assists. Giddey’s six triple-doubles tied for fourth place in a single season in franchise history. In addition to the numbers, there is the understanding that restricted free agency should give the Bulls a competitive price advantage to keep Giddey, especially with Brooklyn as the only team that could sign the guard with a significant offer.

I think he fits in very well here. I hope to see him here in the coming years. I feel very good about Josh and his future here.

Arturas Karnisovas, Executive Vice President of the Bulls

Jonathan Kuminga

Golden State Warriors | Forward Free agent ranking: 9 Best fit as a free agent: Golden State, Brooklyn Proposed offer: Three years, 81 million dollars. (The last year is a player option.) Projecting a new contract for Kuminga is like trying to solve a Rubik’s Cube. Like Giddey, the 22-year-old player is a restricted free agent and Golden State has the advantage, considering the lack of available money that teams have to offer in free agency. However, unlike the Bulls’ guard, Kuminga’s fourth year was a rollercoaster. He went from coming off the bench at the start of the season, to an undefined role after Jimmy Butler’s trade, to averaging 21 points in the Warriors’ second-round loss to the Timberwolves. Regarding his next contract, the only thing guaranteed is that Golden State will offer the forward a qualifying offer of $7.9 million before June 29th. I know how we can work better with him. But as far as guessing how everything is going to play out or what the contract or signing and transfer agreements and things like that might look like, honestly, at this point I’d be totally guessing. A contract that starts at $25 million gives Golden State the flexibility to complete its roster and stay below the second salary cap limit.

Ty Jerome

Cleveland Cavaliers | Guard Free agent classification: 15 Best fit as a free agent: Cleveland, Atlanta, Brooklyn, Charlotte, Sacramento Proposed offer: Four years, 40 million dollars. (The last year is a team option.) Jerome is one of the best backup shooting guards in free agency and should see a considerable pay raise compared to his $2.6 million salary in Cleveland last season. After playing only two games last season, Jerome finished second in the Sixth Man voting in 2024-25. Finally healthy, Jerome played 70 games, averaging career highs in points (12.3), field goal percentage (52%), and three-point percentage (43%). Cleveland had an 11-point advantage per 100 possessions with Jerome on the court during the regular season. Re-signing with Cleveland should be the obvious choice, considering that starting point guard Darius Garland could miss the start of the regular season after toe surgery and the Cavaliers can offer a contract of up to four years and $64 million, the most of any team outside of Brooklyn. However, Cleveland is not only a luxury tax team for the first time since 2018, but is also $13 million over the second salary cap. A starting salary of $14 million adds an additional $80 million in tax penalties and puts Cleveland even further over the second salary cap. Basketball operations president Koby Altman told the media after the season that owner Dan Gilbert has given the front office “no restrictions to incur the tax”. Atlanta, Brooklyn, Charlotte, and Sacramento have a void at the starting or backup point guard position and have the full non-taxpayer mid-level exception of $14.1 million available to offer. A starting salary of $10 million is comparable to the extension that T.J. McConnell signed with the Pacers last season.

Naz Reid

Minnesota Timberwolves | Forward Free agent ranking: 17 Best fit as a free agent: Minnesota, Detroit Proposed offer: Three years, $57 million. (The last year is a player option.) Due to the Timberwolves’ finances and most other teams not having more than $14.1 million to spend in free agency, Reid’s next contract is difficult to project even though the former Sixth Man of the Year had his best season. Reid averaged career highs in points (14.2), rebounds (6.0), and assists and finished second among reserves in points during the 2025 postseason. He finished first in the 2024 postseason. By declining the $15 million player option and signing a three-year, $57 million contract with the Timberwolves or a team that has cap space, Reid gets a slight salary increase. More importantly, he has the option to extend or become a free agent in 2027. Meanwhile, the Pistons could create up to $17 million in cap space (or possibly more with a trade), but at the expense of free agents Tim Hardaway Jr., Dennis Schroder, and Malik Beasley. Minnesota and Reid could reach an extension before the start of free agency or he could exercise his contract option and then extend in July. Reid is allowed to sign a four-year, $87.2 million extension starting June 27. The $15 million player option for next season is replaced with a starting salary of $19 million. Reid could also opt in and then sign a four-year, $94.2 million extension. The $21 million salary in the first year begins in 2026-27.

Bobby Portis

Milwaukee Bucks | Forward Free Agent Classification: NR Best fit as a free agent: Milwaukee, Atlanta, Detroit Proposed offer: Three years, $54 million. At a minimum, Portis will get an increase in his player option of $13.4 million. However, similarly to Reid, Portis’ market consists of signing (or extending) with his current team or targeting teams with the $14.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception. His next contract in Milwaukee could be tied to free agent center Brook Lopez. If Lopez decides to sign elsewhere, the Bucks have the flexibility to give Portis a raise and also use their full non-taxpayer mid-level exception to bring back Gary Trent Jr. or sign a starting point guard to replace the injured Damian Lillard.